Since late September, due to dual energy consumption control restrictions, nylon manufacturers have reduced production due to power rationing and insufficient operation. In addition, with strong support from the raw material end, inventory has declined. The price of nylon ran at a high level this week (October 18-22), and the price continued to rise slightly.
As of October 22, nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D) in Jiangsu /24F) is quoted at 21,360 yuan/ton, which is 300 yuan/ton higher than last week and about 600 yuan/ton higher than the pre-holiday price, an increase of 2.74%; nylon POY (high-quality product; 86D/24F) is quoted at 19,050 yuan/ton , compared with the pre-holiday price, 725 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.88%; the price of nylon FDY (high-quality product: 40D/12F) was reported at 22,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week’s price, and an increase of 625 yuan/ton from the pre-holiday price. Yuan/ton, an increase of 2.74%.
From the perspective of price trends, the domestic nylon fabric market continues to operate at a high level, with prices continuing to rise slightly this week. Under the influence of the dual control policy, the nylon industry has not been spared, and nylon-related companies The activation rate will be subject to certain restrictions. Nylon manufacturers in Jiangsu continue to suspend production or partially suspend production, and inventories are further reduced.
Impact of power rationing policy
It is understood that the power rationing policy continues, that is to say, in the last two months at the end of the year, double power rationing The situation will become more severe, and the operating rate of chemical fiber companies will also face continued low conditions. The downturn caused by production line production restrictions and continued low operating rates is fatal to textile and chemical fiber companies. Under the surge in costs, textile and chemical fiber companies can only choose to increase prices to pass the pressure to downstream and “self-rescue”. Since October, nylon companies have not stopped raising prices. Some companies even remind customers to confirm the availability and stocking cycle before making purchases.
Upstream raw material cost support
Raw material cyclohexanone: According to monitoring by Business Society Data show that from October 9 to October 15, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market rose from 12,760 yuan/ton to 12,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% during the week. The price increased by 0.31% month-on-month and 119.15% year-on-year. Returning from the holidays, driven by the demand for the new production of cyclohexanone units, the raw material pure benzene market first rose, and the downstream solvents of cyclohexanone were actively purchased, which formed a short-term support for the cyclohexanone market. However, the downstream chemical fiber market is generally average, and the enthusiasm for purchasing high-priced cyclohexanone is significantly lower than before the National Day. Some cyclohexanone factories have high inventories, and they mainly sell goods at a profit. At present, the mentality of domestic cyclohexanone traders is bearish, and the focus of cyclohexanone transactions has dropped.
Entering October, domestic nylon prices continue to rise, with strong support from upstream raw material costs. PA6 is the main raw material for nylon consumer yarn. According to the bulk list data of SunSirs, the domestic market trend of PA6 has been volatile recently, and the spot prices of various brands have been mixed. As of October 21, the mainstream offer price of Zhongnian 2.75-2.85 by sample companies was around 17833.33 yuan/ton, which increased or decreased by +2.88% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. In terms of upstream caprolactam, the current raw material pure benzene has fluctuated and risen, and the cost-end support is acceptable. The supply is tight, and caprolactam has fluctuated at a high level after rising. Downstream procurement is on demand, and business operations are at a low level. Terminal demand was affected by environmental protection policies and failed to achieve the expected results during the peak season, and the centralized replenishment market weakened. Market fundamentals are still stable, and it is expected that the spot price of PA6 will remain stable in the short term.
Downstream market demand
On the demand side, in October, the traditional peak season has arrived, and the downstream market demand has increased slightly. As a rule, market transactions after the National Day Investment sentiment will pick up, and downstream orders will be further released after the National Day. However, there are too many uncertainties in the market this year. Terminal demand is affected by environmental protection policies and has not achieved the expected results in the peak season. Downstream procurement is on demand, and companies are starting to operate at a low level.
Forecast of the market outlook
The current domestic nylon market is affected by raw materials and power restriction policies, and nylon prices are running at high levels. Under the continued influence of the power restriction policy, the nylon industry has not been spared. Production capacity has been compressed and inventories have begun to fall from high levels. Analysts from SunSirs believe that under the strict power and production restriction measures and without significant improvement on the demand side, domestic nylon prices will continue to run smoothly at a high level, and consolidation will be the main focus in the short term.
</p
