At the end of 2016, the polyester market experienced a “mad cow” market, with the price of ethylene glycol soaring by more than 1,600 yuan/ton; the prices of polyester filament and polyester chips also increased by nearly a thousand yuan. In December, the polyester industry chain was under a collective carnival. , only PTA is secretly sad, and it is difficult for the price to make a substantial breakthrough. After a month of volatile market conditions, in January 2017, PTA’s internal price stopped falling and rebounded, hovering steadily at the key level of 5200-5300.
PX prices have steadily rebounded, providing PTA with long-lasting battery life
Asia’s January ACP was reached at US$850/ton CFR, which was US$55/ton higher than the December ACP; the parties that reached the agreement were: China Shenghong, Sino-US and Exxon Mobil and South Korea’s Ssangyong. It can also be seen from the external price of PX that since the beginning of December, the price of PX has shown a steady upward trend. As of January 18, the average external price of PX was US$848/ton, which was an increase of US$26/ton compared with the December average. The continued rise in PX prices and the achievement of the Asian ACP in January have led to strong PTA cost performance.
In the recent 17 years, domestic and foreign PX device maintenance plans have been released. PX devices will be inspected one after another from mid-to-late March. The second quarter will be the concentrated inspection season for PX. At present, the crude oil production freeze agreement has been advanced in an orderly manner. Although many negative factors have hindered the continued rebound of crude oil prices, the efforts of Saudi Arabia and Russia in freezing production have made crude oil no longer qualified for a deep decline. The market predicts that the international crude oil price in 2017 may It fluctuates between 50 and 55 US dollars, and crude oil is expected to stabilize, which will provide more favorable support in terms of cost and confidence.
The weak balance of supply and demand is broken, and PTA inventory accumulates slightly
With the centralized restart of PTA units of Yadong Petrochemical, Ningbo Petrochemical, Jiaxing Petrochemical, and Yizheng Petrochemical, the overall PTA load has rebounded to around 72.9%. The average load of PTA in December remained at 67%, and its output was around 2.8 million tons. With the increase in PTA load and the maintenance of polyester around the Spring Festival, demand from polyester manufacturers has dropped slightly. PTA inventory has increased slightly in January, with an estimated inventory of 220,000 tons.
At present, PTA’s operating rate of over 70% is already at a relatively high level. However, Far East Petrochemical is expected to restart in the first quarter of this year, which will put huge pressure on the PTA market. If the device restarts smoothly, it will be quite difficult for PTA to continue to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in 2017. . However, judging from the current inventory situation, since PTA was in a tight balance between supply and demand in the early stage, although the inventory accumulated slightly in January, the overall pressure on PTA inventory is not too great.
Polyester manufacturers have low inventory, and maintenance efforts during the Spring Festival are average
Since the fourth quarter of 2016, the polyester market has entered a “bull” market, and inventories have continued to decline. Although polyester production and sales have been light since January and inventory has rebounded slightly, the downstream market, especially texturing plants, has recently concentrated on replenishing goods during the holidays, allowing polyester manufacturers to ship smoothly again and reduce inventory. However, from the current level Judging from polyester inventory levels, the inventory pressure on polyester factories after the Spring Festival will not be too great. Last year’s Spring Festival polyester market maintenance was nearly 1,000 tons. This year, nearly 5 million tons of equipment had to be shut down for maintenance before and after the Spring Festival. In comparison, the start-up of polyester manufacturers during this year’s Spring Festival was not low. In addition, judging from the maintenance schedules of various manufacturers, the maintenance time of polyester equipment during the Spring Festival this year is also around 15-20 days. All equipment will resume production in mid-to-late February. After the holiday, the demand of polyester manufacturers will resume and the PTA market may be affected. Can form a pulling effect.
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