Exports are gradually picking up. “One Belt, One Road” is expected to lead foreign trade in the second half

The half of 2015 is about to pass, and China’s foreign trade investment, which has been “running at a low level” for several months, has shown a glimmer of warmth.
The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on the 8th showed that in May, China’s total import and export value was 1.97 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), a decrease (year-on-year, the same below) of 9.7%. Among them, exports were 1.17 trillion yuan, down 2.8%, and the decline continued to narrow by 3.4 percentage points compared with April.
In this regard, Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC Greater China, analyzed that export growth in May was slightly higher than expected and the decline narrowed. Among them, China’s exports to the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries and regions, especially the United States A slight recovery may be the main reason.
However, while exports continued to show warmth, imports still fell by 18.1% in May; the trade surplus expanded by 65% ​​to 366.8 billion yuan.
Qu Hongbin believes that there are no obvious signs of overall recovery in external demand, and coupled with the strengthening exchange rate, China’s export prospects are still not optimistic.
As a reference indicator, China’s foreign trade export leading index has declined for the third consecutive month in May, which also indicates that China’s export pressure will still be high in the middle of this year.
Li Jing, vice chairman of JP Morgan Asia Pacific, pointed out to a reporter from China News Service that China’s current total foreign trade import and export volume is unsatisfactory, largely due to the fact that international commodity prices are still at low levels.
According to customs statistics, in the first five months, the average import price of China’s imported iron ore, crude oil, and coal fell by an average of about 40%.
“The import figures are falling sharply every month now because the price of goods is lower compared with last year.” In short, China purchased the same goods at a cheaper price. Li Jing said that due to the sharp decline in the prices of raw materials, oil, copper ore and other commodities imported by China compared with the same period last year, China’s trade surplus has increased significantly.
As the world bids farewell to the latest commodity super cycle, how do you view the trend of China’s foreign trade in the “second half” of this year?
“China’s scale is large enough to bring about a new super cycle.” Vale CEO Fei Muli recently told reporters that both the “One Belt and One Road” and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank are very good projects that can Bring benefits to the people in the region.
Fei Muli pointed out that China is fully prepared to bid farewell to the super cycle under the new normal. At the same time, concepts such as the “One Belt, One Road” and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will help maintain the continued prosperity of the Chinese and global economies.
Experts believe that with the gradual deepening of the construction of the “Belt and Road” (Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road) advocated by China, China’s foreign trade in goods, and even the flow of people and capital, may usher in a new round of peaks. .
On May 12, the State Council of China announced the “Several Opinions on Accelerating the Cultivation of New Advantages in Foreign Trade Competitiveness”, which for the first time proposed to comprehensively improve the level of economic and trade cooperation with countries along the “Belt and Road” and accelerate the formation of a new strategy for Central Asia, Russia, Mongolia, and New Eurasia. Bridge, international thoroughfares in Southeast Asia, South Asia and other regions.
On May 27, China Customs, the customs of countries along the Belt and Road and the Eurasian Economic Union reached a number of cooperation consensuses in Xi’an on issues such as promoting cooperation in customs clearance facilitation among countries along the Belt and Road.
“The Belt and Road Initiative will definitely drive China’s overall import and export and trade with many neighboring countries.” Li Jing said that in the past 10 years, the trade volume between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road Initiative” has grown at an average annual rate of 19%. It is estimated that in the next five years, China will import US$10 trillion in goods, invest more than US$500 billion overseas, and have about 500 million outbound tourists. “Among these, China’s neighboring countries and countries along the ‘Belt and Road’ will undoubtedly be the first to benefit.”
“The first step in the implementation of the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative is infrastructure construction, including roads, bridges, railways, ports, etc., which will vigorously promote trade between China and neighboring countries in the next five or six years.” Li Jing said, The deepening of the “Belt and Road” construction will continue to promote the development of trade between China and related countries, and is expected to lead the second half of China’s foreign trade.