Since October, the polyester filament market has seen an obvious upward trend. Some product specifications have increased by more than 30% within two months, which has made downstream textile companies unable to bear it. Although the price of polyester filament has stabilized since the beginning of this week, manufacturers have not made concessions in their quotations despite the decline in production and sales.
There is still one month left before the Lunar New Year. What everyone is more concerned about is whether the polyester and polyester market will continue to rise before the year.
In fact, according to “conventional practice”, everyone knows without analysis that the market will inevitably rise after all! But as a serious editor, I still want everyone to read the article and feel, “Haha, it makes so much sense, I’m speechless.”
Therefore, to analyze the trend of this issue a year ago, we must first make it clear that this round of booming rising prices of polyester filament is the result of the resonance of these two important factors, the pull of upstream costs and the existence of terminal demand. In turn, we all clearly realize that in these two aspects, it is difficult for either side to achieve anything alone.
So, the following “serious” analysis begins…
1. Crude oil: OPEC agreed to reduce daily production by about 1.2 million barrels on November 30, and non-OPEC oil-producing countries agreed to reduce production by 558,000 barrels per day on December 10. The production freeze will start in January next year. Starting on the 1st.
It is said that the probability of compliance with the previous production reduction agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC is 84%! (After too much talk, this probability is enough to move people…) It is expected that the oil market will be in short supply in the first half of 2017, and Brent crude oil will peak at US$59 per barrel. Do you think the price of polyester filament will increase?
2. PTA: The recent production and sales of polyester manufacturers have been very hot, and they have also made great efforts to restock PTA. It is said that the inventory of PTA manufacturers is now very low, and the mainstream only has 4-6 days. Business even in 0-3 days, no inventory, no pressure!
In addition, in January, the PTA’s new and old equipment will not be repaired for the time being. You said that the cost support surface is still there, will polyester filament rise?
3. Terminal demand: The editor especially remembers that in December last year, there were rumors in the market that downstream weaving would celebrate the New Year early, and most companies would start on New Year’s Day. However, sales this year have been unexpectedly good, and the market is not weak in the off-season, which has continued the enthusiasm of enterprises for production and rigid demand continues to exist.
Some dyeing factories said they would not take holidays until January 15th, while many weaving companies also said they would postpone the holidays to mid-to-late January. The downstream holiday is postponed. Do you think polyester filament will rise?
4. Inventory aspects of polyester manufacturers: Although the production and sales of polyester filament have dropped slightly since the beginning of this week, according to statistics, even if only 70% of the output is produced and sold every day from now on, it will still need to be close to 20 It takes about days to reach the usual normal inventory.
Therefore, in the short term, the inventories of various chemical fiber manufacturers will still be at low levels, and some have even been in a short-selling state. Supply is in short supply. Do you think the price of polyester filament will increase?
5. Equipment maintenance: In the past, whether it was a text message notification from the manufacturer’s salesperson or a meeting to discuss, the polyester factory had already released rumors of maintenance. Coupled with the demand for downstream replenishment after the year, the chemical fiber factory will inevitably There will be some “hype” behavior for maintenance.
Regardless of whether it is finally implemented or not, whether the overhaul is intensive or not, as soon as the news comes out, do you think polyester filament will rise or not?
“Serious” analysis completed
After all, the editor actually posted it today
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