The PTA market price has gradually strengthened recently, mainly due to the release of news about the maintenance of PTA equipment. The market mentality has improved, and the expectation of accumulation of supply and demand is also expected to be alleviated. International oil prices remain stable and relatively strong. With costs and supply and demand easing, the PTA market trend is relatively stable.
In terms of PTA, the recent fluctuations in PTA equipment have been relatively large. Honggang Petrochemical, Jiaxing Petrochemical, including Hengli Petrochemical, have successively announced maintenance. At present, the devices under maintenance include Sichuan Energy Investment’s 1 million tons, two production lines of Honggang Petrochemical, and Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons. And the companies that were shut down in the early stage have no plans to restart, causing the PTA operating rate to drop to around 74.49%. . In addition, Hengli Petrochemical officially announced the maintenance times of Line 5 and Line 3, which will be on October 8 and late October respectively. The annual maintenance time of Fujian Baihong has not yet been officially announced, and is initially expected to be in October-November. The maintenance of Yisheng Chemical’s 2.25 million tons unit is also not yet clear, but the expectation of maintenance in October cannot be ruled out. In addition, Yisheng Chemical’s 3.75 million tons and Hengli Petrochemical Line 2 have not yet undergone annual maintenance during the year, and the possibility of maintenance in the fourth quarter cannot be ruled out. Overall, the equipment that has not been overhauled during the year involves a total production capacity of 15.5 million tons. The adjustability of the supply side in the market outlook is still strong.
From the polyester side, since late August, factories have been experiencing continuous compression of cash flow and high inventory levels. As a result, some companies have gradually begun to reduce production and load, and the operating rate has continued to increase. Although the technical polyester end has partially restarted, companies that have reduced their burdens still exist. By September 16, the polyester operating rate dropped to around 84.67%. At present, domestic weaving orders have improved slightly, and winter warm fabrics, down jackets and other fabrics are still available, but most of them are domestic trade orders, and the number of new orders for brand clothing is limited. It is reported that most factories are preparing for the National Day and Double Eleven in China. There are still certain expectations. Therefore, the market outlook does not rule out the expectation that the polyester end operating rate will also recover under the expectation of improvement in weaving orders.
Judging from the supply and demand balance forecast, in September, due to the polyester end there are still companies reducing their burden, resulting in overall output Slightly low, PTA supply and demand are still showing accumulated inventory. From October to November, major PTA manufacturers have expectations for maintenance, and polyester load-reducing devices are expected to recover in the future. Therefore, the supply and demand of PTA from October to November tend to be in a destocking state. Based on the actual situation, we still need to pay close attention to the implementation of maintenance of PTA equipment and the actual resumption of polyester production.
Taken together, the contraction of the PTA supply side is still strong, and the situation of accumulated supply and demand is gradually moving towards a tight balance and destocking state. In addition, the international oil price is relatively stable. Without collapse, Logically, the PTA market still has support in the short term. In the medium to long term, PTA is still expected to have new equipment in stock and put into production, and negative supply and demand conditions still exist, so we should operate cautiously.
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