This year, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has slightly decreased year-on-year. However, thanks to the generally suitable weather conditions, cotton is growing well, the yield level is high, and a high yield is basically a foregone conclusion. According to predictions from the statistics department, Xinjiang’s cotton planting area in 2021 will be 37.18 million acres, a decrease of 349,000 acres from the previous year, and the total output is expected to be 5.2006 million tons, an increase of 39,600 tons from the previous year.
In mid-to-late September, new cotton harvesting began sporadically. Southern Xinjiang was still dominated by cotton, and the purchase price was significantly higher. Especially after the Mid-Autumn Festival, machine-picked cotton began to appear on the market one after another. The purchase price exceeded 10 yuan/kg, and futures prices also rose sharply, far exceeding the affordability of textile companies, and market risks increased significantly.
With the large-scale launch of new cotton and changes in downstream textile cotton demand, as well as market price fluctuations, the possibility of cotton purchase prices opening high and falling The current market sentiment is impetuous and the mentality of betting on the future market has intensified, which is not conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the cotton industry.
At present, the Autonomous Region Development and Reform Commission, Market Supervision and Administration Bureau and other departments have taken measures such as strictly controlling the growth of processing capacity, accelerating the construction of corporate credit standard system and strengthening quality supervision to ensure the cotton market Smooth operation. In the next step, the autonomous region will intensify market supervision, severely crack down on behaviors such as driving up cotton prices, rushing to harvest cotton, and speculation, comprehensively rectify the lack of strict implementation of standards and technical specifications in acquisition, processing, sales, and storage, and implement cotton quality supervision. Promote the sustainable and healthy development of the cotton industry in our region.
China Cotton Association warns: Cotton prices have risen sharply and companies must guard against business risks
Since July , affected by factors such as strong cotton demand, tight cotton expectations, and financial support, cotton prices continued to rise sharply, and then fell and stabilized as the country adjusted its reserve cotton rotation policy and other measures. After entering the new year in September, new cotton harvesting started sporadically, and the purchase price increased significantly. Especially after the Mid-Autumn Festival, machine-picked cotton began to be launched one after another. The purchase price exceeded 10 yuan/kg, and the price of lint cotton exceeded 20,000 yuan/ton. , futures prices have also risen sharply, far exceeding the affordability of textile companies, and market risks have significantly increased.
This round of price increases is driven by the overall increase in commodity prices, and speculation also plays a certain role. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, it is not enough to support excessive increases in cotton prices.
From the perspective of cotton supply, output is stable with a slight decrease, and resources come from diverse sources. According to a survey by the China Cotton Association, the country’s cotton planting area has declined year-on-year this year. However, due to generally suitable meteorological conditions and high yield levels, the total output has remained relatively stable, expected to be 5.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. In terms of imports, the state issued an additional 700,000 tons of sliding tax quotas, and import volume increased significantly. According to customs statistics, a total of 1.78 million tons of cotton were imported from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%. Regarding the release of reserve cotton, from July 5 to September 24, a total of 600,000 tons were traded, with a transaction rate of 100%.
From the perspective of cotton demand, the textile situation has improved, but the growth trend has weakened. Since the beginning of this year, my country’s textile production and sales situation has continued to improve. Cotton yarn sales profits are relatively high, and production and sales are booming, which has driven cotton prices higher. However, the support for gray fabrics, clothing and other downstream products has been declining. Especially in the recent past, the inventory of finished products has been obvious. Growth, price rises are weak, companies’ wait-and-see mentality has intensified, and there are still many uncertainties such as changes in the epidemic and trade frictions, making it difficult for cotton prices to continue to pass on. The China Cotton Association estimates that consumption in 2021 will be 8.43 million tons, basically the same as the previous year.
Cotton has the characteristics of centralized acquisition and year-round sales. The acquisition situation in the new year will have a significant impact on the market operation throughout the year. Especially in recent years, the proportion of machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang has increased significantly. , the collection is concentrated in a shorter period of time, and the risk is further increased. The current market sentiment is impetuous, and the mentality of betting on the future market has intensified. Especially in Xinjiang, there is a serious excess of processing capacity. There have been signs of competition for acquisitions, which may promote further price rises, lead to disordered acquisitions, decline in cotton quality and other problems, which is not conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the cotton industry. . Without sufficient demand support, a sharp rise must be followed by a sharp fall, and market risks require a high degree of vigilance!
At present, the country’s market regulation resources are sufficient, which can effectively make up for the domestic cotton production and demand in the new year. gaps and ensure market supply. In the next step, relevant departments will take timely measures to strengthen market regulation according to market changes and textile demand situations, such as increasing the release of cotton reserves and increasing cotton imports. They will also strengthen supervision of the futures and spot markets, maintain the order of new cotton acquisitions, and severely crack down on speculation. , Promote the smooth operation of the market and the healthy development of the industry. The China Cotton Association reminds all parties in the industry to calmly analyze the situation, respond rationally, guard against business risks, and not to follow the trend of speculation or blindly enter the market to buy.
Mainland cotton purchase prices are generally higher than last year
Early September In half a month, the China Cotton Association conducted a survey on cotton picking and sales among 1,362 designated farmers in more than 260 counties and cities in 11 provinces and municipalities in the mainland. The survey results show that most of the cotton has entered the boll-breaking and boll-catching stage and the picking stage, and a very small number of cotton has entered the post-wheat period.After the oil harvest, cotton picking has not yet started. In early September, the climate was normal and the weather was fine, which was very beneficial to cotton growth and boll opening. Because the amount of cotton picked was not large, the cotton purchase work had not started in full, and only sporadic traders purchased it. Affected by the rise in lint prices, the purchasing price of seed cotton this year is generally higher than last year; cotton farmers report that the quality of cotton is the same as last year.
Based on the estimated output, picking volume, and delivery volume of the cotton farmers surveyed, as of September 15, the mainland picking progress was 29.23%, 4.74 percentage points slower than the same period last year; delivery progress It was 3.00%, which was the same as last year. The average selling price of cotton in the mainland was 7.2 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 22.87%.
The weather in most provinces in the Yangtze River Basin was fine in the first half of September, which was conducive to the growth of cotton, and there was a slight drought in some areas. Due to the impact of the typhoon, most areas of Jiangsu Province experienced heavy rains and strong winds for two consecutive days on the 13th and 14th, which adversely affected cotton. As of September 15, the cotton picking progress in the Yangtze River Basin was 23.71%, 2.8 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the sales progress was 3.79%, 2.6 percentage points faster than the same period last year. A small amount has been sold in Hubei and Anhui provinces, and scales have not yet been opened in other places. The average price of cotton sold by cotton farmers in the Yangtze River Basin was 6.60 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 14.98%.
The weather in the Yellow River Basin in early September was suitable for cotton growth and fluffing. However, affected by the typhoon last month, the number of rotten bolls at the bottom increased, and a quarter of the picked cotton was dead-flap cotton. As of September 15, the cotton picking progress was 33.86%, 8.56 percentage points slower than the same period last year; the delivery progress was 2.33%, which was basically the same as last year. There were a small number of deliveries in individual areas of Hebei, Henan, and Shanxi provinces, and ginneries in other areas Construction has not started yet, and no one has purchased it. The acquisition is expected to start after the National Day. The average price of cotton sold by cotton farmers was 7.80 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 30.87%.
Cotton growth in Gansu is generally good. As of September 15, cotton has been picked sporadically. The picking progress is 0.74%, which is 0.46 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The purchase scale has not yet been opened. </p
