On January 21, at a regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Shen Danyang answered reporters’ questions on the foreign trade situation in 2015.
We judge that the domestic and international situations facing foreign trade development this year are still severe and complex, and foreign trade companies still face many difficulties, mainly in the following aspects:
First, from the perspective of international demand, the world economy is still in the adjustment period after the international financial crisis, and the overall weak recovery has not changed significantly. The growth of external demand still faces many uncertain factors. The IMF’s latest forecast for global economic growth in 2015 is 3.8%. However, the IMF has always been an optimist, and the predicted growth rate is often higher than the actual growth rate. Therefore, we feel that the entire world economic growth in 2015 may not be that optimistic.
Second, from a domestic perspective, the domestic economy has now entered a new normal, and downward pressure still exists. If domestic investment and economic growth slow down, it will restrain the increase in imports.
Third, from the perspective of corporate competitiveness, the low-cost advantage is weakening, factor prices continue to rise, traditional comparative advantages are weakening, and the operating pressure of foreign trade companies is increasing.
Fourth, from the perspective of trade environment, China has been the country that has encountered the most trade frictions for 19 consecutive years. From January to September 2014, the number of trade remedy investigations launched by foreign countries against my country and the amount of cases involved increased by 17% and 159% respectively year-on-year. This aspect is also a kind of pressure.
Fifth, from a geopolitical perspective, the situation in some regions has become more turbulent, further increasing international trade risks and uncertainties.
Although we are facing a severe, complex or difficult situation, we are still confident that we can do a good job in foreign trade this year because we have many favorable factors. The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to foreign trade work, and the policies to expand exports and increase imports are now more complete. We are working hard to consolidate the traditional advantages of foreign trade and accelerate the cultivation of new competitive advantages in foreign trade with technology, brand, quality, and service as the core. “One Belt, One Road” The strategic concept of China is accelerating, a high-level free trade zone network is being built, emerging trade methods such as cross-border e-commerce and market procurement are booming, and the overall foreign trade is showing a stable and good trend. These are all favorable factors. As long as we follow the trend, pay close attention to policy implementation, and optimize the development environment, we believe that foreign trade will still maintain moderate and steady growth in 2015.
