“8.7” has also become a “horrifying” day in 2017. On August 4, the main PTA contract 1801 rushed to the 5308 yuan line in the night trading, hitting a recent high. However, when the market opened in the morning on the 7th, the market quickly plunged to collapse, and the price dropped. To the 4964 yuan line, it is only 2 points away from the lower limit. Can the market break expectations in the short term? Can it continue the path of shock and rebound?
From the perspective of PTA’s own supply
Recently, some units in the PTA factory have been restarted one after another. However, some units are still undergoing maintenance in August. Based on the current understanding of the maintenance equipment, it is estimated that the maintenance loss in August will reach around 190,000 tons. Therefore, spot supply is still on the tight side.
From the perspective of downstream demand
After the Spring Festival, domestic polyester production operations continued at a high level, but there was no significant change in the third quarter. Judging from the operation situation in previous years, most of the maintenance of polyester factories during the year took place during the Spring Festival, so it is expected that the polyester production operation rate will not decline significantly in August. . However, due to the decline in the operating rate of terminal weaving plants, high temperature weather and the significant compression of early profits of polyester factories, demand may shrink slightly, but the overall impact on the raw material market may be limited.
From the perspective of processing fees
Since this year, it has become normal for PX-PTA processing fees to remain around 500-600 yuan/ton. Since July, due to the sharp rise in PTA prices and low PX prices, the processing fees have continued to rise to around 1,200 yuan/ton. , hitting a high in recent years, but before the deadline, the processing fee fell back to around 678 yuan/ton, which to a certain extent affected the equipment that was planned to resume production in the early stage. However, the overall processing fee level was higher than the same period in previous years, and some factories were profitable.
Taken together, there are no negative factors in the current supply and demand fundamentals, but there is also a lack of substantial positive impacts. Therefore, the market may recover upward in the medium and long term, but in the short term, it may be dominated by shocks and consolidations.
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