Analysis of the reasons why my country’s foreign trade import and export growth rate has not reached the expected target

In 2014, the growth rate of my country’s foreign trade import and export was only 2.3%, failing to reach the expected target of 7.5% at the beginning of the year. The reasons for this are still relatively complicated. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year proposed that my country’s economic development has entered a new normal, and some new characteristics have emerged in my country’s opening up and my country’s foreign trade. At present, my country’s foreign trade is in a period of shifting growth rates and a period of structural transformation, and has entered a medium-to-high-speed growth range from a high-speed growth stage. In 2014, the pace of world economic recovery was slow, international market demand was sluggish, and domestic economic downward pressure was great. Under this circumstance, my country’s foreign trade imports and exports still increased by 2.3% compared with 2013. Affected by exchange rate fluctuations, if the growth is calculated in US dollars, it is 3.4%. Although there is a certain gap between this growth rate and the expected target at the beginning of the year, But it is indeed not easy to achieve such results.
According to the import and export statistics of Europe, the United States, and Japan, their statistics are denominated in US dollars. In the first 10 months of 2014, the import and export growth of the United States was 3.3%, that of Japan decreased by 1.4%, and that of the European Union in the first nine months. Import and export growth was only 1.1%. From this perspective, my country’s current foreign trade import and export performance is still relatively good among the world’s major economies. We believe that the slowdown in my country’s foreign trade growth last year was not only affected by the high base in some months of 2013, but also by the following three factors.
First, the world economy is recovering slowly and cannot support the rapid growth of my country’s foreign trade. In 2014, the global economy showed no signs of rapid recovery. The economic growth of developed economies was obviously divided. The recovery of the US economy gradually consolidated, while the recovery of Europe was weak. Japan has experienced negative growth for two consecutive quarters. The economic growth of major emerging market countries is also slowing down further. The economic performance of my country’s major trading partners is often unsatisfactory, which cannot support the continued rapid growth of my country’s foreign trade imports and exports. According to our monthly online questionnaire survey data of nearly 3,000 foreign trade export companies, in the second half of last year, the index of new export orders fell in four months compared with the previous month. Especially in the fourth quarter, it fell for three consecutive months. month down.
Second, my country’s low-cost comparative advantage in foreign trade imports and exports continues to weaken, and the decline in investment in China’s manufacturing industry from developed countries has inhibited imports and exports. Although my country’s export competitive advantage still exists, its comparative cost advantage is changing, including labor, financing and other operating costs continuing to rise, resource and environmental constraints are increasing, and my country’s traditional industrial competitive advantages are weakening. For example, the international market share of my country’s traditional labor-intensive products in developed economies has declined. In the first three quarters of last year, the market share of my country’s seven traditional labor-intensive export products, including clothing and textiles, in the United States and Japan fell by 0.8 and 2.8 percentage points respectively. At the same time, investment in my country’s manufacturing industry from some developed countries has cooled down. In the first 11 months of last year, the actual use of foreign investment in my country’s manufacturing industry dropped significantly, and about half of my country’s foreign trade exports were created by foreign-invested enterprises. of. The decline in the actual use of foreign investment in manufacturing will impose medium-term constraints on exports.
Third, the rapid decline in commodity prices in the international market has driven the growth of my country’s import value. Since May last year, global commodities have continued to fall. The CRB index published by the U.S. Commodity Survey Bureau has dropped from an annual high of 504.5 in May 2014 to an annual low of 437.7 in December, a drop of 13.2%. Global commodity prices The decline has lowered the growth rate of my country’s import value by 3.3 percentage points.
In addition to the above three main factors, risks such as geopolitics and the game of relations between major powers have also had a certain impact on my country’s foreign trade development.