Vietnam National Textile and Apparel Group (Vinatex) said that Vietnam’s exports will still face difficulties in the first half of 2023, but not too bad; and is still surprised by unpredictable changes in 2022 , such as: the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as soaring oil prices, inflation, and interest rates, all of which have led to a sharp decline in import market demand.
However, Vinatex estimates that its overall revenue in 2022 will exceed VND19.5 trillion (approximately US$830 million), an increase of 15% compared with the same period in 2021, which is more than the original target 8%, and the overall profit exceeded VND1 trillion, 14.6% higher than the original target. With many markets slowing down, the above data is quite encouraging.
Vinatex President LeTien Truong proposed three possible scenarios in 2023. In the best case scenario, the global economy will stabilize after the second quarter and geopolitical conflicts will end; the group’s exports will grow by 4-5% compared with 2022. In the medium case, instability continues, inflation remains, and interest rates continue to increase until the third quarter; its exports will be unchanged compared with 2022. In the worst-case scenario, if the global economy slips into recession, trade revenue in 2023 may be about 5% lower than in 2022.
According to the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) forecast, Vietnam’s export value will reach US$44.5 billion in 2022, an increase of 10% compared with 2021.
Vinatex pointed out that under optimistic circumstances, textile and apparel exports can reach 47-48 billion US dollars in 2023, and in the worst-case scenario, it can reach 45-46 billion US dollars; and added, How an enterprise adapts to market changes will affect its development in each scenario.
Under optimistic conditions, global market instability will be controlled, and all economic activities in the textile and apparel industry will resume after the first quarter of 2023; trade income can amounted to US$48 billion.
However, VITAS Chairman Wu Dejiang said that in the second scenario, the global market will recover in the second half of 2023, and exports are estimated to reach US$45 billion.
At present, if there are no long-term orders for textile and apparel products in the international market, companies can switch to producing lower-value products; in 2022, with their diversified markets and products, the growth trend can still be seen.
No matter which scenario it falls into, the textile and apparel market shows no signs of rebounding before the first half of 2023.
However, experts believe that there is still good news in 2023, such as: the new crown epidemic is being controlled, the world is gradually adapting to the new normal, and the Asia-Pacific region is expected to become the fastest growing region , China will relax epidemic prevention policies, logistics costs will be reduced, etc.
