Stimulated by the European Central Bank’s unexpectedly loose monetary policy, the spot price of RMB against the U.S. dollar closed sharply down by nearly 200 points on Friday, January 23, which was the largest single-day drop in a month and a half, and set a new closing low in the past seven months. , the central parity price also fell to a one-and-a-half-month low, closing at 6.2287 that day.
“This year’s foreign trade should be better than last year.” The reporter interviewed some Shenzhen electronics, home appliances, clothing, toys, watches and other companies on the 23rd and found that these companies targeting the U.S. market generally believe that the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar “at least will not rise again.” ”, so they are generally optimistic about foreign trade exports this year.
But it’s not just the U.S. dollar that’s changing exchange rates. The U.S. dollar is lower, but the Japanese yen is rising. A company exporting to Japan complained endlessly because the Japanese yen depreciated by more than 11% against the RMB last year, and the company suffered a huge loss in exchange rate. The yuan’s depreciation against the dollar has not given a stronger boost to exports, as emerging market currencies collectively depreciated last year. In terms of U.S. dollar exchange rates, in early December last year compared with August, the Korean won fell by about 8.5%, the South African rand fell by about 7%, the Indonesian rupiah fell by 6.5%, the Malaysian ringgit fell by 4%, and the Brazilian real fell by three. It fell by 17% during the month. The Russian ruble fell by about 40% against the U.S. dollar last year. After the euro experienced a depreciation of more than 10% last year, it began to stimulate more-than-expected loose monetary policy this year.
Exchange rates rise and fall, and currencies perform differently. Shenzhen’s foreign trade companies have ushered in a new normal of exchange rate fluctuations. How to deal with this new normal? The opinions of relevant professionals range from long-term strategies to short-term responses. The long-term strategy is to continuously introduce new products and improve product competitiveness. The short-term response is to use US dollars for foreign exchange settlement as much as possible under the expectation of RMB depreciation against the US dollar.
Shenzhen’s exports are “bullish” this year
“At least it is expected that the RMB will not appreciate again, which is a good thing for export companies.” Zu Youdong, Secretary to the Board of Directors of Shenzhen Libang Precision Instrument Co., Ltd., said that the company does not expect the RMB to depreciate too fast and will not As the media or some experts have analyzed, the country will make certain efforts to stabilize the exchange rate policy.
Reporters interviewed yesterday and found that although the European Central Bank launched a more-than-expected loose monetary policy that caused the RMB to plummet, the heads of foreign trade companies were very calm and believed that the Chinese government and central bank would also introduce countermeasures and would not let the RMB depreciate too fast. From the perspective of exchange rate changes, this year’s foreign trade business should be better than last year. Fang Zhen, general manager of Foreign Currency Exchange Network, pointed out that in fact, the RMB depreciated slightly by 2.5% last year, and the export data released in December last year rebounded strongly, confirming that appropriate depreciation of the RMB will help export companies recover. He predicts that in the external environment where global currencies continue to decline against the US dollar this year, the RMB will not be able to buck the trend and rise again.
Yidatong is an e-commerce platform focusing on the field of foreign trade. Last year, the import and export volume reached more than 5 billion US dollars through the Yidatong platform. “Once the expectation of RMB depreciation is established, it will be a good thing for foreign trade exports.” Xiao Feng, Vice President of Yidatong, said that the rapid growth of Yidatong’s import and export volume is largely due to the company’s comprehensive foreign trade services. model, also benefited from factors such as the depreciation of the RMB. The increase in December last year was relatively large, but the import and export volume in January this year will be relatively reduced. These factors are related to seasonality, and exchange rate changes will also have a certain impact on import and export. Xiao Feng said frankly that from the data analysis of the Yidatong platform, the demand for foreign necessities is still very strong. The general trade exports of domestic companies on the platform have increased, while the processing trade exports have declined. This shows that a large number of foreign trade export companies are conducting independent marketing. International competitiveness has improved.
The impact of exchange rate fluctuations is limited
After the RMB is expected to depreciate against the US dollar, will the prices of export products drop significantly to improve product competitiveness? The companies interviewed generally believe that export order prices are unlikely to drop significantly, and the next step will be to make a fuss about innovative products to improve competitiveness.
During the interview, the person in charge of a garment foreign trade company in Shenzhen told reporters frankly: “Compared with the increase in workers’ wages, changes in exchange rates have no effect on costs.” The reporter’s investigation found that in recent years, Shenzhen’s various The labor costs of foreign trade companies generally show an upward trend. The reporter inquired about the relevant information of Libang Instruments on the GEM and found that the revenue in the first three quarters of last year was 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.98%; the net profit was 11 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63.63%, which was lower than expected. It is not difficult to explore the main reasons for the decline in net profit and find that the amount of R&D expenditure in the first three quarters of last year was 103.2 million yuan, an increase of 21.36 million yuan year-on-year, accounting for 27.89% of operating income. Zu Youdong, Secretary to the Board of Directors of Libang Instruments, said frankly that compared with the benefits from the depreciation of the RMB, they feel that labor costs have a greater impact on the company’s profits.
“Under the expectation of RMB depreciation, the price of enterprises’ foreign trade export orders is unlikely to decrease.” Xiao Feng, vice president of Yidatong, pointed out that after the current increase in domestic labor costs, if the selling price of export products cannot be increased, enterprises will have no profits. There may be orders that are not accepted. Xue Xiaowei, director of Guanlan Baode Toys Factory, said that the RMB depreciation of 1 or 2 points will have limited impact on the toy industry. Especially compared with the increase in labor costs, the labor costs of the toy industry have a huge impact on the industry and are significantly higher.The impact of RMB depreciation is even much higher than the impact of raw materials.
Yen settlement companies complain
“For us, the RMB is appreciating instead!” While most foreign trade companies rejoice that the RMB will no longer appreciate, which will benefit exports, foreign trade companies that use the Japanese yen as their settlement currency have not enjoyed the benefits of the depreciation of the RMB.
“The depreciation of the Japanese yen has caused our company a huge exchange rate loss!” The person in charge of an electrical appliance company in Shenzhen said that the company does not feel the depreciation of the RMB. For the company’s foreign trade export business, the RMB is appreciating. He said that the Japanese yen depreciated by more than 11% against the RMB last year, which seriously affected the company’s exports to Japan and also had a great impact on the profits of export products. The reporter learned from the interview that the company has been doing Japanese orders. Due to the expectation of RMB appreciation, it has negotiated with customers to settle in Japanese yen since the beginning of this century. Therefore, it has never suffered from the pressure of RMB appreciation. However, starting in 2012, it was affected by the depreciation of the Japanese currency. , export profits are not ideal. It is reported that the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen has dropped from about 80 in mid-2012 to nearly 117.7 today. The company has suffered heavy losses in the exchange rate and is not profitable in export sales.
Innovation is the key to victory
The depreciation of the RMB cannot save companies from increasing labor costs. What should foreign trade companies do? Is it really the only way to take orders but not to accept them? “Innovation”, “Developing new products”, “Developing new markets”. The answer is different for every business. Libang Instruments continues to expand its export market by launching new products. Zu Youdong introduced that last year, demand in the international market was sluggish and the market’s natural growth was weak. The company’s slight growth in the international market last year was due to the launch of the company’s new products. It is reported that the mid-to-low-end color ultrasound developed by Libang Instrument’s domestic R&D team earned more than 30 million yuan in 2013 and is expected to earn more than 40 million yuan in 2014. In October last year, the new generation of high-performance portable color ultrasound Acclarix AX8 released by Libon Instruments is currently undergoing product registration applications in Europe, the United States and China, and is expected to be launched in the three places this year.
“It is impossible to reduce the price of products, we can only constantly introduce new ones.” Chen Mang, the head of Chaowei Industrial, said frankly in an interview with reporters that affected by the depreciation of the RMB, companies are generally optimistic about the export market this year, but if labor costs are not reduced, if they want to have Profits can only come from developing new products. “The company has been constantly developing and launching new products. New products have strong bargaining power.”
