History is always surprisingly similar. Textile people are no longer unfamiliar with keywords such as “power rationing and production suspension”. After all, this is not the first time that large-scale power rationing and production suspension have been encountered.
In 2017, many places also issued power rationing notices:
2017 Power Limitation Notice
Looking back at the historical power rationing situation, China has had at least five large-scale “power rationing” events since 2003. The impact of “power rationing” on the economy can generally be summarized in two aspects. : On the one hand, continued “power rationing” directly affects industrial production. Take the large-scale “power rationing” in 2010 as an example. In Zhejiang and Hebei, where the “power rationing” was the most serious, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in that month dropped by 3.6 and 5.6 percentage points respectively. On the other hand, “power rationing” is spreading, and industrial supplies such as calcium carbide and coal are facing pressure from price increases.
Picture source: Jiemian News
Chemical fiber is a high-energy-consuming industry, and companies and markets are concentrated in The Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, which have the most serious power shortages, are extremely sensitive to the pressure of this year’s fierce peak power consumption. Although power cuts have been common in East China in recent years, and the tight power supply this summer has long been heard, it is understood that this year’s power consumption pressure is still far beyond the expectations of enterprises. After all, this year and last year The situation cannot be compared. Faced with such huge power pressure, whether the chemical fiber industry can withstand it has become a topic of concern to industry insiders.
The upstream and downstream impacts are different
Looking at them individually, the impacts are different. The impact of power restrictions on the downstream is greater than that on the upstream, which means that the impact on the demand side is greater than the impact on the supply side.
One of the reasons is that due to the strong continuity of production in the upstream chemical fiber equipment, the impact of power cuts on it is very prominent. , so local governments and relevant departments impose relatively small power restrictions on these devices. At the same time, the operating load of most chemical or chemical fiber equipment cannot be reduced without limit, which has prompted many companies to ensure the electricity consumption of upstream production by reducing post-processing electricity. Therefore, the lack of electricity will not cause particularly obvious pain to upstream production. .
The second reason is that many upstream companies are local large companies or industry leading companies, and generally enjoy the benefits of local government and power supply The department implements the policy of “grasping the large and letting go of the small” in terms of electricity consumption. According to relevant departments, in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, chemical fiber companies are relatively concentrated, and most of them are small and medium-sized enterprises. The local government cannot provide all-round care for electricity consumption. In principle, it only protects key enterprises.
The third reason is that currently more than half of domestic chemical fiber raw materials rely on imports, and the supply of imported raw materials is relatively less affected by domestic power restrictions.
The fourth reason is that China is a major exporter of textiles, and a considerable part of its chemical fiber products are used to produce textiles for export. When the power supply cannot be guaranteed, the impact on weaving enterprises will be severe. Taking orders is bound to have a big impact.
Power restrictions and production restrictions may become the norm
It will have a serious impact on the downstream weaving end The subsequent supply of raw materials will have to respond to demand and the time for supply to exceed demand will be lengthened. The impact of this wave of dual energy consumption controls on the chemical industry is currently just beginning. For some fields with relatively fast growth, especially with new technologies In areas related to energy demand, upstream high-energy-consuming industries may become a continuing supply bottleneck.
In the short term, some provinces still have red light warnings due to dual control of energy consumption, so they will introduce production restriction measures for some high-energy-consuming industries to ensure the dual control indicators throughout the year. To be completed, and due to the tight time and heavy tasks, relatively stringent measures may be adopted, which may further intensify the price increase of the entire textile industry chain.
In the long run, energy consumption indicators will become the core bottleneck factor limiting the expansion of new production capacity. Since the textile and chemical fiber industries are industries with relatively large energy consumption, Under this background, if there are such strong constraints on existing enterprises, especially on operating rates, then it is conceivable that it will be more difficult to add new production capacity indicators.
It is undeniable that power rationing has inhibited the excessive economic growth of the industry to a certain extent.
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