This week, domestic cotton prices fluctuated and surged; international cotton prices rebounded after falling, and were overall lower than the previous week; domestic and foreign cotton yarn prices were stable; polyester staple fiber prices rose.
1. Domestic cotton prices fluctuated and surged
This week, with the advancement of new cotton listings, , Xinjiang seed cotton purchases gradually returned to rationality, and the seed cotton purchase price fell back. However, driven by long funds, Zheng cotton oscillated and adjusted to rise again. From October 11 to 15, 2021, the average settlement price of the main cotton futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 21,408 yuan/ton, an increase of 153 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous week; the national cotton price represents the market price of standard-grade lint cotton in the mainland. The average B index price is 21,482 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,446 yuan/ton from the previous week, an increase of 7.2%; the Chinese cotton purchase price S index, which represents the average price of white cotton grade 3 seed cotton and lint cotton in the country’s main cotton-producing provinces (regions), is 21,572 yuan/ton. tons, down 527 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 2.4%.
2. International cotton prices rebounded after falling, with the average price lower than last week’s level
This Last week, affected by the USDA’s increase in global cotton production and decrease in consumption, ICE cotton futures prices fell briefly; the general rise in overseas commodity markets led to a rebound in international cotton prices. From October 11 to 15, the average settlement price of the main contract of the U.S. Intercontinental Exchange Cotton Futures (ICE) was 106.78 cents/pound, down 2.65 cents/pound or 2.4% from the previous week; it represents the arrival of imported cotton at the main port in China. The average price of the International Cotton Index (M) is 120.93 cents/pound, an increase of 3.17 cents/pound from the previous week, a decrease of 2.6%, and the import cost in RMB is 19,329 yuan/ton (calculated based on 1% tariff, including Hong Kong miscellaneous and freight), a decrease of 496 yuan/ton, or 2.5%, from the previous week. The international cotton price was 2,154 yuan/ton lower than the domestic cotton price, and the internal and external price difference expanded by 1,943 yuan/ton compared with the previous week.
3. Cotton yarn prices at home and abroad are strong
This week, after cotton prices rose sharply, cotton yarn The price quotation was subsequently increased significantly, but the market trading atmosphere was deserted and there were few transactions. International cotton prices have driven up the price of foreign yarn, but the increase is significantly weaker than that of domestic yarn. The competitiveness of imported cotton yarn has increased. Recently, the enthusiasm for inquiry and delivery in China’s bonded areas has recovered. Currently, conventional domestic yarn is 1,424 yuan higher than imported cotton yarn. Ton. The price of gray fabrics in the downstream market has followed suit, and most companies are waiting and watching. Polyester staple fiber prices continue to rise.
4. Market outlook
International financial markets fluctuate, and northern hemisphere cotton continues to Listed in large quantities. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to the lowest level since March last year. The U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 5.4% year-on-year in September, hitting the highest level since July 2008. There are still disagreements about the timing of the Fed to start tapering its bond purchases. Cause market volatility. In the international cotton market, cotton from the northern hemisphere is gradually coming on the market, and cotton production in western Texas in the United States is expected to increase. With the cessation of monsoon rains in India, new cotton production has picked up. Pakistani seed cotton is on the market in large quantities. Data from the USDA’s monthly supply and demand report show that global cotton production in 2020/21 increased by 151,000 tons from the previous month to 26.188 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.24%. Consumption volume decreased by 159,000 tons from the previous month to 26.868 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. After the National Day, the amount of foreign yarn purchased by China increased. However, considering the sharp increase in cotton and cotton yarn prices, customers’ price acceptance is limited, and the downstream market is slightly unable to continue to follow the increase. In the short term, international cotton prices have risen to relatively high levels, and we should be wary of the risk of rising risk aversion in the market.
The measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices are steadily advancing, with initial results showing, and the new flower purchase market has cooled down. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) was generally stable in September 2021, and the increase in the national PPI (Producer Price Index) continued to expand. Faced with the intertwining of upward inflation and downward economic pressure in the fourth quarter, many institutions It is expected that the MLF (medium-term lending facility) will be continued smoothly. On October 14, Wang Jianjun, Director of the Economic and Trade Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that the current national cotton reserve resources are sufficient and guaranteed, and the country will strengthen market regulation and guide cotton prices to return to a reasonable range. In the domestic cotton market, cotton harvesting in Xinjiang has accelerated. According to data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of October 15, the national new cotton picking progress was 31.7%, of which Xinjiang picking progress was 30.2%. The seed cotton purchase market has cooled down, and the high purchase cost has caused a decline in market enthusiasm for harvesting. The current purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton has dropped by about 1 yuan/kg compared with that during the National Day. Recently, after the prices of cotton and cotton yarn have risen sharply, real enterprises have been under great pressure, and the market’s wait-and-see mood is still strong. In the short term, the power of capital is extremely prominent, and we need to be alert to related risks. At the same time, high cotton prices have attracted the attention of relevant departments, cotton supply continues to increase, and the market is expected to gradually cool down.
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