According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic PTA spot market fluctuated and rose in September. As of September 29, the average domestic market price was 5083 yuan/ton, up 3.49% from the beginning of the month, and up 52.89% year-on-year.
Recent statistics on changes in domestic PTA factory equipment
In early September, PTA maintenance equipment restarted, and the industry’s operating rate increased to more than 80%. Affected by weak downstream demand, PTA factories have sufficient supply and inventory has rebounded significantly. Especially with the upgrade of the energy “dual control” policy in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, it has had a negative impact on the weaving industry. As the impact intensified, parking and production cuts increased significantly. Beginning at the end of the month, PTA maintenance efforts were intensified, and the industry’s operating load dropped to around 72% of the current level.
International crude oil prices of raw materials continue to rise. On the one hand, after the passage of Hurricane “Ida”, it has brought negative consequences to the oil and gas production in the United States. It has caused the greatest damage in 13 years, raising concerns about tight supply. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is significantly positive. U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped to the lowest level since 2018. Coupled with increased demand from refineries, oil prices have received strong support in the short term. As of September 28, the settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was US$75.29/barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was US$79.09/barrel.
The traditional peak season demand for downstream polyester and terminal weaving is not strong, and there is no change in September. Under the current “dual control” policy, the impact is greater the further downstream, especially after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the operating rate of polyester and textiles dropped sharply to the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and the operating load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions fell below 50%.
In terms of price, polyester factories continued to accumulate inventory in September, and periodic price cuts and promotions were the main focus. With the intensification of production cuts and production restrictions, the accumulation rate of polyester yarns has slowed down. At the same time, boosted by raw materials, it has begun to rebound significantly in the second half of the year. Among them, polyester FDY has the most obvious increase. As of September 29, polyester FDY (150D/ The average price of 96F) was 8111 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 6.35%.
In terms of the textile industry, according to the Sun Business Textile Index, as of September 29, the textile index was 1,000 points, an increase from 992 points at the beginning of the month 8 points, a decrease of 13.49% from the highest point in the cycle of 1156 points (2018-09-03), and an increase of 46.84% from the lowest point of 681 points on August 13, 2020. (Note: The period refers to 2011-12-01 to the present)
In terms of terminal textile and clothing retail sales, the total retail sales of textile and clothing from January to August were 856.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%. However, retail sales in August were only 89.96 billion yuan, a new low for the same period since 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%. In terms of exports, from January to August 2021, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were US$198.468 billion, an increase of 5.90%, of which textile exports were US$92.773 billion, a decrease of 11.47%, and clothing exports were US$105.695 billion, an increase of 27.95%.
At present, the PTA market has sufficient supply, but the quality of the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” on the demand side is insufficient, and the overall market sentiment has cooled down before the National Day. However, many PTA units have recently been scheduled for maintenance, and Hengli Petrochemical announced that the October contract supply will be supplied at 60%, so the supply side will improve. Taken together, the short-term weak supply and demand pattern of PTA still exists, but thanks to strong support from the cost side and the gradual implementation of factory equipment maintenance in the later period, PTA prices can still be expected. The market outlook still needs to pay attention to the “dual control” policy and the trend of oil prices. </p
