The U.S. dollar index rose sharply overnight, U.S. bond yields rose sharply, U.S. stocks fell sharply, and U.S. crude oil inventory data was negative, and oil prices fell as much as $2.50 from their highs. The lower cost side gives PTA reason to adjust. It closed at 5,098 yuan, down 2.52%.
With the recent introduction of “dual control” policies in various places, it has had a greater impact on the supply of high-energy-consuming industries. As far as the polyester industry chain is concerned, “dual control” has had a great impact on the upstream and downstream of PTA. All aspects will have a certain impact. At the same time, international crude oil prices have continued to hit new highs in recent years, supporting the entire chemical product cost and market sentiment. This has boosted the PTA market from falling to rising. With strong cost support and a reduction in supply and demand, the PTA market has been passively driven up.
Since September, the number of polyester production cuts and shutdowns due to the dual control policy has been increasing. The polyester load has been declining. Some polyester production capacities that were originally planned to restart have also chosen to delay the start-up or wheeling out. Check. According to Futures Daily, the polyester load has dropped to 81.6% so far. In terms of texturing and weaving, since the dual control of energy consumption in Nantong, Jiangsu Province was intensified in early September, companies in Jiangyin, Suqian, Shuyang, Siyang and other places have also been affected one after another. Later, the scope of influence also expanded to Jiaxing, Shaoxing and other places in Zhejiang. .
The burden on the downstream has dropped significantly, and the demand side continues to weaken, forcing PTA companies to increase maintenance. After the middle of the month, domestic PTA production companies began to report shutdowns intensively. Hengli Petrochemical Line 2, Yangzi Petrochemical, Fujian Baihong and Tongkun Line 1 had to reduce their parking load, and the early parking devices have not yet been restarted. As a result, the PTA supply and demand table has shifted from a substantial accumulation since mid-August to a balanced state.
However, in recent days, some devices have been restarted one after another. Due to the impact of power cuts, polyester and terminals are expected to continue to reduce production. According to Longzhong Information tracking, PTA has once again turned into daily storage status since yesterday. However, Longzhong Information believes that the PTA market will still be dominated by costs. As long as crude oil does not collapse, it is difficult for the market to see a sharp correction. Moreover, dual control may be conducive to the digestion of inventory in the industrial chain. After the inventory is digested, the market may face a new wave of rise. It is expected that the PTA market will move upward at a volatile pace. </p
