Analysis of the main factors affecting the trend of the RMB exchange rate
1. First of all, we must understand the exchange rate system currently implemented in China. The exchange rate system currently implemented in China is: based on market supply and demand, adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies, and managed floating exchange rate system.
–Market supply and demand conditions
–Adjustment with reference to a basket of currencies: “reference” rather than pegged, it can be 100% reference, that is, pegged, or it can be 0 reference, that is, independent decision; the U.S. dollar index can be used as a A reference to a basket of currencies.
–Management: Qiao Lai Management?
Since the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is the basic exchange rate, the exchange rates of RMB against other foreign currencies are calculated through the exchange rates of other currencies and the US dollar (although the official claim is that the RMB against the Japanese yen Direct exchange has been achieved), so China’s exchange rate system also mainly reflects the arrangement of the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar
The current Chinese foreign exchange market: especially the inter-bank foreign exchange market, still lacks depth and breadth, and is an extremely immature foreign exchange market. The market and market expectations tend to be one-sided. If you want to be bullish, everyone will be bullish, and if you want to be bearish, everyone will be bearish. Therefore, everyone will buy if you want to buy, and sell if you want to sell.
2. Opening central parity and intraday trading price
Opening central parity:
According to the introduction of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center:
–The formation method of the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar is: the trading center at Before the opening of the interbank foreign exchange market every day, inquire the foreign exchange market makers for prices, and use all market makers’ quotes as the calculation sample for the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar. After removing the highest and lowest quotes, the remaining market makers’ quotes are weighted average. , the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar is obtained on the day, and the weight is comprehensively determined by the trading center based on the quotation party’s trading volume and quotation status in the inter-bank foreign exchange market.
–The central parity rate of the RMB against the euro, pound, Hong Kong dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar is determined by the trading center based on the day’s central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar and the international foreign exchange market euro, pound, Hong Kong dollar and Australian dollar at 9 a.m. Confirmed by calculating the Canadian dollar to US dollar exchange rate.
–The central parity rate of the RMB against the Japanese yen, Malaysian ringgit, and Russian ruble is formed as follows: the trading center consults the market maker of the corresponding currency in the interbank foreign exchange market before the daily opening of the interbank foreign exchange market. Price, average the quotes from market makers, and get the central parity rate of the RMB against the Japanese yen, the Malaysian ringgit, and the Russian ruble on that day.
Among them, the most important is the opening central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar. Under normal circumstances, the above method is used to determine the opening mid-price, but under special circumstances…
Intraday trading price: The intraday trading price of RMB against the US dollar fluctuates up and down by 1% relative to the opening mid-price.
——The difference between this price limit and the price limit of the stock market.
3. Main factors affecting the RMB exchange rate (against the US dollar)
China’s trade balance – the most basic influencing factors
In 2012, China’s trade surplus in goods was US$231.1 billion, which was 231.1 billion U.S. dollars, higher than the previous year An increase of nearly 50%, a new high since 2009. In the first five months of this year, the trade surplus was US$80.87 billion. In the same period last year, the surplus was US$37.91 billion.
Banks’ foreign exchange settlement and sales on behalf of customers: In January this year, the foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus was US$92.6 billion, a record high. From January to April 2013, banks’ accumulated foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus on behalf of customers was US$203.6 billion; during the same period, banks’ cumulative net forward foreign exchange settlements on behalf of customers was US$25.5 billion.
Foreign exchange accounts held by financial institutions: In January this year, there was an increase of 683.659 billion yuan, a record high; in the first four months, the cumulative new foreign exchange accounts held were 1,509.7 billion yuan, and the total foreign exchange accounts held by historical banks were 1,227.7 billion yuan. For the whole of last year, they were 494.7 billion yuan and D428.1 billion respectively.
China’s International Balance of Payments – Online Items
In 2012, the current account surplus and the capital account deficit coexisted, and an online balance was basically achieved, reversing the previous sustained double surplus. However, this balance is still relatively fragile and cannot be Is it true that it has fundamentally returned to a dual-surplus pattern from the first quarter of this year, with a current account surplus of US$55.2 billion and a capital account surplus of US$101.8 billion.
China’s political factors
The new Chinese government and Governor Shi’s attitude towards the RMB exchange rate: pay more attention to the transformation of economic growth mode, and pay more attention to the quality and efficiency of economic growth.
U.S. Economic Situation
On February 12, Obama delivered his second State of the Union address, stimulating the economy as his top priority. In early 2012, Obama proposed “re-industrialization” and “export doubling plan.” The State of the Union address proposed: and focused on economic growth, it launched a series of measures such as creating new manufacturing innovation institutions and energy security funds, investing in infrastructure construction, strengthening education, raising the minimum wage, and starting negotiations on a free trade agreement with the EU.
Affected by increased imports and declining exports, the U.S. trade deficit increased to US$44.4 billion in January this year, and the revised deficit in December last year was US$38.1 billion; of which, the trade deficit with China in January was US$27. US$800 million, up from the revised US$24.5 billion in the previous month.
International Political Factors
Recently, the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a well-known American think tank, released a research report stating that foreign currency manipulation has reduced 1 million to 5 million jobs in the United States over the past few years. , the biggest “sinner” is China. Almost at the same time, Edward Lazier, the former chairman of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers and a professor at Stanford University, said on the 8th that it is a common practice for some Americans to find scapegoats for domestic economic policy difficulties. Americans blame huge trade deficit and slow job growth��The idea that China is manipulating its currency to gain an export advantage has proven untenable.
From the United States, Obama’s main task is to implement the export doubling plan and reindustrialization to promote employment and economic growth.
Sudden factors
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