2021 is a year of macro-inflation and policy guidance. In the first half of the year, macro-inflation has the dominant influence, and in the second half of the year the policy impact is more prominent. Under the background of the country’s “carbon peak-carbon neutrality” during the 14th Five-Year Plan, energy consumption The sudden attack of the dual control policy has made the entire industry uneasy.
It is reported that the second round and fourth batch of environmental inspections started on August 26 for the two major central enterprises in Shandong and Guangdong. At present, all of them have been settled in, and A series of environmental rectifications were launched. Textile enterprises have always been representatives of “high energy consumption”. Under the “dual control” policy and environmental protection supervision, many production enterprises have been affected. According to incomplete statistics, dozens of textile and chemical fiber clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, including Wujiang Shengze, Nantong, Changzhou, Jiangyin, Taicang and Shaoxing Keqiao, have carried out dual control and production restriction actions to varying degrees.
The Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are China’s main polyester production areas. As can be seen from the figure below, the polyester production capacity of Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces accounts for approximately 77% of the country’s total polyester production capacity.
Zhejiang is the largest production and marketing province, and Zhejiang is mainly concentrated in Huzhou, Xiaoshao, and Ningbo areas, and the polyester industry layout is relatively concentrated.
At present, the polyester industry chain in provinces with production restrictions due to “dual control” is highly concentrated. PTA production capacity accounts for 93% of the national production capacity, and MEG production capacity accounts for 70%. %, and the proportion of polyester production capacity reached 94%. The downstream spinning and weaving industries are mainly distributed in Fujian, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places. These industries have high energy consumption, and the “dual control” policy of the corresponding provinces is in the first level warning, so the actual terminals will be affected even more.
At present, for the polyester industry chain, dual control means that PX and PTA are temporarily No device has been affected by dual control and has been reduced in production, but it cannot be ruled out that there will be devices affected later. The biggest impact is undoubtedly the polyester link. Due to the high overall energy consumption intensity of the polyester finished product, it is more affected by “dual control”. It is obvious that from the distribution point of view, the polyester production capacity of the first-level warning provinces is 29.11 million tons, and the polyester production capacity of the second-level warning provinces is 32.26 million tons. The combined production capacity of the two accounts for 94% of the country.
Since the specific impact of the “dual control” policy on various industries is unpredictable, we can only analyze the possible impact of this dual control in terms of probability and order of strength. , so the above analysis results can be summarized as follows:
Level 1 warning provinces: PTA is expected to be affected by 13 million tons (small-scale devices), MEG is expected to be affected by 1.65 million tons (coal-based ), 29.11 million tons of polyester. From a structural point of view, the most vulnerable to the impact in the industry chain is polyester, followed by MEG, and finally PTA. From a production capacity comparison point of view, the demand side is affected more than the supply side.
First/level two warning provinces: PTA is expected to be affected by 18 million tons (small-scale devices), MEG is expected to be affected by 4 million tons, and polyester is expected to be affected by 61 million tons. The conclusion remains essentially unchanged.
The “red light” of textile chemical fibers will intensify the price increase
Because in September, some provinces still have red light warnings due to dual control of energy consumption, so they will introduce production restriction measures for some high-energy-consuming industries to ensure the completion of dual control indicators throughout the year, and due to tight time and heavy tasks, Relatively stringent measures may appear, which may further intensify the price increase in the entire textile industry chain.
On the other hand, it will become more and more obvious to everyone in the future that energy consumption indicators will become the core bottleneck factor limiting the expansion of new production capacity. Because the textile and chemical fiber industries are industries that consume relatively large amounts of energy. Under this background, if there are such strong constraints on existing enterprises, especially on operating rates, then it is conceivable that it will be more difficult to add new production capacity indicators. We believe that it will seriously affect the subsequent supply of raw materials, and the response speed to demand will prolong the time when supply exceeds demand. We believe that the impact of this wave of dual energy consumption controls on the chemical industry has just begun. For some areas with relatively fast growth, especially those related to new energy demand, it is possible that upstream high-energy-consuming industries will become a continuous supply bottleneck.
In 2017 and 2018, due to the tightening of environmental assessment and safety assessment, the emission of sewage, solid waste, exhaust gas and other factors per unit output value was used as the core indicator. There have been large-scale closures, many of which are concentrated in the fine chemical industry. A number of fine chemical industries, including dyes at that time, experienced a relatively large boom at that time, and this impact continues to this day. Dual control of energy consumption will affect the operating rates of many industries in the short and medium term. At the same time, in the medium and long term, it will restrict the expansion of a number of high energy-consuming industries, restrict current supply, and gradually turn high energy-consuming industries into licensed industries.
At the same time, some people in the industry analyzed that this large-scale production limit will increase prices again? In short, the market is unpredictable, no matter it is true or false, it is better to be careful! </p
