exploded! On the first day after the Dragon Boat Festival, polyester yarn had a good start. The price of polyester yarn was adjusted twice a day, and the production and sales reached about 300%! Today, the price of polyester yarn has risen again. Every day, some people say that the price will fall, but the fact is that the price has been raised three times in the first week of June.
Will polyester prices loosen in the near future? The editor’s opinion is that it is difficult!
01 The price of polyester yarn has risen uncontrollably!
First of all, at present, the main reason affecting the price of polyester yarn is the cost. Costs experienced an overall rise during the Dragon Boat Festival, and crude oil and PX skyrocketed. Now the international crude oil price is 120 US dollars per barrel. This price is completely out of control. The impact of war is small, but crude oil producing countries just do not expand. production capacity, and firmly grasp the price advantage in its own hands, so the collapse of crude oil prices in the short term may be small.
Under the continuous price increase on the cost side, the price increase of polyester yarn can only be said to be involuntary. We can see that although production and sales surged yesterday, even with the price increase, polyester yarn profits are still at a loss. According to Duwang’s data monitoring, the profits of the three conventional polyester yarns are: 150D FDY -322 yuan/ton, 150D POY -302 yuan/ton, and 150D DTY 130 yuan/ton. From the profit comparison chart with the previous working day, we can see that the losses have expanded after the price increase. Although the current losses are still able to bear the pressure on large manufacturers, there may not be enough room for further profit concessions.
Finally, although the textile industry has traditionally entered the off-season due to seasonality, due to the impact of the epidemic, peak seasons are not busy and off-seasons are not slow. In fact, orders placed in the usual peak seasons are spread out at various times. point, so the price of polyester yarn will not be greatly affected by the demand side. For downstream weaving manufacturers, after experiencing the violent fluctuations in the market last year, they have gradually become accustomed to this model, and have also begun to slowly accept the reality of high polyester prices. Although there is still resistance, but at present through According to the survey, the raw material inventory of the general weaving factory is about 20-30 days, and the procurement mode has changed to buy as you go, so the replenishment rhythm will become more frequent.
02 The slow growth of polyester yarn may be a good thing!
The rising price of polyester yarn has given everyone a headache, but from another perspective, maybe it’s actually a good thing? I believe many people will say that the editor is making sarcastic remarks after seeing this, but that may actually be the case!
First of all, as we all know, after weaving manufacturers purchase raw materials, because the production of gray cloth takes time, there is a delay in the price increase of polyester filaments being transmitted to the price of gray cloth. Assume that the raw materials for a piece of cloth were purchased at a time of high prices. If the price of raw materials for this piece of cloth drops during the weaving period, when production is completed, even if everyone knows that the price of raw materials was high before, the cost support has been lost. It will be more difficult if prices rise.
Secondly, gray fabrics are currently facing the problem of overcapacity. Without the support of raw material costs, it will be very difficult for prices to rise in this era of involution. Therefore, the slow rise in polyester prices may have a certain boosting effect on the industry as a whole.
To sum up, the rise in polyester yarn in June requires more attention to the trend of the cost side. The trend of PTA this month may follow the continued high level of crude oil, and with the end of concentrated profit sharing at the end of May and the “buying increase” driven by price increases in early June , polyester factory inventory has indeed eased and is within a tolerable range, so polyester prices will still rise in the short term. However, considering that this part of the inventory seems to be digested, in fact, due to insufficient demand downstream entering the off-season, it may just be inventory transfer. Polyester inventory may rise again at the end of the month or the beginning of next month, and the profit promotion at the end of May may be replicated this month.
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