[168TEX News] With the imperfect ending of the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”, the polyester market continues to be shrouded in low pressure; it is obviously not easy for the polyester “general” polyester filament market to improve, and most product market prices focus on It is still dominated by a weak consolidation pattern. Under this influence, it is difficult to avoid falling into the same trap, and polyester filament manufacturers are still stuck in cash flow losses and it is difficult to escape.
From a fundamental point of view, international oil prices plunged sharply in November. The decline lasted for nearly half a month, once falling below the level of US$40 per barrel during the session; it was not until the end of the year that it rebounded slightly due to force. Under this influence, the MEG market has shown signs of weakening in recent months. Its price once hit a new low, with a decline of nearly 500 yuan/ton during the month. Relatively speaking, the market for polyester raw material PTA has shown signs of weakness in recent months. In a stalemate, its price center of gravity mostly fluctuates around 4,700 yuan/ton. Not only is the upstream raw material market running weakly, but the purchasing atmosphere of downstream weaving manufacturers is still dull, and the lack of batch demand for raw materials has made the bearish sentiment on polyester filament even more intense.
Let’s take a closer look at the cash flow status of various products in the polyester filament market in the recent period; in terms of cost, calculated based on the market price on November 23, the mainstream price in the PTA internal market is concentrated at around 4,720 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in the MEG internal market is The price is around 4,290 yuan/ton.
For direct spinning FDY (polyester filament), FDY=0.86×PTA+0.34×MEG+1,300 yuan/ton; from this calculation, the FDY production cost is around 6,818 yuan/ton, which is lower than the same period last month. As of the end of the month, the average quotation of FDY 150D from mainstream manufacturers in the domestic market was around 6,680 yuan/ton, which was a significant drop of nearly 300 yuan/ton compared to the price at the end of last month. It is not difficult to see from this that this month FDY manufacturers still continued the loss situation of last month. The loss margin is acceptable and there is not much room.
Direct spinning POY (pre-oriented yarn), POY=0.86×PTA+0.34×MEG+900 yuan/ton, it is calculated that the POY production cost is around 6418 yuan/ton, which is down from the previous month; and the domestic market at the end of the month The average quotation of POY 150D from mainstream manufacturers is around 6,400 yuan/ton, which is slightly lower than last month’s price, down by about 150 yuan/ton. Although production costs have gradually declined, its market quotation focus has also declined. In November, POY products were still in a loss-making state, and the extent of their losses has relatively eased, with a slight loss.
Finally, let’s look at DTY (textured yarn), DTY = POY + 1,300 yuan/ton; from this, it is calculated that the production cost of DTY is approximately 7,718 yuan/ton. At present, the average quotation of DTY 150D by mainstream manufacturers in the domestic market has dropped slightly to around 7,975 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of nearly 175 yuan/ton compared with the price last month. From this we can calculate that DTY manufacturers still made a certain amount of profits in November, but their profit margins were not large.
Taken together, the supply and demand of the upstream polyester raw material PTA market is still in a tight balance, and the market is mostly maintaining a stable pattern. This also means that the cost of upstream raw materials has certain support for the polyester market; however, the recent situation in the downstream weaving market is still dull. , manufacturers are not very enthusiastic about purchasing raw materials and lack support from production and sales. It is expected that the market outlook for polyester filament yarns will continue to fluctuate and consolidate.
