A recent survey report shows that the national cotton planting area increased year-on-year in 2017, which is expected to reverse the five consecutive years of decline in cotton planting area.
In 2016, the efficiency of cotton planting in the cotton-producing areas of the Yellow River Basin was better than that of corn, soybeans and other crops, but lower than that of peppers and garlic. Therefore, the enthusiasm for cotton planting increased slightly, with a year-on-year increase of 1.41%. Meteorological conditions in the cotton-producing areas of the Yangtze River Basin have been poor since sowing. Some areas have been hit by disasters, resulting in lower yields and lower quality. However, the purchase price of cotton is higher than last year, and farmers’ enthusiasm for cotton planting has rebounded. Therefore, the enthusiasm for cotton planting has also increased slightly, with a year-on-year increase of 3.53%. It can be seen from the above results that the increase in cotton planting area nationwide in 2017 will be a high probability event.
In recent years, due to factors such as price, domestic cotton cultivation has suffered a setback. Not only has the area been significantly reduced, but the quality has also declined to varying degrees. The recent cotton planting area survey report released by the China Cotton Association shows that the national cotton planting area increased year-on-year in 2017, which is expected to reverse the five consecutive years of decline in cotton planting area.
In fact, the increase in cotton planting area in 2017 should be reasonable. Due to the implementation of the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy in the past three years, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has been reduced and withdrawn in an orderly manner as planned, and there has been no cliff-like decline. Although Xinjiang’s cotton target price subsidy is a three-year pilot, the country’s determination to protect cotton farmers will not change in the future. After all, cotton, as a strategic material, has very important significance and role for the country.
Xinjiang farmers who quit cotton and switched to other cash crops in the past few years have not received the expected benefits, and some farmers have even suffered serious losses. This year alone, some melons, fruits and other cash crops in Xinjiang have encountered a cold winter in the market. Not only are prices low, but sales are also in trouble. For example, many farmers growing watermelons in Xinjiang suffered heavy losses this year. Many watermelons even rotted in the fields without being harvested because the cost of hiring people to harvest them was already higher than the sales price. There are many examples like this. In the absence of national purchasing, storage and subsidy policies, the income of these farmers cannot be guaranteed. On the contrary, cotton cultivation is at least protected by national policies.
In 2016, the cotton market experienced a rare turnaround. Not only did Zheng cotton prices rise sharply, but the spot market also continued to rise sharply. Higher cotton prices are naturally a major benefit to cotton farmers. A cotton farmer in southern Xinjiang said that the average sales price of hand-picked cotton in 2016 was more than 7.0 yuan/kg, with an average yield of 350 kg per mu, and certain cotton planting benefits were obtained. If subsidies are included, cotton farmers’ income from cotton planting will further increase. In the case of sharp decline in the income of other crops, the benefits of cotton planting will not decrease but increase, which will definitely have a great promotion effect on cotton farmers to increase planting area next year.
After New Year’s Day, there are many reports that some downstream gray fabric factories intend to stop work early and take holidays because the market continues to be sluggish. According to our understanding, in the recent gray fabric market, whether it is an inquiry or a confirmed order, the quantity of orders is mostly between 10,000 and 20,000 meters. The downstream market The weakening demand will undoubtedly put greater pressure on the yarn sales of various textile companies before the Spring Festival.
It is understood that the overall yarn sales in the Hebei, Shandong and Henan regions are dominated by conventional mainland goods. Sales of mid- and low-end yarns have maintained the overall level in December. Prices have flexibility to adjust based on volume. Although prices in the high-end market have resisted falling, current sales volume is relatively It fell back in the early stage. According to feedback, due to fluctuations in raw material prices, the current price in the yarn market is very chaotic.
At the same time, the price difference is mostly determined by each manufacturer based on its own actual situation. The price of yarn in the Hebei market is generally higher than that in the Shandong market. For example, for T65/C3545S yarn, a factory in Hebei quoted a price of 18,300 yuan/ton ex-factory, while a factory in Shandong quoted a price of 17,800 yuan. Yuan/ton, there may be reasons such as different quality, business positioning, etc., resulting in a price difference of 500 Yuan per ton of yarn.
However, each has its own customer group. Although the prices are different, downstream buyers generally do not change suppliers easily as long as the price is within their own affordability in order to ensure stable quality. Pure cotton yarn has always been in weak sales. The uncertainty of raw materials has led textile companies to control the inventory quantity and would rather stop than increase the inventory. At this stage, most companies are more or less in a vicious cycle.
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