The market is more severe than the numbers. Thousands of export textile companies continue to reshuffle

From January to April this year, my country’s cumulative exports of textiles and clothing dropped by 2.7% year-on-year. This situation has aroused strong concern among industry insiders. What is the reason for the year-on-year decline in exports? How should we interpret the current severe foreign trade situation? The reporter conducted follow-up interviews.
The growth of emerging markets is difficult to prevent the decline of main markets
According to the analysis of relevant personnel from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles, the United States, Japan, and the European Union are the three main markets for my country’s textile and apparel exports, and they are also the most important driving force for exports. As the European Union and Japan continue to be affected by the economic downturn, the market is sluggish, and consumers lack the willingness to consume, so importers no longer have a positive and strong willingness to purchase. The U.S. market has recovered to a certain extent, and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the RMB is basically stable, making exports in the U.S. market relatively stable. As a result, the three main markets are driven by only the U.S. market. To give a vivid example, it is like “three legs have been broken.”
In terms of emerging markets, although my country has continuously increased its efforts to explore emerging markets in recent years and achieved some results, the increase in exports to emerging markets represented by ASEAN, Brazil, and Russia is not enough to make up for the decline in traditional markets. Come vacuum. As Russia is subject to economic sanctions, the market is also unsatisfactory. The exports of ASEAN countries represented by Vietnam and Cambodia have grown rapidly, absorbing a large number of bulk product orders that have been lost from China due to cost and price constraints. Therefore, overall, my country’s export market is undergoing structural changes.
my country’s unilateral export share has reached a high level
Data released by the General Administration of Customs of China show that in April this year, my country’s textile and clothing exports were US$19.88 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%; in the first four months, my country’s textile and clothing exports totaled US$79.64 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, of which textile exports fell by 0.5%. %, and clothing exports fell by 4.2%. After years of sustained high-speed growth in exports, people have become accustomed to seeing double-digit growth rates.
Industry analysts pointed out that in the past 10 years, my country’s textile exports have basically been growing at a double-digit rate, and China’s unilateral share in the international market has also been rising. According to WTO statistics, China’s share of the total international textile and apparel trade has increased from a dozen percent 10 years ago to a high of 37%. With the rise of exports from ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia, my country’s share will grow at a low rate, and the space for continued substantial growth will be very limited.
Has the industry’s export turning point arrived?
In the first three months of this year, my country’s textile and apparel exports maintained a slight growth after experiencing large ups and downs. In the first three months, my country’s textile and apparel exports totaled US$59.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, which was 14.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the first two months of this year. Some analysts believe that export fluctuations in the first quarter were affected by holiday factors. Although it is impossible to accurately judge the general trend, it has revealed that industry exports are facing greater pressure; and the continued decline in April further confirmed this judgment.
Zheng Shaosan, vice president of Guangdong Textile Industry and Trade Group Co., Ltd. and Guangdong Textile Import and Export Group Co., Ltd., believes that the situation in the entire textile and apparel export market is more severe than the figures indicate. From the perspective of the entire international environment, except for the US market, which is currently relatively prosperous, The situation in other regions is also very serious. In addition to raw material price factors, exchange rate factors are the main reason. In particular, the appreciation of the RMB against the euro has made it more difficult for my country to export to Europe.
Although there is currently great pressure on export enterprises, it is still too early to judge the arrival of an inflection point in my country’s textile and apparel export trade. Analysts pointed out that there are currently about 80,000 domestic textile and garment export companies, and the total number of export companies is relatively large. Continued fierce international competition will enable those large companies with strong risk resistance and comprehensive strength to win. At the Canton Fair just held in May, the order growth of large and advantageous companies such as SUMEC and Cathay Pacific even maintained a growth rate of 17% to 20%. As the market reshuffle continues, orders will continue to be concentrated towards large and advantageous companies, and the trend of market polarization will also continue. Whether it is an inflection point for exports to turn from rising to falling depends on the situation in May to June, because May to June is the delivery period for summer products.
Some analysts also pointed out that the rise and fall of the export amount is related to the fluctuation in the price of textile raw materials. The decline in the price of raw materials represented by cotton is one of the factors contributing to the decline in the total export volume. In addition, detailed analysis must be done based on the changes in the quantity of export products in different categories to determine whether the export turning point has really arrived.