Recently, multiple sets of polyester filament installations have been under the background of national dual control. News of production reductions have been frequent. The supply-side reduction has combined with the recovery of raw materials. Major polyester filament manufacturers have begun to increase prices one after another, boosting the market atmosphere!
On September 16, after the early promotion of polyester filament, some polyester factories canceled the discounts and raised the prices again!
The price of polyester yarn from a large factory in Zhejiang was raised by 300 yuan/ton for POY and 200 yuan/ton for FDY;
A large factory in Fujian The price of polyester yarn at the factory is increased by 100-200 yuan/ton;
The price of polyester yarn at a factory in Xiaoshan is increased by 50-100 yuan/ton;
Polyester filaments from a major major factory in Shengze, Jiangsu are likely to rise by 100 yuan/ton;
……
Polyester long Silk has increased for the second time since the end of the last promotion. The price of the 150-300 promotion on that day has risen back in just 3 days.
Currently, domestic weaving orders have improved slightly. Fabrics such as winter warmth and down jackets are still available, but most of them are domestic trade orders, and the number of new orders for brand clothing is limited. , it is reported that most factories still have certain expectations for the domestic National Day and Double Eleven. Therefore, the market outlook does not rule out the expectation that the polyester end will also recover under the expectation of improvement in weaving orders.
Production reduction in August and promotion in September
Reduce inventory to welcome the peak season
Since late August, due to continuous compression of cash flow and high inventory levels in factories, some companies have gradually begun to reduce production and load, and the operating rate has continued to decline. According to our understanding, in 8 In April, four leading domestic polyester factories jointly reduced production by 20% of their production capacity. At the same time, small and medium-sized factories such as Xiaoshan, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo, and Huzhou also reduced production to varying degrees, involving a production capacity of 5.139 million tons. For the downstream in the off-season in August, the overall weaving market has shown a weak trend in the early stage. This is the reason why most weaving companies have not responded to the polyester sales since August.
However, in September, filament factories in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and other regions took the lead in launching promotions. The production and sales rates of mainstream manufacturers were between 200% and 800%, and then the industry carried out various levels of promotions. Promotion, as of the week of September 13, industry inventory has dropped to 18 days, which is at the historical center. Although the polyester end has partially restarted, affected by dual control, companies that have reduced their burdens still exist. As of September 16 The daily polyester operating rate dropped to around 84.67%. With the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” orders being issued one after another, polyester filament is expected to usher in a business cycle under the low inventory environment.
No need to be pessimistic during the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” period
The seasonal rigid demand is expected to gradually decrease
Affected by factors such as insufficient export shipping capacity and rising shipping costs Affected by the epidemic, most of the original export orders in Q3 were placed in Q2 in advance. We believe that the overall seasonal rigid demand effect of the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” has weakened. However, due to the impact of fashion trends, the textile industry has differentiation and timeliness requirements. Advance orders Most of them are standard products such as warp knitted gray fabrics. Orders such as knitted garments are limited in advance. As of the week of September 13, the operating rate of downstream looms was 72%, +2% from the previous week. Downstream demand has picked up moderately, and seasonal demand is expected to be strong. Release gradually.
In addition, due to the impact of insufficient shipping capacity, orders for the “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” small market next year are expected to be placed 2-3 months in advance, and downstream companies have re-entered the stockpile stage. , Q4 is expected to continue the market.
The cost side is strongly supported, and the market atmosphere of polyester filament has been warm recently. Considering that the downstream weaving industry has recently replenished its positions appropriately, and the factory inventory pressure during the Double Festival, the polyester filament yarn may be restricted. As for the floating space of yarn, it is expected that if the raw materials do not fall significantly in the short term, polyester filament yarn is still expected to rise depending on the inventory and specifications. </p
