In previous years, the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” were the traditional peak seasons for the terminal textile industry. However, this year, affected by many factors such as early consumption of orders, high sea freight, and the epidemic, the situation of terminals during the traditional peak season has continued to deteriorate. , the polyester market is also out of shape during the peak season.
Polyester has frequent “big sales”, and inventory pressure is still there during the peak season
According to the reporter’s understanding, in the season commonly known as the “Golden Nine”, the market should have been very hot, but the current fact is: since September, polyester filament has been promoted many times, and recently, the polyester factory has further reduced the price by 150 —450 yuan/ton. However, the promotions since September ended up with average weekly production and sales at about 50%, and the trading atmosphere was quite sluggish. The “buying increase” failed, and the promotion also failed. Factory inventory pressure gradually accumulated under the current situation of continued light production and sales.
In this regard, Zheshang Futures analyst Zhu Lihang said that the current situation of dumping goods is a manifestation of the market’s general pessimism about the existing market, at least from the current orders and textile factories. Judging from the start-up data, the terminal situation still has not seen a significant improvement, and the performance may be poor throughout September.
“Judging from the recent promotions, the effect is relatively average. There is no obvious destocking of polyester inventory. It can only maintain the inventory and stop growing.” Zhu Lihang told Futures Daily reporter, since the beginning of the year, polyester has maintained a high load. Even in the traditional off-season, it can maintain a load of more than 90%, and the production and sales are still acceptable. In this case, the terminal stocking is very likely to be advanced to a certain extent. In his opinion, the inventory of raw materials in the downstream is not low, and it has been well prepared during the previous price reduction promotions. Combined with the interference of uncertain factors such as the current epidemic and sea freight, in the absence of a significant improvement in the terminal market, the downstream It is difficult to greatly improve the enthusiasm for stocking.
In the opinion of Zhang Qiang, editor-in-chief of China Silk City Network, polyester factory promotion is a strategy of the factory. “This year, especially after the epidemic, the procurement method of the entire industry chain has changed. Both from the terminal and from the raw material end, we are more cautious about purchasing raw materials, such as purchasing raw materials in one to two weeks.”
“Coupled with the recent increase in polyester production capacity, the reason why the factory adopts a promotional strategy is that the company foresees that inventory may increase in the future, and will always adopt a weekly promotion method. “Zhang Qiang said that this method is guaranteed for the cost of the weaving factory. If it were not for the increase in shipping costs, labor costs, and environmental protection costs, in fact, the cost of the weaving factory this year would mainly come from raw materials. In his opinion, polyester factories will always take promotional measures, but in the absence of particularly hot market conditions, downstream weaving companies will still adopt a buy-and-use strategy.
“For polyester companies, the pressure on companies during this year’s peak season is not small.” Zhu Lihang said that on the one hand, the cost side is still showing an upward trend, forcing polyester prices to continue to rise. But at the same time, the terminal textile industry has been affected by high sea freight, repeated epidemics, and power rationing policies. The overall situation is not optimistic. The contradiction between the two makes it even more difficult for polyester production and sales to improve. On the other hand, despite previous substantial price reductions, the current inventory of polyester is still at a dangerous level. The filament inventory is generally more than 20 days old, and the short fiber inventory has not declined significantly.
Under this situation, polyester factories have begun large-scale joint production reductions, but the effect is relatively limited judging from changes in inventory. The peak season is approaching, and polyester factories are still facing greater pressure.
Downstream weaving orders are gradually picking up
At present, September is already halfway through , for current textile companies, orders are definitely the primary concern. At present, many textile bosses are fighting in the market. Some seem busy, but their profits are lower. This may be the beginning of another round of reshuffle.
In the view of market participants, the poor performance of weaving enterprises in accepting orders has a greater impact on the price of gray fabrics than the price of raw materials. The textile industry is greatly affected by seasonality. In layman’s terms, it depends on the weather.
It is understood that the common pattern of weaving enterprises in previous years is: to accumulate inventory during the off-season, and then sell it intensively during the peak season. There is a big gap in the number of orders in the off-peak and peak seasons. But this year’s situation is that the orders received by weaving companies do not seem to have increased significantly.
Shen Jiayu, a researcher at China Silk City Network, said that according to market research, some clothing companies and traders began to hoard fabrics on a large scale after May in anticipation of repeated orders returning during the early epidemic. , coupled with the continued rise in sea freight, the orders originally placed by foreign trade companies after September have also been advanced to before August. There is a certain amount of fabric inventory from terminal clothing to traders. When the market raw material inventory is saturated, it is conceivable that As you know, in September and October, the main clothing and fabric traders did not dare to stock up on goods, so the placement of orders naturally slowed down.
“The order decline of some weaving companies is still very obvious. Under this situation, weaving companies are naturally not as active in purchasing polyester yarn as before. Enterprises are less enthusiastic about buying polyester yarn. , the price of polyester filament has also begun to decline. However, a previous survey showed that nearly half of the textile people are optimistic about the market during the peak season, and nearly half of the textile people will still plan to stock up on raw materials because of the improvement in orders.” Shen Jiayu said., the textile market seems to have reached a watershed again.
In this regard, Zhang Qiang also admitted that in fact, this year’s “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” years are indeed not as good as in previous years. Affected by the epidemic, the market was hot in the second half of last year, resulting in a slow season for the market this year. The peak season is not prosperous. In a relatively dull situation, the distinction between the low and peak seasons of the market is no longer very obvious.
In his opinion, this year’s “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” years, because orders are placed in advance in May, the entire order, including autumn and winter orders, spring and summer orders, are there, but in the off-season The market has been diluted, so it is hard to feel how much spot shipments the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” can bring.
According to previous practice, orders will be placed in the traditional peak seasons of autumn and winter, including the Christmas season, as well as in the spring and summer of the coming year, and orders will pick up. “From the current point of view, orders are actually slowly improving, including some regular orders, winter ‘Double 11’ orders, and Christmas orders. In fact, they are all in a relatively recovering state.” Zhang Qiang said, but it is also not obvious. , because orders are diluted.
However, as far as the current situation is concerned, we may face some problems after October or even mid-November. “For textile companies, on the one hand, there are orders this year but profits are thin; on the other hand, the proportion of funds is serious, and there is a situation of credit sales, there will be certain risks by the end of the year, maybe in a certain industry chain A shortage of funds, or cancellation of orders due to shipping costs, are all potential problems,” Zhang Qiang said. </p
