According to news, the polyester filament party will be held again on the 12th! The meeting stated that the current mainstream inventory of polyester factories is within 10 days, and the cost pressure of polyester raw materials is still high, and there is a certain intention to increase prices!
Spurred by the positive news, the production and sales of the polyester market once again exploded on the 12th, with hot transactions. The production and sales of mainstream manufacturers reached 300 %, 200%, 250%, 180%, 150%…
In the past two years, every polyester filament joint meeting has affected the “nerve” of the entire chemical fiber industry. So, what’s next is another round of price increases?
As for the polyester filament party, we have to mention the pricing power of polyester manufacturers. We know that in the past two years, polyester filament has been in an era of relatively rapid growth in production capacity; at the same time, with the concentration of production capacity, the voice of leading polyester companies has also continued to strengthen.
At present, the main growth areas of domestic polyester filament production capacity are still concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Whether it is the acquisition of bankrupt production capacity or the launch of new production capacity, most of them are operated by leading polyester companies.
According to statistics, the polyester filament production capacity was 33.07 million tons at the end of 2016, and 1.81 million tons of new production capacity was added in 2017. By the end of 2017, the nominal production capacity of polyester filament increased to 34.88 million tons, and the effective production capacity was approximately At 33.88 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. The annual output of polyester filament is also increasing. In 2017, it increased by 2.8 million tons compared with 2016, an increase of 12.0%. As can be seen from the pie chart of polyester filament production capacity concentration in 2017, mainstream polyester manufacturers account for about 37% of the total production capacity.
In 2018, the pace of expansion of leading companies continued. According to statistics, new polyester filament production capacity is expected to be 3.29 million tons in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%; new production capacity is expected to be 4.24 million tons in 2019, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.8%.
The market predicts that the production capacity concentration of leading polyester companies may increase to 47% in 2019. The industrial concentration of leading polyester companies has continued to increase, which has also increased their pricing power in the industry. These leading companies are more unified in their assessment of the upstream and downstream markets, and their relative price positioning is more effective; this is an indisputable fact.
Of course, whether the market price of polyester filament can rise does not depend entirely on The meeting of polyester majors decided that actual demand boost and support is still needed.
From the perspective of price trends, whether it is FDY, POY or DTY, the year-on-year increase is more than 1,000 yuan; however, the price increase during the year was not obvious, and mostly increased slightly.
In addition to its own price, the polyester market is most concerned about its inventory situation. Recently, the inventory of polyester manufacturers is still at a low level during the year, which has effectively contributed to the increase in polyester filament prices.
From the statistical data of China Silk City Network, the current overall polyester market inventory has dropped to 4-15 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory lasts 3-8 days, and FDY inventory lasts 2-7 days days, while DTY inventory is around 13-21 days.
The last thing that must be mentioned is naturally the cost aspect of the polyester filament market; the high fluctuations in the upstream polyester raw material market have a negative impact on The polyester yarn market is both driving force and pressure. Although the international oil price has once again fallen into a long-short game, crude oil has climbed to high levels in recent months, which will inevitably provide positive support for the polyester market.
As for the PTA market, it is expected that it will still be in a destocking situation. Equipment maintenance will reduce supply, and manufacturers will have a relatively strong intention to raise prices in the later period. As for ethylene glycol, although the high inventory situation still exists, the shipping speed in the port area has accelerated recently, the inventory has dropped significantly, and the supply of imported goods will also decrease. The market expects that the ethylene glycol market will still have optimistic expectations.
Whether it is PTA or ethylene glycol, there is currently little risk of a sharp price drop; this also means that for polyester manufacturers, cost pressure is unlikely to dissipate in the short term.
Overall, whether due to its own inventory or cost pressure, under the fuse of the association, the short-term polyester filament market Price increases are inevitable. </p
