On June 14th, the price of polyester yarn stopped rising and was lowered. Today, on June 15th, the price of polyester yarn is still slightly lowered. The vigorous price increase is already on the verge of collapse!
Polyester production and sales continue to decline
Starting from June 8, polyester production and sales have been sluggish for 6 consecutive days. The following table is a comparison table of polyester production and sales in the past week. We can see that the current polyester production and sales are basically hovering around 30%, which means that the price began to increase at the beginning of the month. When production and sales soared, “Our factory predicted that the price of polyester yarn would not drop this month, so we prepared a month’s inventory in advance.” The boss of a weaving factory said.
In other words, the surge in production and sales at the beginning of the month has overdrawn the polyester market for the entire month in advance. It seems that part of the inventory has been removed, but in fact it is just that the inventory has been transferred to the weaving manufacturers. Next, the price will increase as you wish. Weaving Manufacturers just sat back and watched the show, polyester yarn became “priceless”, and polyester inventory soon reached high levels again. According to data from Silkdu.com, the current polyester inventory is 25.3 days old. When the inventory level is high, in order to clear the inventory, polyester manufacturers are generally more likely to offer profit promotions.
Polyester manufacturers are tired of following up
The price of polyester filament has been rising along with the cost side since April this year. Now the prices of conventional 150D polyester are: 150D FDY 9650 yuan/ton, 150D POY 9200 yuan/ton, and 150D DTY 10500 yuan/ton. Compared with the lowest price in April, they increased by 1,430 yuan/ton, 1,500 yuan/ton, and 1,200 yuan/ton respectively.
The main reason for the increase in polyester yarn is that the cost side continues to rise and market demand is weak in the early stage. Polyester filament manufacturers have no intention of following up on price adjustments. Subsequently, as cash flow losses intensify, polyester filament manufacturers have to speed up their pace and follow upstream. adjust the price. This market seems familiar. After checking the data, I found that at the same time last year, the surge in crude oil led to a rise in raw materials. However, with the flash crash of crude oil prices in July, polyester prices also collapsed.
Weaving factories continue to wait and see
The time has arrived in mid-June, and the traditional off-season of July and August in the textile market is coming soon. The recent changes in the textile market have not been much. However, since August is approaching the peak season, the weaving market has always been prepared to stock up in advance, so it is relatively Generally speaking, July is the slowest month of the year.
Just because it has entered the off-season, there is a lack of market orders, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The current market is still in a relatively difficult stage. Entering the high-temperature season means that the market in the first half of this year has basically come to an end. During this period, due to rising costs, weaving manufacturers reported that profits continued to shrink, resulting in order negotiations being particularly cautious.
Now that there are no orders and fewer orders, there is no sense in increasing the weaving operating rate. Therefore, the current operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is still maintained at less than 70%. It has basically been at this level for the past six months. According to the rules of previous years, the weaving operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang began to rise sharply at the end of July and early August. But whether this trend will emerge this year requires continuous attention to whether orders will explode after the epidemic.
In short, most companies are still bearish on the market outlook, and polyester prices have been rising recently due to cost support. As a result, weaving manufacturers have been unable to keep up with the rise in raw materials. The terminal market was once weak in the first half of the year, and most finished product inventories were affected by the epidemic. The cumulative value has reached a high level for the same period in previous years, which may force weaving companies to reduce production and suspend production in the later period.
In the short term, as the weak downstream situation may continue into the fourth quarter, even if polyester factories want to repair their cash flow without demand, they can only maintain steady growth. If the crude oil end suddenly collapses during this period, it will As a result, polyester prices fell rapidly.
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