Xia Ting, a textile industry analyst at SunSirs, believes that the current textile export situation has not yet improved, but under the influence of the depreciation of the RMB and the construction of the “Belt and Road Initiative”, the pressure on textile exports will continue to be eased in 2017. At the same time, under the strategic background of my country’s vigorous implementation of supply-side reform, the traditional textile manufacturing industry will gradually reduce overcapacity, and the pace of structural adjustment of the textile industry will accelerate. Therefore, the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed, and there is still room for imagination in the textile market in 2017. For 2017, it is more likely that the “mad cow” will turn into a “slow cow”. It is expected that the textile industry market in 2017 will show a trend of “first falling, then rising and then falling”. In 2017, driven by the accelerated balance between crude oil supply and demand, the cost side has improved expectations for the chemical fiber market. In terms of its own production capacity, it will also focus on the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan Development Guidance for the Chemical Fiber Industry” to eliminate backward production capacity in accordance with the law and accelerate the resolution of excess production capacity. Therefore, in the current environment where the chemical fiber market is improving, the current price increase trend is expected to continue in 2017, and the industry will enter an upward cycle. PTA will also continue to take the lead.
[Shenwan Futures] It is estimated that the spot price of PTA in 2017 will range from 5,000 to 6,000 yuan/ton. Due to the structural impact of the price trends of upstream crude oil, naphtha and PX, the overall trend during the year has been an upward trend. Affected by changes in the supply and demand structure, futures prices are expected to maintain a premium structure to spot prices, with futures prices operating in the range of 5,150-6,200 yuan/ton. Under the influence of periodic negative factors, the distribution of futures prices within this range may be biased towards the middle and lower parts, and the spot price will exist at a low level for more time than at a high level.
[Founder Mid-Term] The spot price of PTA in 2017 is expected to be 4,550-6,000 yuan/ton.
[Guomao Futures] The spot price of PTA in 2017 is expected to be 5,000-7,000 yuan/ton.
[Shanghai Mid-Term] It is expected that PTA output will increase by 1 million to 1.5 million tons in 2017, polyester is expected to grow at 5%, and polyester will affect the demand for PTA by 1.6 million tons. Taken together, PTA is stable and upward.
[Nanhua Futures] In 2017, the center of gravity of the PTA market slowly moved upward, and it was easy to rise but difficult to fall.
[Xinhu Futures] In 2017, the growth rate of output supply caused by the new production capacity and resumption of production capacity of PX/PTA will not be large. Neutral or pessimistic forecasts will not put greater inventory pressure on the PTA/PX link. Therefore, at the supply and demand level The structural improvement will drive PTA to maintain a strong pattern and can be used as a long position in industrial products. Focus on the funds brought about by low social inventory and high warehouse receipts to force the industrial market.
[Cinda Futures] In 2016, the PTA industry chain gradually recovered from the downstream, and it will continue in 2017, and will be more transmitted to the PTA end. In addition, driven by the accelerated balance of supply and demand of crude oil, the price center of gravity may gradually shift upward. , the cost side has improved expectations for PTA. In terms of operation, in 2017, going long along the cost line is the main tone. When profits rebound to high levels, long orders are partially stop-profit, leaving a bottom position for cyclic operations. You need to be cautious when selling short at high levels.
[Huatai Futures] It is expected that the upper limit of PTA will be limited, and the main force will continue to operate in the range of 4,800-6,000 yuan/ton throughout the year.
[Industrial Securities Futures] As a commodity with a relatively low growth rate, PTA is still a value depression, and we do not rule out the possibility that market hot spots will rotate to TA again.
[Guohailiangshi] PTA cost support has been strengthened. Although in the long run, the surplus pattern of the PTA industry will not change, there will be structural shortages in the short and medium term. Go long on the main PTA contract on dips; in terms of monthly structure, pay attention to the opportunity for TA5-9 price difference distortion.
[Minmetals Yi Jing] The shock range will move to a new level.
[Soochow Futures] The cash flow of PTA companies has further improved, and demand has slowly recovered. The fluctuation area for the whole year is expected to be 5,000-6,000 yuan/ton, and the market center will rise to around 5,600 yuan/ton.
[Guosen Futures] The spot price of PTA in 2017 is expected to be 5,000-6,500 yuan/ton.
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