AsofSeptember30,2021,thedomesticcommoditypriceindexBPIwas1,260points,settingarecordhighinthecycle,comparedwiththelowestpointof660pointsonFebruary3,2016Thepointsincreasedby90.91%.(Note:Theperiodrefersto2011-12-01tothepresent)
The textile index also hit its highest level since August last year. As of September 30, 2021, the textile index was 1,007 points, an increase of 15 points from the beginning of September, and a decrease of 12.89% from the highest point of 1,156 points on September 3, 2018 during the cycle. , an increase of 47.87% from the lowest point of 681 points on August 13, 2020. (Note: The period refers to 2011-12-01 to the present)
From a price perspective, there are 11 commodities in the textile sector that have increased month-on-month in the commodity price increase and decrease list in September 2021, of which 5 commodities have increased by more than 5%, accounting for 29.4% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were nylon FDY (8.25%), cotton yarn 32S (6.49%), and lint (6.38%). There are 5 commodities that have declined month-on-month, and 1 commodity has declined by more than 5%, accounting for 5.9% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; the top three products with the largest declines are viscose staple fiber (-6.71%), rayon yarn ( -4.48%) and dry cocoon (-3.23%), with an average monthly increase or decrease of 2.28%.
New cotton harvest, US cotton surges, cotton prices approach ten-year high. On September 29, the price of the main cotton futures contract of the US Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has been trading for the seventh consecutive day. Rising daily, the settlement price exceeded $1 for the first time in ten years, setting a new historical high. This mark has not been touched since 2011. Over the past year, ICE cotton futures have risen by 48%. Domestic cotton prices have also risen simultaneously. As of September 30, the CF2201 contract closed at 20,005 yuan/ton, a new high in the past eight years. Spot prices have fluctuated upward since April last year. As of September 30, the average market spot price was 19,113 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.37% from the beginning of April 2020, approaching a ten-year high. Affected by the foreign epidemic, production has been hindered, and orders have returned to China. The demand for cotton is strong. At the same time, downstream and traders are actively rushing to harvest new cotton, jointly pushing up cotton prices. Driven by strong raw material costs, some cotton yarn prices have followed suit. The purchase of new cotton has begun, and prices have risen far beyond the affordability of downstream textile companies, so they are wary of the risk of a market correction.
The chemical fiber market “is not to be outdone”, nylon FDY ranks first It can be seen from the price increase and decrease list of textile commodities in September 2021 that some products in the chemical fiber market are also “not to be outdone.” The nylon industry is supported by favorable costs and maintains an upward trend. Among them, nylon FDY has the most obvious increase, with a monthly increase of 8.25%, ranking first, followed by nylon POY and nylon DTY, which have increased by 3.97% and 3.90% respectively.
The maintenance of raw material caprolactam equipment has increased, and the market supply is in short supply. The current market price has exceeded 16,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of more than 10%. The supply of another raw material, cyclohexanone, is also tight, and the market price continues to rise to 12,880 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 20% from the beginning of the month. It is expected that in the short term, the nylon market will be stimulated by traditional peak season signals and continue to be driven by costs, and prices are still expected to rise.
Multiple device plan The price of maintenance PTA can still be expected to restart in early September. The industry’s operating rate will increase to more than 80%. Affected by weak demand, PTA factories have sufficient supply and inventory has rebounded significantly, especially with the upgrade of the energy “dual control” policy in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The impact on the weaving industry has increased, and shutdowns and production cuts have increased significantly. Beginning at the end of the month, PTA maintenance will be intensified, and the current industry operating load is around 76%. In September, the domestic PTA spot market generally fluctuated and rose. As of September 30, the average domestic market price was 5,069 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.33% from the beginning of the month and a year-on-year increase of 53.10%. Next, multiple PTA units announced maintenance plans, and Hengli Petrochemical’s October contract supply is supplied at 60%, so the supply side will improve. The short-term weak supply and demand pattern of PTA still exists, but thanks to the strong support of crude oil prices and the gradual implementation of factory equipment maintenance in the later period, PTA prices can still be expected. The good news on the cost side boosted polyester prices and rebounded.
In September, polyester filament factories continue to accumulate inventory, and periodic price reductions and promotions are the main focus. As production cuts and restrictions intensified, the accumulation of polyester filament stocks slowed down. At the same time, boosted by raw materials, it began to rebound significantly in the second half of the year. Therefore, the overall market in September showed a trend of first shock and then rebound. Among them, polyester FDY has the most obvious increase. As of September 30, polyester FDY has a monthly increase of 6.35%, followed by polyester DTY, polyester POY, and polyester staple fiber, which have increased by 5.38%, 4.95%, and 3.52% respectively. Affected by the “dual control” policy, the impact is greater the further downstream, especially after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the weaving operating rate dropped sharply to the lowest level in the same period in recent years.The start-up load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has now dropped below 50%, indicating a negative upgrade on the demand side. However, as production shutdowns are reduced for maintenance and raw material prices continue to be strong, the polyester market may continue to rise.
At present, the “Golden Nine” quality of the terminal textile industry is insufficient and exhausted, which restricts upward mobility. In terms of exports, due to the return of overseas orders, clothing exports have maintained good growth momentum. From January to August 2021, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were US$198.468 billion, an increase of 5.90%, of which textile exports were US$92.773 billion, a decrease of 11.47%, and clothing exports were US$105.695 billion. , an increase of 27.95%. However, we need to be vigilant that domestic retail clothing retail sales are in decline. From January to August, textile and clothing retail sales totaled 856.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%. However, retail sales in August were only 89.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%.
The “dual control” policy has affected the entire textile industry chain. Against the background of the general rise in bulk commodities, it is expected that The cotton spinning industry chain is affected by the continued surge in US cotton and the high cost of harvesting new domestic cotton. The short-term market will still be easy to rise but difficult to fall. Most products in the chemical fiber market benefit from strong support on the cost side, and the market outlook is still promising. From the demand side, factory production restrictions in September have reduced products to low levels. If orders improve during the peak terminal consumption season in October, it may accelerate the digestion of inventories in all links, which will be conducive to the restoration of industrial profits. Taken together, the textile market in October remained volatile and strong.
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