On the near side, the implementation of domestic carbon emission reduction-related policies has intensified, and various provinces have introduced relevant regulations and measures to implement carbon emission reduction targets under the requirements of “dual control”. So what is the impact of “dual control” on the polyester industry chain? At a time when the Golden Nine and Silver Ten fall short of expectations, I think it is necessary for us to sort out the logic and connections among them.
The first is the explanation of “dual control” of energy consumption, which refers to the dual control indicators of total energy consumption (10,000 tons of standard coal) and intensity (energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of output value). ).
As shown in the figure below, under the “dual control” policy requirements for energy consumption in the first half of the year, a considerable number of provinces still did not meet the dual control requirements. Among them are some major polyester provinces: Fujian, Jiangsu, Guangdong, etc.; and those within the early warning line include Zhejiang, etc. So how to determine the impact of “dual control” on the overall polyester industry chain? We believe that to predict the impact, we must first understand the energy consumption of the objects we predict. Secondly, since the implementation of the “dual control” policy is different in each province, we start from the supporting conditions of the polyester industry chain in each province. We can also make relatively more reasonable guesses about the impact of dual control. Therefore, this article will simply analyze the energy consumption of each link in the industry chain and the matching situation of the polyester industry chain in each province.
Energy consumption in each link of the polyester industry chain
The polyester industry chain has different industry attributes from top to bottom. The upstream raw material end is highly automated, while the downstream is closer to labor-intensive industries. However, with the development of technology, the degree of automation from PTA, MEG to the weaving industry has been significantly improved (excluding the terminal clothing industry). However, the energy consumption of each link in the industrial chain is very different. Figure 1 shows the power consumption generated by each link in 2020 per 10,000 yuan of operating income. It can be seen that the average power consumption of the PTA industry is significantly lower than that of all polyester links. The further down the industrial chain extends, the greater the energy intensity. The MEG itself is quite different. It can be seen that the energy consumption intensity of MEG in traditional large-scale refining is relatively low, while the energy consumption intensity of coal-to-MEG is close to that of downstream industries, indicating that coal-to-ethylene glycol is also a high-energy-consuming industry. Therefore, when considering the impact of “dual control” on each province that has not reached the standard in Table 1, combined with the distribution of energy consumption intensity and the regional distribution of the corresponding industrial chain of polyester, we can get a more predictable conclusion.
The distribution of industrial chains in each energy consumption “dual control” early warning province
We have The production capacity distribution of the polyester industry chain in provinces that have not reached the “dual control” standard has been sorted out. The results are shown in the figure below. It can be seen that the domestic polyester industry chain is mainly distributed in Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces. At present, the concentration of the polyester industry chain in the “dual control” first-level and second-level early warning provinces is very high. PTA production capacity accounts for 93% of the national production capacity, MEG production capacity accounts for 70%, and polyester production capacity accounts for 94%. . The downstream spinning and weaving industries are mainly distributed in Fujian, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places. These industries have high energy consumption, and the “dual control” policy of the corresponding provinces is in the first level warning, so the actual terminals will be affected even more.
Results and Discussion
From Judging from the energy consumption intensity of each link in the industrial chain, the energy consumption intensity of the polyester end is relatively high, and its distribution provinces, including Jiangsu, Fujian, Zhejiang, etc. are all within the scope of “dual control” rectification this time, so the polyester end is expected to be affected. Have a greater impact. On the PTA side, first of all, the energy consumption intensity of the PTA device itself is low, and its power consumption is relatively small. The energy consumption intensity of PTA devices with advanced technology (2.5 million tons level) has obvious advantages, while the power consumption of PTA devices with relatively backward technology is Higher (below 2 million tons level), as shown in the figure below. Based on this conclusion, we reorganized the distribution of PTA devices of different sizes in various provinces. We found that in the first-level warning provinces, including Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, Xinjiang, etc., the PTA production capacity of more than 2.5 million tons is 9.5 million tons, accounting for 14.3% of the national production capacity; the remaining smaller PTA production capacity is about 13 million tons , accounting for 19.6% of the national production capacity. In the second-level warning provinces, including Zhejiang, Liaoning, etc., the PTA production capacity of more than 2.5 million tons is 32.8 million tons, accounting for 49.2% of the national production capacity. The remaining smaller-scale PTA devices are about 5.25 million tons, accounting for 8% of the national production capacity. about. Summary: Among the domestic “dual control” early warning provinces, due to the low overall energy consumption intensity of the PTA end and the higher “dual control” early warning level, large installations with a capacity of 2.5 million tons or above are the main ones, accounting for the national production capacity. 63.5%, accounting for 68% of the PTA production capacity in these provinces. The production capacity of devices with relatively high actual energy consumption is about 18 million tons, but the relative energy consumption is still lower than other links in the industrial chain.
Another raw material, MEG, has relatively high energy consumption. Domestic MEG main� is made from oil and coal. According to the energy consumption intensity, the energy consumption intensity of oil-based MEG is relatively low (large refining comprehensive energy consumption), while the energy consumption intensity of coal-based MEG is close to the energy consumption intensity of polyester. Therefore, the impact will be relatively greater. However, based on the specific provinces of “dual control”, the MEG devices distributed in the first-level early warning provinces are mainly oil-based, about 5.4 million tons, and the coal-based MEG devices are about 1.65 million tons; the MEG devices distributed in the second-level early warning provinces are relatively balanced. , oil is restricted to about 4.4 million tons, coal is restricted to about 2.5 million tons, and the remaining about 30% of the production capacity is made of coal, but the provinces where it is distributed are above the “dual control” standard. Therefore, in summary, this dual control affects EG production capacity The upper limit is around 4 million tons.
Due to the high overall energy consumption intensity, the polyester finished product end is more obviously affected by the “dual control”. From the distribution point of view, the polyester production capacity of the first-level warning provinces is 2911 million tons, the polyester production capacity of the second-level warning provinces is 32.26 million tons, and the combined production capacity of the two accounts for 94% of the country.
Since the specific impact of the “dual control” policy on various industries is unpredictable, we can only analyze the possible impact of this dual control in terms of probability and order of strength. , so the above analysis results can be summarized as follows:
Level 1 warning provinces: PTA is expected to be affected by 13 million tons (small-scale devices), MEG is expected to be affected by 1.65 million tons (coal-based ), 29.11 million tons of polyester. From a structural point of view, the most vulnerable to the impact in the industry chain is polyester, followed by MEG, and finally PTA. From a production capacity comparison point of view, the demand side is affected more than the supply side.
First/level two warning provinces: PTA is expected to be affected by 18 million tons (small-scale devices), MEG is expected to be affected by 4 million tons, and polyester is expected to be affected by 61 million tons. The conclusion remains essentially unchanged.
Strategic aspects
From the above analysis, the impact of dual control on downstream is relatively more significant, and the impact of upstream raw materials is expected to be smaller. Small, the supply side is expected to be under greater pressure. The profit of raw material PTA has bottomed out, and all upstream links are basically in a loss-making stage. Therefore, the overall downward space is limited, but under the influence of dual control, it is expected that there will be no upward drive. As for MEG, high coal prices and low port inventories have provided strong price support. Although the demand side is relatively pessimistic, the weakening of supply and demand is limited. Therefore, it is recommended that the EG-TA price difference be adjusted to a low level and then expand on dips. </p
