During the National Day holiday, overseas energy crises have become increasingly severe. According to the British “Financial Times” report, U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm said on Wednesday that the U.S. government is considering using emergency oil reserves to alleviate the sharp rise in gasoline prices. Granholm also did not rule out reinstating the crude oil export ban. The news sent international oil prices down nearly 2% on Wednesday.
But the “plot” reversed on Thursday. A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Energy stated that there are currently no plans to activate the strategic petroleum reserve, nor is it seeking to ban crude oil exports. Affected by this, international oil prices rebounded from a deep V trend. As of Thursday’s close, the November contract of WTI crude oil futures closed at US$78.30/barrel, an increase of 1.12%; the December contract of Brent crude oil futures closed at US$81.95/barrel, an increase of 1.07%.
A U.S. Department of Energy spokesman said on Thursday that there are currently no plans to activate the strategic petroleum reserve or seek to ban crude oil exports. Affected by this, international oil prices rebounded from a deep V trend. As of Thursday’s close, the November contract of WTI crude oil futures closed at US$78.30/barrel, an increase of 1.12%; the December contract of Brent crude oil futures closed at US$81.95/barrel, an increase of 1.07%.
Yang An, head of energy and chemical R&D at Haitong Futures, believes that the factors affecting oil prices have changed dramatically. Previously, the market’s focus has been on the global epidemic situation, tight economic recovery, and supply and demand. In terms of changes at both ends, the assessment of oil prices is relatively rational. Now the market focus has focused on the energy crisis. Due to natural gas shortages in Europe and Asia, this crisis is spreading to other regions around the world. Natural gas prices have soared. At the same time, coal supply shortages in China, India and other countries are also continuing. Against this background Oil prices have also shown a clear acceleration trend, and the assessment of oil prices has been separated from the supply and demand level. Under the constant advocacy of various institutions, the market is more worried about a huge crisis in the entire energy market, which also makes it difficult for investors to price oil prices reasonably.
Zhaojin Futures analyst Yu Pengsen believes that there are two main factors affecting the current trend of crude oil: First, the northern hemisphere has entered the seasonal off-season for crude oil demand, and U.S. refineries are undergoing autumn maintenance. , demand has declined, and global crude oil inventories have reached an inflection point since the previous week and have begun to accumulate; secondly, the United States has acquiesced not to block Nord Stream 2, and Nord Stream 2 has begun testing gas transmission, causing international natural gas and coal to plummet. European coal jumped short and opened lower yesterday, once falling 13%, and the entire energy market pattern changed drastically.
In fact, the crude oil market does not have an unsolvable supply shortage like the natural gas and coal markets. “The crude oil market has maintained a tight supply situation under the background of active and passive supply control, and whether the demand in the face of high oil prices can be as strong as market expectations is also a question mark. In addition, China, the United States, etc. Big consuming countries can also stabilize oil prices by releasing ample strategic reserves at any time, and investors need to remain vigilant about this,” Yang An reminded.
U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm said on Wednesday that the U.S. government is considering using emergency oil reserves to mitigate the sharp rise in gasoline prices. International investment bank Goldman Sachs believes that the release of strategic oil reserves by the United States will only slightly lower oil prices. Goldman Sachs said that if the United States releases strategic oil reserves to the market, it will only bring a downside risk of $3/barrel to the average Brent crude oil price of $90/barrel predicted by the bank at the end of this year. The United States plans to release up to 60 million barrels of oil reserves. Additionally, a ban on U.S. crude oil exports would significantly disrupt the U.S. oil market and could have a bullish impact on U.S. retail fuel prices priced based on Brent prices.
Yang An said that the current logic of oil prices is relatively confusing. Under the atmosphere of energy crisis, the market will gradually downplay some negative factors in the crude oil market, including the fact that U.S. crude oil production is gradually recovering and Negative factors such as the beginning of seasonal accumulation of storage, the supply and demand gap in the crude oil market may narrow to a basic balance by the end of this year, and the negative feedback of high oil prices on supply and demand are not the focus of the market for the time being. Investors are paying more attention to the impact of the skyrocketing prices of natural gas and other energy sources on oil prices. Although natural gas prices have fluctuated violently at high levels in recent days, and have cooled down their enthusiasm for long positions, relatively speaking, the current energy crisis theme is still there. There is considerable room and time window for speculation. If replacement demand really brings about 500,000-1 million barrels per day of new demand, oil prices will still have the power to rise. Therefore, although the oil price above US$80/barrel is a high-price area, do not rush to guess the price. </p
