Judging from May foreign trade data, in May this year, China’s foreign trade export leading index was 42.3%, which has been rising for three consecutive months. Exports are relatively stable, while import performance is weak. The industry expects that with the expansion of corporate demand, imports will return to the normal range in June, my country’s exports will continue to improve in the next 2 to 3 months, and foreign trade growth will maintain a rebound trend.
According to customs statistics, in May this year, my country’s total import and export value was 2.185297 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% from a 3.1% decrease in the previous four months. Among them, exports were 1.202845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% from a 4.8% decrease in the previous four months, an increase of 4% from April; imports were 982.452 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9%. A decrease of 5.9% from April, the trade balance was 220.393 billion yuan.
In US dollars, the country’s total import and export value reached US$355.02 billion in May, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Among them, exports were US$195.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%; imports were US$159.55 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; the trade surplus was US$35.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 74.9%.
After seasonal adjustment, the total import and export value in May this year increased by 5.8% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 9.5% and imports increased by 1.5%; the total import and export value increased by 0.1% month-on-month, of which exports increased by 5.9% and imports decreased by 6.2% ; The trade surplus was 220.393 billion yuan, an increase of 70.3%.
Judging from the data for the first five months, my country’s total import and export value was 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. Among them, exports were 5.4 trillion yuan, down 2.7% year-on-year; imports were 4.9 trillion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year; the trade surplus was 436.6 billion yuan, narrowed by 13.6%.
my country’s foreign trade export leading index further strengthened. In May this year, my country’s foreign trade export leading index was 42.3%, an increase of 0.4% from April, and has increased for three consecutive months. In terms of imports, with the intensive introduction of long-term and short-term support policies, corporate demand has further expanded, and imports in June are expected to return to the normal range. Generally speaking, my country’s exports will continue to improve in the next 2 to 3 months, and foreign trade growth will maintain a rebound trend.
The growth rate of major export commodities rebounded
The year-on-year growth rate of total import and export value in May this year rebounded slightly. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of exports increased significantly, rising from 0.86% in April to 7%. The year-on-year growth rates of clothing, footwear, and plastic products were 2.7%, 9.3%, and 7% respectively. This data shows the rebound of traditional labor-intensive industries against the trend, and also reflects the increasing external demand in the international market.
In addition, the growth rate of mechanical and electrical exports rebounded from -2.4% to 6.6%. The export growth rate of high-tech products rebounded from -10.9% to 4.8%.
The export growth rate of electromechanical and high-tech products is highly correlated with the European and American manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). In May, the growth of the global manufacturing PMI accelerated, rising from 51.9% in April to 52.2%. In China, it was 50.8%, an increase of 0.4% from April, rising for three consecutive months and hitting a new high for the year. The improvement in sub-indicators indicates that my country’s exports of electromechanical and high-tech products still have room for growth in the second half of the year, and the economic stabilization trend is relatively obvious.
The rebound in export growth in May was better than market expectations. The reason was, on the one hand, the impact of a low base; on the other hand, it was driven by favorable factors such as the weakening of the RMB, the introduction of policies to stabilize foreign trade growth, and the continued improvement of external demand.
Imports of major commodities declined
In terms of imports, all varieties fell across the board. Among the main imported commodities, the import volume of iron ore, coal and copper decreased due to factors such as financial product financing mortgage fraud cases and higher prices in overseas markets. Among them, iron ore imports were 77.38 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%. As inventories continue to hit new highs and thread prices fall, iron ore prices are expected to fall further in the future.
The trade surplus in May expanded by 70.3%. In addition to the increase in export growth year-on-year, it was largely related to the sharp drop in import volume this month. Analyzing the reasons, the main manifestations are: the decline in domestic demand and product prices; the government has strengthened the monitoring of illegal mortgage financing of bulk commodities.
The proportion of total imports and exports in seven provinces and cities including Guangdong and Jiangsu fell back, and exports in the central and western regions were active. Exports in the central and western regions have maintained rapid growth. The export growth rates of some central and western provinces and regions such as Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Chongqing and Guangxi were 52.6%, 46.8%, 42.4%, 41.9% and 41% respectively. The reason is that in addition to the recent measures introduced by the central government to severely crack down on trade arbitrage in the southern coastal areas, rising labor costs and the internal appreciation of the RMB have contributed to the structural difficulties of traditional processing trade. Operating costs remain high, forcing enterprises along the southeastern coast to relocate to Southeast Asian markets where labor is cheaper. On the contrary, enterprises located in the central and western regions still maintain their labor cost advantages to a certain extent. In the future, there is still room for further expansion of export quotas in the central and western regions.
Expanding international market demand
From the perspective of export countries, my country’s total import and export volume with major trading partners such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan has shown a steady upward trend, with cumulative import and export increases of 2.6%, 9.1%, and 1.1% respectively year-on-year. Trade with Hong Kong and Taiwan continued to decline, with cumulative imports and exports falling by 28.3% and 14.3% respectively year-on-year. The growth rate of exports to Hong Kong and Taiwan is still at a low level. The reason may be related to the fact that the other countries continue to maintain high-intensity trade supervision.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, May 2014The number of door-to-door employment continued to rise, with an increase of 217,000 compared with April. The unemployment rate of 6.3% was basically the same as last month. Along with the further recovery of the U.S. economy, the continued improvement in employment conditions will definitely play a positive role in reducing the unemployment rate. In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve Board has decided to gradually withdraw from its monetary easing policy (QE) within this year. Although this decision will have a certain impact on China, the extent will be limited. Therefore, if we can maintain the premise that the U.S. economy does not slow down with the withdrawal of QE3, China’s future exports to the United States will not suffer a big blow.
In Europe, the European Central Bank lowered the overnight deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.1% for the first time. It will also launch a long-term refinancing plan totaling 400 billion euros, and will also terminate the Securities Market Program (SMP) sterilization operations in the future. Prepare to implement quantitative easing (QE). The series of quantitative easing monetary policies launched by European countries are conducive to the recovery of demand, the recovery of the Eurozone economy, and the maintenance of my country’s import and export quota to the EU in the second half of the year within the expected range of stable growth.
In Japan, due to the impact of the domestic consumption tax rising to 8%, Japan’s domestic market demand has been further hit. In order to get rid of measures centered on domestic demand, Japanese companies will further expand overseas markets, thus affecting the export of Chinese auto parts products to Japan. In the future, as the consumption tax is further raised to 10%, it may have a continued negative impact on the export of Chinese products to Japan.
