After many months of sluggish foreign trade, China’s imports and exports began to turn positive in May. Data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday showed that China’s total import and export value in May was US$355.02 billion, an increase of 3%. Among them, exports were US$195.47 billion, an increase of 7%, an increase of 6.1 percentage points from April, and the growth rate hit a four-month high; imports were US$159.55 billion, a decrease of 1.6%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from April.
Data show that imports and exports to the EU, the United States, ASEAN and Japan maintained growth, while trade to Hong Kong, China declined. In the first five months, the total value of China-EU bilateral trade was 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.1%. The total value of bilateral trade between China and the United States was 1.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.6%. In the first five months, the total bilateral trade value between my country and ASEAN was 1.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2%. The total value of bilateral trade between China and Japan was 777.38 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1%. In the first five months, the total bilateral trade value between the mainland and Hong Kong was 808.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.3%.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the import and export growth rate picked up in May, especially the sharp rebound in exports, which was mainly due to the “technical” rebound caused by the disappearance of the high base of exports to Hong Kong. The decline in imports was mainly due to the combined effects of two factors: the increase in import costs caused by the depreciation of the RMB and the continued decline in international commodity prices. “The disappearance of the high base should contribute about 10 percentage points, while exports only increased by 7% in May, indicating that the current overall foreign trade situation is not optimistic and there is still greater pressure.” Bai Ming said.
Fan Jianping, chief economist of the State Information Center, also believes that improving export numbers in May may not mean that exports are improving. “The improvement in export numbers in May is a ‘numbers game’, mainly due to the reduced base water content in May last year.”
It is understood that in order to support the stable growth of foreign trade, the State Council recently issued “16 measures” to stabilize foreign trade. Subsequently, various ministries and commissions have intensively introduced policies to support foreign trade. The General Administration of Customs recently issued 20 measures to stabilize foreign trade.
In Bai Ming’s view, although the base has disappeared and the policy of stabilizing foreign trade growth is conducive to the stabilization and recovery of import and export in the future, the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year is still full of uncertainties. On the one hand, the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce and the economic improvement of the United States and Europe are beneficial to my country’s exports; on the other hand, the EU’s negative interest rates and the United States’ launch of an investigation into my country’s photovoltaic double-counterfeiting have also cast a layer on foreign trade growth. shadow. Overall, the overall situation of foreign trade in the second half of the year will be stable and increase, and some months may have high growth. Foreign trade may not hold back the overall economy, but it is expected to become the main engine of economic growth as in previous years. Not too possible.
