At the close of trading in the early morning of the 17th, the settlement price of international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of WTI June crude oil futures closed up $3.71, or 3.56%, at $114.20 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in July closed up $2.69, or 2.41%, at $114.24 per barrel.
The international oil price has once again reached a high of US$110/barrel. As the most basic raw material in the polyester industry chain, crude oil’s rise often drives up the price of polyester raw materials and the production and sales of polyester.
In terms of price, with crude oil rising sharply, PTA began to rise on the 11th. On the 12th, the internal price of PTA rose strongly. On the 13th and 16th, it continued to rise slightly and maintained an upward trend.
On the 12th, the price of polyester filament increased by 100-300 yuan/ton.
On the 16th, some polyester factories raised the price of polyester filament by 50-100 yuan/ton.
On the 17th, prices of some polyester filament factories rose again by 50-100 yuan/ton.
Specifically, since May, POY150D has increased from 7,700 yuan/ton to 8,370 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.70%; DTY150D has increased from 9,200 yuan/ton to 9,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.98%; FDY150D has increased from 8,380 yuan/ton. Ton rose to 9,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.40%.
In terms of production and sales, polyester production and sales showed a pulse curve, with prices rising and falling. After rising high, it fell back again, making it difficult to maintain the high level.
On May 12, the production and sales of the polyester yarn market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang improved slightly, with mainstream production and sales between 70-100%.
On May 13, the production and sales of the polyester yarn market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang improved again, with mainstream production and sales between 100-140%.
On May 16, the production and sales of the polyester yarn market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang began to slow down, and the mainstream production and sales were between 10-50%.
On May 17, the polyester yarn market production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang picked up again, with mainstream production and sales between 100-300%.
The price of crude oil has obviously risen sharply, and the increase in polyester raw materials has been timely and in place. However, the production and sales of polyester seem to be somewhat weak, and the purchasing desire of weaving companies has decreased. What is going on?
Weaving companies make rational purchases
On May 12, the improvement in polyester production and sales was mainly due to the surge in PTA caused by the re-export of 50,000 tons of PX. In addition, downstream demand improved significantly. Weaving factories returned to their buying mentality and concentrated on covering their positions. On the 13th, PTA and polyester prices continued to rise, and weaving factories once again covered their positions, so production and sales improved. However, downstream demand is limited after all, and gray fabric prices are difficult to rise. Weaving factories are still cautious and begin to return to rationality.
It is difficult to maintain orders for a long time
After investigation, it was found that since May, the order situation in the textile market has improved to a certain extent compared with April. However, from the perspective of the order structure, only some domestic trade orders have improved, while foreign trade orders have still not improved much. It can also be seen from the recent operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang that due to the rebound in orders, the operating rates of looms have increased. Especially in Xiaoshao, Haining, Changshu and other places, the low operating rates of warp knitting and circular knitting machines in the early stage are very obvious. At present, the order acceptance rate of factories has improved moderately, and the operating rate has also increased accordingly.
According to data monitoring from Silkdu.com, in terms of water-jet looms, the operating rate of water-jet looms in Shengze was 69%, an increase of 2% from last week; in terms of circular knitting machines, the operating rate of large circular knitting machines in Shaoxing was 38.74%, an increase of 2% from last week. increased by 2.19%; in terms of warp knitting machines, the average operating rate of warp knitting machines in Haining was 42.98%, and the start-up rate increased by 2.98% from last week.
In a short period of time, the demand in the textile industry will still be dominated by domestic demand and “walk on one leg”. The fundamentals of oversupply are difficult to change. Under such circumstances, there is no basis for continued rise in raw material prices.
The textile market will usher in the off-season
As the weather gets hotter, the traditional off-season is getting closer and closer. According to the rules of previous years, after entering June, it is usually the stage when textile companies start to accumulate inventory. In other words, even if orders are improving now, it will be difficult to sustain. Once the traditional off-season arrives, the market may once again fall into sluggish conditions.
During the research process, it was found that textile people generally felt that after the middle of this month, the market began to weaken significantly compared with the first half of the month, and the market showed signs of weakening. Past business experience also tells them that the textile market is about to enter the off-season. With the market under heavy pressure in the first half of the year, when the hard-earned demand is about to fade, textile companies are unlikely to buy into the rising raw materials, and it will be difficult for raw material prices to keep rising.
Summarize
In general, high production and sales cannot be sustained without a substantial improvement in terminal orders. In addition, downstream weaving companies have reported a lack of profits. Coupled with the current high inventory pressure, it is difficult to improve the low operating situation of weaving operating rates. After this concentrated replenishment of positions, if market orders cannot materially improve in the later period, the market will experience another period of low production and sales.Expect. When the epidemic hits the off-season, Boss Bu’s life may become difficult again…
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