[168TEX News] In early October, under the leadership of the sharp rise in international oil prices, the market prices of both raw material PX and polyester raw materials PTA and MEG have increased to a certain extent; however, as oil prices fell again, the raw material PX market The price center of gravity has once again been on a downward trend. Under cost pressure, MEG’s market has also collapsed and continued to decline. Near the end of the month, its price center of gravity fell to below 5,000 yuan. Relatively speaking, the market trend of raw material PTA is slightly firm, and the price center of gravity shows a range fluctuation pattern, mostly hovering around 4600-4700 yuan/ton. Under the constraints of the stable and weakening market of the upstream raw material market, the recent polyester filament market conditions are not satisfactory, and the price focus of each product is facing certain adjustment fluctuations; and this means for polyester filament manufacturers what? What is the cash flow situation of polyester manufacturers?
Specifically understand the cash flow situation of various products in the polyester filament market in the recent stage; first of all, in terms of cost, we calculated based on the market price on October 23. Among them, the mainstream price in the PTA internal market is concentrated at around 4,680 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in the MEG internal market is The price is around 5,090 yuan/ton.
For direct spinning FDY (polyester filament), FDY=0.86×PTA+0.34×MEG+1,300 yuan/ton; from this calculation, the FDY production cost is around 7,056 yuan/ton, which is slightly higher than the same period last month. As of the end of the month, the average quotation of FDY 150D from mainstream manufacturers in the domestic market was around 6,980 yuan/ton, which was a slight decrease of nearly 100 yuan compared to the price at the end of last month. From this we can calculate that this month FDY manufacturers have fallen from the edge of slight profit to a loss-making state. Fortunately, the loss is not large.
Direct spinning POY (pre-oriented yarn), POY = 0.86 × PTA + 0.34 × MEG + 900 yuan/ton, it is calculated that the POY production cost is around 6,656 yuan/ton; at the end of the month, the average quotation of POY 150D by mainstream manufacturers in the domestic market is approximately At around 6,550 yuan/ton, the price has increased slightly compared with last month, rising by about 200 yuan/ton. Although the price focus of POY products has shifted slightly in October, it is still difficult to change its loss situation. At present, POY manufacturers still have a loss of nearly 100 yuan.
Finally, let’s look at DTY (textured yarn), DTY = POY + 1,300 yuan/ton; from this, it is calculated that the production cost of DTY is approximately 7,956 yuan/ton. At present, the average quotation of DTY 150D from mainstream manufacturers in the domestic market has dropped slightly to around 8,150 yuan/ton, which is a slight decrease of nearly 100 yuan/ton compared with the price last month. Production costs are increasing, but production prices have fallen. It is not difficult to see that the profitability of DTY manufacturers once again showed a downward trend in October. Although they still maintain profitability, their profit margins have narrowed significantly.
As for the market outlook, with the imperfect ending of the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”, it will be even more difficult for the textile market to improve in the later period. Recently, the market situation of polyester raw material PTA has shown a stalemate. In addition, the price center of MEG market has shown signs of weakening. At present, the cost of upstream raw materials in the polyester market is still flat, while the procurement of downstream weaving manufacturers has also gradually slowed down, and there is a lack of bulk supply of raw materials. Sexual demand; this is more bearish for polyester filament. <br /
