The latest data in May shows that exports have gradually returned to normal.
“In the next few months, there will be many more favorable factors than unfavorable factors, and foreign trade is expected to continue the momentum of stabilization and recovery. However, to achieve the expected development goals, the task is still relatively arduous.” Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson Shen Danyang told reporters present at the Ministry of Commerce’s monthly press conference yesterday.
A series of “stabilizing foreign trade” policies recently introduced by various departments of the State Council and major foreign trade provinces indicate that the central government is working hard to ensure the implementation of policies to achieve the overall goal of “stabilizing growth.”
The latest positive signal is that the “Notice of the General Office of the State Council on Further Strengthening Trade Policy Compliance” (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”) was released on the Chinese government website yesterday.
The reporter learned that the Ministry of Commerce’s requirements for compliance review have finally been implemented after 2 to 3 years. The “Notice” assigns the Ministry of Commerce to be responsible for the compliance of trade policies in various regions and departments, and to review whether policy formulation complies with relevant WTO regulations.
This shows that China’s overall trade policy will pay more attention to international mainstream standards and be more open. On the one hand, this provides an overall idea for the recently intensively introduced trade policies; on the other hand, it can avoid some policy disputes, such as the “independent innovative products” policy that caused disputes among foreign companies in China a few years ago.
Intensive introduction of foreign trade policies
After the State Council issued the “Several Opinions on Supporting the Stable Growth of Foreign Trade” (hereinafter referred to as the “Several Opinions”) in mid-May, various departments ushered in a period of intensive introduction of policies to “stabilize foreign trade”.
From the 16 items in the “Several Opinions” to the 36 detailed rules, there are currently 20 items issued by the Customs, 15 items issued by the State Administration of Taxation, 18 items issued by the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, 11 items issued by the Central Bank, China International Trade Promotion Among the four items issued by the committee, there are nearly 120 measures on “stabilizing foreign trade” by central-level departments alone.
In addition, Guangdong Province has issued 25 regulations, Jiangsu has issued 24 regulations, and Tianjin has issued 21 regulations.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, conducted a systematic study on these policies. He told reporters that if the policies to be launched next are included, the overall number may reach 400 to 500.
He believes that the policies issued by various departments and localities can be understood based on local conditions, but there may be situations where operations or policy interpretations are inconsistent, and each has his or her own reasons.
Therefore, it is a reasonable way for the Ministry of Commerce to review whether the policy is compliant from the perspective of international trade rules.
Shen Danyang also said that Document No. 19 (“Several Opinions”) is very important and will play an important role in the next step of foreign trade exports, imports, transformation and upgrading, and stable development. The Ministry of Commerce has made the implementation of the opinions a top priority.
The Ministry of Commerce’s survey of more than 1,900 key foreign trade companies across the country shows that the export confidence index in May has reached 108.9, which has been above the critical line for three consecutive months, indicating that exports will continue to improve in the second half of the year.
Forecasts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the China Lixin Risk Management Research Institute also show that foreign trade growth is expected to rebound more significantly in the second half of the year. The main unfavorable factor is that the foundation for stabilizing external demand is not very solid, and my country’s traditional export advantages tend to weaken. In terms of imports, affected by weak domestic demand, import confidence is relatively weak.
Zhao Zhongxiu, Vice President of the University of International Business and Economics, also told reporters that this year’s general environment is actually conducive to the growth of foreign trade. For example, the depreciation of the RMB over the past few months has objectively served as a stress test for foreign trade companies; the global economy is also recovery. Therefore, the key reason to protect foreign trade is actually to protect employment.
Citing data, he said that the number of new college graduates this year reached 7.27 million, compared with 6.29 million in the same period last year. Data is growing rapidly, but the number of new jobs is limited. This is a trend phenomenon.
An important document is being drafted
In terms of US dollars, my country’s total import and export value in May was US$355.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Among them, exports were US$195.47 billion, an increase of 7%, an increase of 6.1 percentage points from April; imports were US$159.55 billion, a decrease of 1.6%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from April. In the month of May, the actual amount of foreign capital used was US$8.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%.
Exports in May are returning to normal levels, while imports are lower than market expectations. At the same time, the actual amount of foreign investment utilized has declined year-on-year.
This shows that domestic demand may still be weak and the road to recovery of foreign trade is not smooth.
Data released yesterday showed that in May, the actual amount of foreign capital used was US$8.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. Since foreign investment is related to project implementation, low data in a single month does not represent the trend for the entire year.
However, although the actual use of foreign investment in May declined year-on-year, the actual use of foreign investment in the service industry has continued to grow, and the proportion of actual use of foreign investment in the service industry has also increased.
Shen Danyang said that in recent years, the proportion of the service industry in China’s use of foreign investment has been expanding. “The areas where the service industry is open to the outside world willIt is getting wider and more numerous. Therefore, this is a trend characteristic and there should be no major reversal. ”
Regarding the issue of the Ministry of Commerce’s promotion of the use of foreign investment in the service industry, Shen Danyang said that it is currently studying closely to further promote relevant policies for the opening up of the service industry and the development of service trade, and is drafting a very important document focusing on building a new open economic system. document.
