According to Nanjing Customs statistics, Jiangsu ports imported 429,000 tons of cotton from January to November this year, a 33.2% decrease from the same period last year (the same below); the value was 5.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.1%; the average import price was 12,000 yuan per ton. , up slightly by 0.1%. Among them, 11,000 tons were imported in November, a decrease of 49.8%; the value was 130 million yuan, a decrease of 57.5%; the average import price was 12,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 15.4%.
1. The main characteristics of Jiangsu port cotton imports in November
(1) Import volume in November hit a 39-month low, and the average import price continued to fluctuate slightly. The monthly cotton import volume at Jiangsu ports continues to be sluggish, and has fallen sharply for four consecutive months since August. In November, 11,000 tons of cotton were imported, a month-on-month decrease of 13.9%, a new low since September 2011; at the same time, cotton imports The import ton price fluctuated around 12,000 yuan. The average import price in November was 12,000 yuan per ton, a month-on-month decrease of 6.1%.
(2) Imports under special customs supervision and processing trade have both declined significantly. In November, Jiangsu ports imported 6,438 tons of cotton under special customs supervision, a decrease of 26.1%; and imported 3,728 tons of cotton through processing trade, a decrease of 54.5%. The above two together accounted for 93.6% of the total cotton imports at Jiangsu ports during the same period. During the same period, Jiangsu ports imported 693.8 tons of cotton through general trade, a decrease of 85.3%.
(3) Australia is the largest source of imports, and imports from Brazil and Zimbabwe are increasing rapidly. In November, Jiangsu ports imported 6,715 tons of cotton from Australia, a decrease of 36.4%, accounting for 61.8% of the total cotton imports at Jiangsu ports during the same period. During the same period, 1,175 tons were imported from Brazil, an increase of 71.2%; 1,149 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, with no imports in the same period last year.
(4) Private enterprises accounted for nearly 80% of imports, while imports from state-owned enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises decreased significantly. In November, private enterprises at Jiangsu ports imported 8,568 tons of cotton, a decrease of 24.1%, accounting for 78.9% of the total cotton imports at Jiangsu ports during the same period. During the same period, foreign-invested enterprises imported 1,669 tons, a decrease of 72.6%; state-owned enterprises imported 622.8 tons, a decrease of 85.4%.
2. The main reasons for the decrease in cotton imports at Jiangsu ports in November
(1) The rapid rise in domestic cotton stocks weakens import demand. At present, my country’s new cotton is on the market. Due to the large-scale expansion of machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang, and the implementation of the subsidy policy in cotton-producing areas in Xinjiang, which has greatly increased the enthusiasm of cotton farmers to sell cotton, the number of new cotton on the market has increased significantly this year, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of warehousing. According to statistics from the Cotton Warehousing Branch of the China Cotton Association on 148 warehousing member units, as of the end of October, my country’s total commodity cotton turnover inventory was 922,000 tons, an increase of 815,000 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 524,000 tons. While the market demand in the downstream textile industry has not yet improved, the increase in domestic cotton supply and rising inventories have correspondingly weakened import demand.
(2) The downturn in my country’s textile industry and the enhanced substitution effect of cotton yarn have suppressed the demand for cotton. Affected by factors such as international economic turmoil, sharp fluctuations in cotton prices, and rising labor costs, the domestic textile industry continues to be in a downturn. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to October this year, the added value of my country’s textile industry increased by 6.5% year-on-year, a growth rate that was 2.5 percentage points lower than the 9% growth rate in the same period last year. The sluggish downstream market has caused domestic cotton demand to continue to decline, from a high of 12 million tons of annual demand to annual consumption of about 8 million tons in the past two years. In addition, many companies are subject to my country’s cotton import quota restrictions and have changed imported cotton to imported cotton yarn to meet cotton demand. In the 2013/2014 cotton year (2013.09~2014.08), my country imported a total of 2.025 million tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. According to China Customs statistics, from January to October 2014, my country imported a total of 1.64 million tons of cotton yarn. The slowdown in the growth of the domestic textile industry and the increased substitution of imported cotton yarn have jointly weakened the demand for imported cotton.
(3) Global cotton prices continue to decline, and import wait-and-see sentiment increases to curb imports. Since global cotton prices reached their peak in early 2011, cotton prices have been in a downward trend for a long time. Since the beginning of this year, affected by the downturn in the textile industry and sluggish market demand, cotton prices in the international market have continued to fall. In addition, the U.S. government predicts that global cotton production will exceed demand for five consecutive seasons. On November 24, New York cotton futures prices fell to per 58.53 cents per pound, the lowest level since 2009; on the same day, the main cotton contract CF1505 of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange hit a low of 12,300 yuan per ton in the past five years. Affected by this, in order to avoid cost inversion and reduce losses, domestic downstream companies have reduced inventories and bought and used as they go. According to a sample survey by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of November 13, the average cotton inventory usage days of the sampled companies was approximately 24.6 days, a decrease of 15.2 days year-on-year. Since November, the quantity of foreign cotton in China’s main ports has continued to decrease, with the total amount falling to 890,000 tons. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards imports, which has inhibited my country’s cotton imports.
3. Current issues and suggestions worthy of attention in my country’s cotton industry
(1) The mainland’s cotton subsidy policy is about to be implemented, and domestic cotton prices may be further reduced. In November, the Ministry of Finance and relevant departments held a joint meeting, and after the meeting, the mainland cotton subsidy standard for 2014 was determined to be 2,000 yuan per ton, and the subsidy scope would be Shandong, Hubei and other nine provinces. At this point, following the launch of the cotton target price reform pilot in Xinjiang, my country’s cotton subsidy policy is about to be implemented in 2014. At present, cotton picking in Xinjiang has basically ended, and the delivery progress has reached about 90%. As of the end of October, the total turnover inventory of commercial cotton was 922,000 tons, an increase of 815,000 tons from the previous month., an increase of 524,000 tons year-on-year. Affected by the increase in supply, the market price of cotton has dropped significantly. Entering December, the amount of cotton processed and shipped out of Xinjiang will increase significantly. If the subsidy rules of each province are formulated and announced in time, it will also help accelerate the sale and processing of cotton in the mainland, thereby driving the domestic cotton price to further decline and accelerating the price of cotton in my country. and the pace of integrating with the international market.
(2) Both cotton planting area and cotton price have declined, which is not conducive to the stable development of the industry. Due to oversupply in the global cotton market in recent years, the gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices has been significant, and the cotton planting area in the mainland has continued to decline sharply. In the past 30 years, the cotton planting area in mainland my country has been declining overall. The total planting area in the Yangtze River and Yellow River cotton regions was 5.63 million hectares in 1983. In 2014, the cotton area in the Yangtze River and Yellow River cotton regions is expected to shrink to 2.03 million hectares. And the cotton area in the mainland The reduction may continue for another five years, and may eventually drop below 1.5 million hectares. In addition, since cotton futures prices peaked at 34,870 yuan/ton in February 2011, a super bear market has been running for nearly four years, and the China Cotton Price Index, which represents spot prices, has also fallen again and again. On November 25, China’s cotton price index closed at 14,563 yuan/ton, the lowest in five years. The mainland’s cotton planting area continues to decrease significantly, and cotton prices have fallen again and again, which is not conducive to the stable supply of my country’s cotton market.
(3) The substitutability of cotton yarn has increased, and the cotton import quota system needs to be improved. Affected by factors such as my country’s cotton import quota restrictions and the decline in the quality of imported cotton, many companies choose to change imported cotton to imported cotton yarn. The increasing substitutability of cotton yarn has on the one hand intensified the pressure on domestic cotton inventories. my country’s national cotton reserves already have the largest cotton reserves in the world. As of the end of August, the national cotton reserves were approximately 11.5 million tons, which is approximately equivalent to two years of China’s cotton consumption. The amount of cotton in stock lasts for a long time and the quality drops significantly, making it difficult to meet the needs of domestic textile mills. On the other hand, some production-oriented cotton yarn companies have migrated outward in order to reduce costs. In addition, for small companies that cannot easily obtain cotton import quotas, they can only obtain quotas by purchasing quotas, and they have to pay an additional 3,000-4,000 yuan per ton of quotas, which leads to an increase in business costs. Because when the import quota was formulated, China’s textile production capacity was only more than 30 million spindles, and the current 130 million spindles have caused the quota to be far less than demand. Textile companies are unable to freely use the international market to stabilize costs, and the high cotton price difference weakens the international competitiveness of my country’s cotton textile industry.
