International oil prices have risen for the fifth consecutive day. Just now, the price of Brent crude oil exceeded the $80 mark, hitting the highest level since October 2018.
This round of oil price rise is affected by many factors.
Against the backdrop of global economic recovery, crude oil consumption demand has rebounded strongly, faster than expected. Although the world is still affected by the epidemic, the spread of the “Delta” mutant strain has less impact on global flight operations than previously estimated.
The recent surge in natural gas prices is also stimulating the growth of crude oil demand. European gas prices have increased an astonishing 10 times, and US natural gas futures prices have reached their highest level since 2014. The increase in the cost of natural gas power generation has prompted the market to seek alternatives to fuel oil power generation.
On the supply side, due to the impact of hurricanes, offshore oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut down on a large scale since August, and oil and gas production has not yet fully recovered. U.S. natural gas production and inventories have both declined, with U.S. commercial crude oil inventories falling to their lowest in nearly three years last week to 414 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target price for Brent oil prices from US$80 to US$90 per barrel. Forecasts show that as the weather gradually gets colder and winter is approaching in the north, oil and natural gas prices will continue to rise.
CITIC Construction Investment Research reported that in the future, nearly 300,000 barrels of crude oil production capacity in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico region will still need to be restored. The relaxation of border controls in the United States will help the recovery of jet fuel demand, and the global Natural gas prices continue to strongly increase the substitute demand for crude oil, and multiple positive stimuli still exist. Crude oil is expected to maintain a strong trend. </p
