At present, the “dual control” policy on energy consumption is being promoted in many places across the country. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other provinces have imposed power restrictions and production suspension restrictions on high energy-consuming industries. The editor hereby reminds everyone that a new round of raw material price fluctuations is spreading in the current textile industry!
According to price monitoring, in the 38th week of 2021 (9.20-9.24), there are 7 commodities in the textile sector that have increased month-on-month in the commodity price increase and decrease list. The top three commodities with the highest increase are PTA (4.02%) , nylon FDY (0.76%), polyester staple fiber (0.65%). There were 5 commodities that declined month-on-month. The top three products were viscose staple fiber (-2.57%), rayon yarn (-2.01%), and cotton yarn 21S (-1.78%). The average increase or decrease last week was -0.05%.
Not afraid of downstream production cuts, The polyester chain continues to heat up
Recently, with the introduction of “dual control” policies in various places, it has had a greater impact on the supply of high-energy-consuming related industries. As far as the polyester industry chain is concerned, Said that “dual control” has a certain impact on all upstream and downstream links.
Judging from the energy consumption of each link in the polyester industry chain, the energy consumption in each link of the polyester industry chain from high to low is terminal weaving, polyester, coal-based MEG, oil-based MEG, PTA. The “dual control” of energy consumption in Jiangsu area turned on the “red light”, and the control upgrade began in mid-September; the “double control” of energy consumption in Zhejiang area turned on the “yellow light”, and the control was significantly upgraded in late September. Since the PTA production capacity in Jiangsu is 11.24 million tons and the ethylene glycol production capacity is 2.98 million tons, and the PTA production capacity in Zhejiang is 20.45 million tons and the ethylene glycol production capacity is 2.85 million tons, which account for relatively large proportions, the market is also paying close attention to PTA and MEG in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Device dynamics.
On the first day after the Mid-Autumn Festival, news of the suspension of printing and dyeing markets in Jiangsu and Zhejiang circulated in the market. In addition to downstream weaving, printing and dyeing, the start-up of polyester factories was also affected, including Tiansheng, Hengming, Jinxin, and Juxing. The total production capacity of the four companies is 2.5 million tons, and the overall production limit is around 50%. However, some companies have already moderately reduced production in the early stage. In addition, some medium and large texturing companies and chip spinning companies are also involved in production restrictions.
The 650,000-ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical will be inspected on the evening of September 22 until after the National Day; the 1.5 million-ton unit of Honggang Petrochemical will be inspected on September 14, and the entire 2.4 million-ton unit will be inspected on September 14. The restart time is to be determined; Hengli Dalian 2.2 million tons will be inspected on September 19, and the restart time is to be determined. At the same time, the supply of supplier Hengli Petrochemical decreased by 30% in October, which coupled with the stabilization of high oil prices, became an opportunity for PTA to rebound.
MEG is more affected by the “dual control” than PTA, mainly because the coal chemical industry consumes higher energy and the load is not high; in the “dual control” policy trend Under tight conditions, low MEG port inventories, and expectations of limited production of satellite devices, MEG’s recent growth has been higher than that of PTA and staple fiber. In terms of short fiber, due to its high energy consumption and production capacity mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Fujian and Zhejiang, it is greatly affected by the “dual control”. The short-term staple fiber production has been severely reduced, and the short-term supply of direct-spun polyester staple fiber has been tight.
The recent fluctuations in the polyester filament market have been mainly due to adjustments. Mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offered preferential promotions at the beginning of the week, and cautiously followed up with the boost of raw materials. The overall price fluctuation last week was on the warm side, among which The average price of polyester POY (150/48F) was 7,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61%, while polyester FDY (150D/96F) and polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) increased by 0.54% and 0.55% respectively.
The impact of dual control on terminals is expected to be alleviated due to the turnaround demand pressure
Based on the above, some textile raw material products have performed well under the support of favorable costs and supply. In addition, in the early stage of the “dual energy consumption control” upgrade in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, chemical fiber weaving enterprises have limited power supply, and the load of looms will further decline. However, the impact of dual control on terminals has recently turned around:
(1) Following the impact of dual control in Nantong in the early stage, Keqiao, Shaoxing also implemented power curtailment measures on printing and dyeing factories and polyester factories on September 21. Enterprises are also involved. The polyester operating rate is further expected to drop to 84%.
(2) Things turned around on September 23. Some dyeing factories in Shaoxing issued notices for workers to return to the factory in the afternoon, requiring workers to return to the factory on the 25th. According to the emergency notification from superiors, the original production suspension and holiday time have been changed.
In terms of exports, sea freight continues to rise, transportation turnaround times lengthen, and logistics costs increase, resulting in a contraction of overseas orders for textile and clothing. The downstream market sentiment is strong and the procurement of raw materials is cautious. It is expected that as winter orders are successively issued, Double “11” and the Christmas season are approaching, demand pressure is expected to be alleviated. </p
