According to statistics, India’s cotton yarn export volume in April 2014 was only about 90,000 tons, a year-on-year decline of nearly 25%, significantly lower than the average monthly export volume of 120,000 tons in 2013, but corresponding to the United Nations Commodity Trade Recent data released by the statistical database (UNComtrade) shows that India has defeated its competitors such as Italy, Germany and Bangladesh to become the world’s second largest textile exporter. According to statistics from relevant US departments, the United States imported US$613 million in clothing from India in April. , a year-on-year increase of 4.14%, accounting for 7.61% of the total share, and approximately 22.6% of the amount of textiles and clothing imported by the United States from China. From January to April 2014, the United States imported a total of US$2.347 billion in textiles and clothing from India, a year-on-year increase of 5.96%, accounting for 7.13% of the total U.S. imports, and 20.4% of the total U.S. imports of Chinese textiles and clothing during the same period. Although the proportion is not high, However, India has the largest growth rate except Vietnam (15.5% year-on-year growth). “What is lost is gained in the east.” Some Indian yarn mills and export factories believe that orders for cotton yarn and cotton cloth from Chinese buyers and customers have declined significantly since February, especially the dependence on high-count cotton yarn C32S and below. The purchase of cotton yarn from Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Thailand, Indonesia and other places has increased. However, due to the timely adjustment of export directions by Indian companies (about 50% of India’s cotton yarn exports entered the Chinese market in 2012 and 2013), the purchase of cotton yarn from Europe, America, Africa and other countries has increased. With the development of other markets in Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea, the dependence on Chinese buyers has dropped significantly. According to statistics, in the 2013/14 Indian fiscal year (April 2013 to March 2014), India’s registered export volume of cotton yarn was 1.4145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.53%. During the same period, although China’s total import of foreign yarn reached 2.1272 million tons, of which India’s yarn import volume was only 643,000 tons, accounting for 30.2% of the total import volume, and this downward trend became more obvious from January to April 2014. India’s imported yarn accounted for 33.61%, 34.68%, and 28.19% respectively. ,25.95%. The author believes that the continued decline in the proportion of cotton yarn imported by China from India and Pakistan in 2014 and 2015 is a high probability event, which may lead to Indian cotton yarn speeding up its exit from the Chinese market. The reasons are as follows:
1. The choice space for Chinese weaving factories and importers has greatly increased. In 2012 and before, the origins of imported cotton yarns in China were concentrated in Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, etc., and the specifications were only C7S-C32S. The import volume of carded and combed yarns of 40S and above was very small, but as China The price of cotton and other raw materials has “derailed” from the world market, and spinning labor costs have increased significantly. The door to cotton yarn imports has been “open”. Not only did yarn mills and exporters such as India and Pakistan see opportunities to compete for China’s market share, Uzbekistan, Countries such as Turkmenistan, Turkey, Mexico, and even the United States and Argentina have also begun to aggressively promote cotton yarn to the Chinese market. Due to the widespread existence of the consignment system and the shift of orders from Chinese cloth and garment factories to “small and miscellaneous, tight order placement, and tight delivery,” “The period is short”, the quantity of cotton yarn purchased in a single purchase has dropped significantly, and the competitiveness of India’s large cotton mills and cloth mills has declined.
2. The advantages of Indian cotton yarn in price, quality, delivery and other aspects are gradually being weakened. Since the main raw materials for cotton supplied by spinning companies in India, Pakistan and other countries are Indian S-6, J34, etc., and are 100% roller cotton, although the cotton length, strength and other indicators are guaranteed, the problem of hand-picked cotton yarn is outstanding. In addition, the short lint content is significantly higher than that of Central Asian cotton, African cotton, American cotton, Australian cotton, etc. The quality of cotton yarn spinning C32S and above has gradually been caught up or surpassed by Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Vietnam and other yarn mills. American cotton yarn, Cotton yarns of the same count produced in Turkey, Brazil and other places are even better than Indian cotton yarns in terms of strength, CV value, neps and other indicators. More importantly, most Indian yarns cannot guarantee “including bleaching, dyeing and machine loading”, while Chinese yarns Yarn mills in Asia, the United States, other South America, Taiwan and even some Southeast Asian countries dare to accept orders for “dyed and bleached included” products. In addition, due to the rapid increase in exports of Indian cotton in recent months, it has even surpassed U.S. cotton in the Chinese market. Therefore, the cotton CIF quotation is even higher than that of West African cotton, close to U.S. cotton, and most of the quotations do not adjust with the fluctuations of ICE. The CIF quotation of cotton yarn exports Competitiveness is also declining.
3. Indian yarn mills are also accelerating industrial upgrading, and their products are developing in the direction of high-count, compact spinning, vortex spinning and differentiated fibers. The low-end yarn and low-count yarn markets are gradually giving up to other Southeast Asian, Bangladesh and African countries. nation. Some importers from Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Zhejiang Ningbo, Hangzhou and other places said that since 2012, they have clearly felt that the quotation ratio of cotton yarns with C32S and above counts in Indian yarn mills and exporters has increased, with combed 32S, combed 40S, combed Cotton yarn combed 50S or even combed 60S has become a “bulk commodity”. The product structure of spinning mills with more than 50,000 spindles is basically the same as that of medium-sized cotton spinning mills in my country. The profits of spinning mills have been further improved, and the costs are highly controllable. . In addition, it is worth noting that the proportion of open-end spinning equipment in Indian textile companies is relatively low, and the supply volume of OE7S-OE21S is relatively small. This is mainly due to the greater demand for ring spinning, compact spinning and other products in Europe, the United States and other developed countries. , although the export volume of Indian cotton yarn has declined, profits and the export value of textiles and clothing have continued to grow.
4. The contract credibility of Indian yarn mills needs to be improved. Although a large number of exporters from India, Pakistan and other countries have intervened, buyers have less choice of bank to pay the letter of credit.However, direct communication between buyers and sellers has been reduced, and when quality problems arise, it is not only difficult to claim compensation, but most of them end up being left unsolved. Compared with imported cotton, which has a very complete commodity inspection, inspection, claim, and arbitration system, cotton yarn is more complicated due to production, inspection, delivery and other links, and for weaving factories, printing and dyeing factories, and garment factories, the yarn count is very high. The requirements for various indicators such as count, strength, three yarns, and finishing are very strict. Once a quality problem occurs in a certain indicator of the yarn, almost the entire batch of yarn, the entire container, and the entire contract will be scrapped and claims for compensation will be made. A few large Indian and Pakistani cotton yarn exporters have proposed a pre-payment system for partial losses, and the exporters will coordinate with the yarn mills to pay compensation. However, most exporters only allow buyers to coordinate with the yarn mills to conduct inspections and compensation as soon as possible once quality problems occur. The risk is greater for the buyer. In addition, for some Chinese cloth mills and importers, some Indian yarn mills often fail to ship and ship goods to buyers due to rising cotton prices, rising cotton yarn CIF quotations, and strong domestic demand. Some yarn mills have clearly proposed to raise the price and re-sign the contract, otherwise the contract will be automatically cancelled. Some hope that the buyer will make appropriate compensation for the difference, and some want to reduce the contract supply or have the seller provide the buyer with appropriate financial compensation to cancel the contract. However, in China Most importers have signed sales contracts with cloth mills and downstream demand parties in advance according to the shipping period. Once the price increases, not only the planned profits will be swallowed up, but also some losses may occur.
Some foreign businessmen and institutions believe that as the products of yarn mills in India, Pakistan and other countries move closer to China’s large and medium-sized cotton spinning mills, the competitiveness of the products of both sides is declining. The trend of Chinese cloth mills and garment factories reducing the amount of Indian and Pakistani cotton yarn has formed. Indian exporters and traders will turn to white gray fabrics, high-count and high-density gray fabrics, fabrics, clothing, etc. Downstream products will accelerate their entry into the Chinese market and seize the share of Chinese fabric factories, printing and dyeing factories, and garment factories. Since February 2014, the amount of cotton cloth, fabrics, and clothing imported by customs in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places has continued to increase. The pressure faced by China’s entire cotton textile industry chain is rapidly being transmitted to the terminals.
