On August 21, China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation released the 2014 version of the “Country Risk Analysis Report” and the risk reference ratings of 192 sovereign countries around the world in Beijing. Luo Xi, general manager of China Credit Insurance Corporation, pointed out when analyzing global economic development trends that turbulence in some regions, slowdown in world economic and trade growth, gradual adjustment of world trade and financial order, and trade protectionism are still prevalent, constitute the four current global country risks. The most important feature is that although the overall global risk level has dropped, the development prospects are still not optimistic.
The new version of the “Report” makes reference ratings for the country risks of 192 sovereign countries around the world based on the country risk assessment model independently developed by Sinosure. At the same time, 67 key countries with close relations with China and promising cooperation prospects were selected to examine a country’s risks from four dimensions: political risks, economic risks, business environment risks and legal risks. Through structured analysis, all-round and multi-level The risk status and evolving trends of these countries were carefully assessed. Compared with the 2013 country risk reference rating, in 2014, the country risk level decreased and the rating was upgraded for 28 countries, including: Kuwait, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Georgia, Italy, Spain, Algeria, Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania and other countries. There are 15 countries with increased national risk levels and downgraded ratings, including Ukraine, Afghanistan, Somalia and other countries. Judging from the adjustment results, the countries whose ratings have been upgraded are mainly some Western and Central and Eastern European countries. Their economies have bottomed out and rebounded, investor confidence has increased, and a gradual economic recovery can be expected in the future. The countries whose ratings have been downgraded are mainly some Asian and Developing and emerging countries in Africa are greatly affected by geopolitical turmoil and external economic risk impacts, and may face greater resistance to social and economic development.
From a regional perspective, in North America, uncertainty about U.S. economic policy adjustments is an important risk factor. The risks in the European region are mainly reflected in the following: First, the European economy is difficult to get rid of deep-seated and complex problems such as structural imbalances, insufficient endogenous power, and economic deleveraging. The economy still faces great resistance to achieving a strong recovery. Risks in Asia are multi-layered, diverse and complex. Political risks in Africa are relatively prominent, political stability and investment environment are poor, and policy continuity is weak. The economies of Latin American countries are generally recovering, but the economic prospects are not optimistic and are vulnerable to changes in external demand and capital flows.
