National risk reference rating 5 (5/9)
Country risk outlook stable
Economic and trade risks
In 2012, Kazakhstan’s nominal GDP was US$193.10 billion, with a real growth rate of 5.0%, per capita GDP of US$11,440, and foreign trade of US$138.73 billion.
Since 2010, Kazakhstan’s economy has grown steadily and various economic indicators have performed relatively well. Oil and gas resources remain the main driving force for economic growth. In the next two years, the steady growth of its national economy will continue. In 2012, affected by the overall weakness of the world economy, the economic growth rate dropped to 5.0%, but it still showed a basically stable growth trend. Oil and natural gas exports remain the main driving force behind economic growth.
In 2012, Kazakhstan’s inflation rate reached 5.1%, a significant decrease from 2011. According to the forecast of the Central Bank, the inflation rate in Kazakhstan in 2013 will be in the range of 6.2% to 6.4%. On the other hand, according to data released by the Kazakhstan government, the inflation rate in the first half of 2013 was only 2.7%, which was at a low level, which is conducive to the completion of the full-year control target.
Business environment
Since independence, Kazakhstan has adhered to the strategy of attracting foreign investment. Coupled with its rich natural resources, stable domestic political situation, rapid economic growth, the overall investment environment has continued to improve, and the degree of economic exportation has gradually increased. It has now become Central Asia’s foreign investment The most attractive countries for investment. In the “2013 Doing Business Report” released by the World Bank, Kazakhstan ranked 49th among 185 economies and ranked first among Central Asian countries.
Positive factors for Kazakhstan’s investment environment include the government’s welcoming attitude toward foreign investment, stable domestic political situation, and abundant natural resources. Negative factors affecting foreign investment in Kazakhstan include insufficient laws and regulations, insufficient infrastructure construction, the government’s lack of experience and enthusiasm in attracting investment, difficulties in obtaining licenses, a wide variety of taxes and fees, serious official corruption, and the inability of some local enterprises to Trustworthiness, lack of professional labor force, etc.
Bilateral trade
Since China and Kazakhstan established diplomatic relations nearly 20 years ago, China-Kazakhstan relations have always maintained a good momentum of healthy and stable development. Especially after the establishment of a strategic partnership in July 2005, relations between the two countries have achieved new and rapid development. In September 2013, President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Kazakhstan, further deepening relations between the two countries. Kazakhstan has become China’s second largest trading partner in the CIS region after Russia, and the two countries plan to increase bilateral trade volume to US$40 billion in 2015. The commodities China imports from Kazakhstan are mainly energy or raw materials, while the commodities exported to Kazakhstan are mainly clothing and accessories, mechanical and electrical products, and footwear.
After Kazakhstan joined the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in 2010, it gradually increased import fees in accordance with the requirements of the Customs Union. In addition, Kazakhstan has continued to clean up “grey customs clearance” in recent years and has strengthened its efforts to combat customs corruption. These adjustments to trade measures have intensified. This increases the difficulty and cost of customs clearance of goods between China and Kazakhstan.
Overall risk assessment
The political situation in Kazakhstan is relatively stable, the national economy is expected to continue to maintain a steady growth trend, and oil and gas resources will remain the main driving force for economic development. Internally, it continues to optimize the economic structure by vigorously developing resource deep processing and non-resource fields; externally, it continues to expand the space for international cooperation by seeking a balance between the East and the West and joining the customs union. At the same time, the government is vigorously promoting economic diversification, and various development strategies that have been formulated are being gradually implemented, and the ability to resist external risks in the future is gradually increasing.
Judging from various economic indicators, Kazakhstan’s economic prospects are improving in the next two years. China and Kazakhstan have close relations, with more frequent political and economic exchanges and increasingly rich cooperation in various fields.
