This week, domestic and foreign cotton prices have fallen; domestic and foreign cotton yarn prices have continued to weaken; polyester staple fiber prices have increased.
1. Domestic cotton prices fluctuate downward
This week, the downstream textile market continues to weaken. The market has digested the expectation of new cotton harvest to a certain extent. Just before the holiday, market sentiment and funds were relatively cautious, and domestic cotton prices fluctuated and fell. From September 13 to 17, 2021, the average settlement price of the main cotton futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 17,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 408 yuan/ton or 2.3% from the previous week; the national cotton price represents the market price of standard grade lint cotton in the mainland. The average price of the B index was 18,098 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous week.
2. International cotton prices fell under pressure
This week, the global market turned to risk aversion, The U.S. stock market and commodities fell, the U.S. dollar index climbed, and the northern hemisphere cotton purchase season began, putting international cotton prices under pressure and falling. From September 13 to 17, 2021, the average settlement price of the main contract of the U.S. Intercontinental Exchange Cotton Futures (ICE) was 92.94 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.77 cents/pound or 0.8% from the previous week; representing the main port of imported cotton in China The average price of the international cotton index (M) at the CIF price is 106.31 cents/pound, down 0.26 cents/pound or 0.2% from the previous week, and the import cost in RMB is 17,148 yuan/ton (calculated based on 1% tariff, including Hong Kong miscellaneous and freight), a decrease of 42 yuan/ton, or 0.2%, from the previous week. The international cotton price is 950 yuan/ton lower than the domestic cotton price, and the internal and external price difference has expanded by 17 yuan/ton compared with last week.
3. The transaction price of reserve cotton fell
This week, with the domestic cotton futures spot price Lower, the transaction price of reserve cotton fell. From September 13 to 17, 2021, the average transaction price of reserve cotton was 16,958 yuan/ton, down 249 yuan/ton from last week; the standard grade (3128) price was 18,372 yuan/ton, down 157 yuan/ton; the highest transaction price The price is 18,110 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 16,280 yuan/ton. Among them, the average transaction price of Xinjiang cotton is 16,981 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 1,191 yuan/ton; the average transaction price of real estate cotton is 16,874 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 859 yuan/ton.
4. Cotton yarn prices at home and abroad continue to fall
This week, because the traditional peak season has not started, Transactions in the textile market decreased, inventories of finished products increased, and the price of pure cotton yarn continued to fall. The purchase of foreign yarn by consumer terminals continues to slow down, the atmosphere of hoarding and selling has dimmed, and the price of foreign yarn has subsequently been reduced. At present, the price of conventional foreign yarn is basically the same as that of domestic yarn. Recently, domestic and export orders in the home textile market have been slow to ship out. The price of conventional pure cotton gray fabrics has continued to fall, and dyeing factories have shown insufficient follow-up orders.
5. Market outlook
Risk aversion in international financial markets is heating up , beware of weakening international cotton prices. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time increased last week, but retail sales unexpectedly increased in August, raising market expectations that the Federal Reserve may reduce stimulus measures ahead of schedule. The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. In the international cotton market, the rate of high-quality cotton in the United States has increased, and the Brazilian cotton harvest has accelerated. In September, the United States Department of Agriculture’s latest forecast increased global cotton production in 2021/22 by 162,000 tons to 26.037 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and consumption The month-on-month increase was 176,000 tons to 27.027 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.75%. Retail sales of terminal clothing and clothing stores in the United States increased slightly by 0.13% month-on-month in August, mainly benefiting from the back-to-school season. Considering the large fluctuations in the data itself, we still maintain the judgment that consumption growth will slow down in the third quarter. As the supply of new cotton in the northern hemisphere increases, there is resistance to rising international cotton prices. The short-term market is worried that next week’s Federal Reserve meeting may reduce the scale of asset purchases early, and the risk aversion sentiment in the financial market has increased, guarding against further weakening of international cotton prices.
New cotton is about to be launched on a large scale, downstream demand has weakened, and domestic cotton prices have become cautious. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, many domestic economic data declined in August. Among them, the industrial added value of the textile industry fell by 2.5% year-on-year, and the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and needles dropped by 6% year-on-year. The foundation for economic recovery still needs to be further consolidated. In terms of the domestic cotton market, the spraying of defoliants on cotton in northern Xinjiang has basically been completed, and spraying is in progress in southern Xinjiang. Some areas have already opened scales sporadically. According to data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, the national new cotton picking progress is 0.5%, down 1.1% year-on-year. percentage points, of which the picking progress in Xinjiang is 0.07%. The price of Zheng cotton has fluctuated recently, and the outflow of warehouse receipts has accelerated. As of September 17, the number of registered warehouse receipts for Zheng cotton was approximately 240,000 tons, a decrease of approximately 40,000 tons from last week. As this round of cotton reserve bidding enters its final stage, it is expected that textile companies will step up bidding for cotton reserves after the Mid-Autumn Festival. Expectations for the peak season of the downstream cotton yarn market have been disappointed. Both yarn and gray fabric inventories have increased. Affected by the weakening downstream demand, the focus of cotton prices has shifted downward. It is expected that new cotton will be launched on a large scale around the National Day, and the market is expected to rush for harvest. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, short-term cotton prices may maintain cautious fluctuations.
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