Since mid-September, the spandex market price has continued to consolidate. Although it has fallen back from the high during the year, it is still at a high level. During the holidays, the spandex industry chain did not change much. Affected by domestic power cuts, the overall operating load of the chemical fiber weaving industry was limited. The demand for follow-up was just average, and the raw material end remained consolidated and strong. The court is cautiously watching.
Strong costs
Domestic spandex industry chain price trend chart in 2021
Source: Longzhong Information
After the holiday, the price of BDO moved up to 30,500 yuan/ton, returning to the high level of the year again. , the BDO factory restarted and shut down for maintenance, the overall market supply was tight, and the focus of market negotiations increased slightly; the PTMEG market, the main raw material for spandex, continued to consolidate at a high level. As the BDO market continues its upward trend, cost pressure is increasing. However, with the restart of PTMEG Great Wall Energy Equipment, the overall operating rate will increase, supply growth is expected, and spandex demand will follow up and stabilize, and manufacturers’ actual order negotiations will remain at a relatively high level. Domestic 1800 molecular weight bulk water offers are concentrated at 47,000-49,000 yuan/ton, and actual negotiations are based on 46,000-48,000 yuan/ton.
Pure MDI fluctuated and consolidated. The market consolidated and digested the gains. The post-holiday transaction atmosphere was general. The secondary market followed the market and the supply side maintained an advanced state. There was a supply and demand game on the market. The demand performance was average, but the supply side was due to export gaps. Still exist, resulting in export volume expected to exceed historical highs, buffering the imbalance between domestic supply and demand. In addition, there is a strong atmosphere for the advancement of raw material products, which will support the overall market. Therefore, Longzhong Information predicts that the domestic pure MDI market will still have the ability to advance, but it will be affected by demand. The impact of restrictions does not rule out the possibility of a slow rise. The current mainstream offer in the East China market is 22,000-23,500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream offer for imported goods is 22,000-23,000 yuan/ton.
Weaving orders are general
Comparison of the start-up of chemical fiber comprehensive looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang from 2019 to 2021
Source: Longzhong Information
In terms of demand, the operating rate of downstream textile and weaving enterprises showed a significant upward trend after the holiday, mainly due to early parking and load reduction After the production restriction tasks of enterprises are over, most companies choose to start up during the holidays. Although the startup rate has increased, considering that it coincides with the National Day holiday, most companies choose to extend the holiday to around the 5th and 6th of this month. At present, the operation rate of water-jet loom enterprises has increased to over 50%, an increase of 19% from before the holiday. The operation rate of warp knitting machine enterprises has increased to 50-60%, an increase of 13% from before the holiday. The operation rate of circular knitting machines has remained stable. front level. The operating rate has partially increased, but it is still difficult to change the low operating situation. The “double limit” may continue until the end of the year, so it is difficult for most enterprises to significantly increase their load. In the absence of production power, most market goods prefer to consume the inventory of factories and fabric merchants. The early pressure on the inventory of regular gray fabrics has been significant, and there has been obvious room for relief in the near future. In addition, the upstream textile raw materials have increased, and the frequency of order inquiries from most domestic brands has increased. , superimposed on some seaport lines, freight rates have shown a downward trend, and orders from foreign customers have shown signs of recovery compared with the previous period. However, considering that the impact of power cuts will continue, it is difficult to increase the startup rate of downstream textile and weaving enterprises, which may maintain the current level of operation, coupled with insufficient power in subsequent terminal demand. Although there are signs of a slight increase in new orders, the sustainability is limited.
Spandex prices are under pressure
Source: Longzhong Information
In terms of subsequent new production capacity this year, Xinxiang Bailu and Xiao Xing (Ningxia) is expected to have new production capacity put into the market within this year. The new production capacity will enter the market and the supply will increase or even be excessive. This will inevitably affect the current spandex price, and there is a reasonable possibility of a correction in the future. The current low inventory of spandex supports the market, and the demand side only relies on some urgent needs to follow up. There are power restrictions and production restrictions in various regions, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The current demand side of spandex has a greater guiding role, and the dual-control power restrictions will weaken in the future. After the downstream inventory is digested, there is no shortage of orders picking up, and demand pressure is expected to be alleviated.
Trends of spandex operating rate
Source: Longzhong Information
Currently involving spandex companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, such as Hyosung (Jiaxing), Huahai, Taiguang, Fanglian, Schultz, Qingrong, Sihai, Zhongbai Spandex and other companies require power and production restrictions. It ranges from 30% to 50%. Xiamen Lilong is currently in full suspension due to the epidemic. Fujian has also issued a power restriction policy in October, and Hengshen Spandex has also appropriately reduced its production.
Taken together, the terminal weaving start-up load increased slightly after the holiday, and other chemical fiber raw materials such as polyester, nylon, viscose, and cotton all rose sharply, which was guided by rising market sentiment. Next, there is no shortage of customers to appropriately replenish their positions in spandex. The cost side currently has little impact on spandex. The follow-up of subsequent demand orders is a key factor affecting spandex. Demand follow-up has been in a passive situation at present. However, under the influence of power restrictions and production restrictions, the overall industry chain The reduction in product output may be beneficial to the balance of supply and demand in the overall market in the later period. In the short term, the supply and demand of individual product links will be disrupted, and there will be many uncertainties in the follow-up of weaving. As far as the spandex market is concerned,As new spandex enterprises continue to be put into production smoothly, and there is no significant change in domestic and foreign weaving orders, there will be great pressure on the high price of spandex; if the supply cannot be increased, the subsequent power restriction and production restriction policy will lead to a reduction in spandex output, and the strong spandex situation may continue.
</p
