This week! The polyester leader expanded, PTA hit the daily limit at the opening, and the RMB exchange rate broke through 6.8…
Let’s take a look at what’s new this week!
The six major listed polyester leaders “expansion knife”
Currently, China’s chemical fiber industry has become, and will continue to become, an important source of high-quality listing resources to our country’s and even the global securities markets. The group characteristics and trends of China’s chemical fiber listed companies are changing day by day. They have experienced pain, cultivation, redemption, adjustment, transformation, acceleration… and their industry investment value is also increasing day by day.
Judging from the specific situation of enterprises, while demand is facing a significant reduction, the expansion of production capacity in the middle and upper reaches of the polyester industry chain is still in progress, causing the industry chain to face a certain mismatch of supply and demand. Enterprises that implemented a balanced upstream and downstream integrated development strategy earlier have demonstrated good competitive advantages and risk resistance in the process of coping with this severe market situation.
As vaccinations increase, control measures are gradually relaxed overseas, and the global economy gradually recovers, consumer demand including textiles and clothing begins to recover. Coupled with rising crude oil prices, the absolute prices of energy and chemical products rebound sharply. Domestic The leading polyester companies have achieved relatively outstanding results in 2021.
In 2021, whether from a year-on-year or two-year average perspective, the operating income of the six leading polyester companies all achieved positive growth year-on-year. Hengli and Rongsheng are two companies that have achieved the integration of the polyester industry chain. The relatively fast growth rate reflects the good ability of integrated enterprises to withstand pressure. Judging from the revenue share of the six companies in the petrochemical and polyester chemical fiber industries, upstream expansion, especially leading companies in the industry supported by large-scale refining and chemical production capacity, can realize the growth of the entire industry chain when faced with drastic fluctuations in product prices. Profits are not limited to a certain link, and the ability to resist risks is relatively excellent.
In 2021, as global epidemic prevention and control becomes normalized, overseas economies gradually recover, and demand for textiles and clothing picks up, the profit margins of leading polyester companies will see a significant improvement in 2021. At the same time, the overall price of upstream raw materials is on an upward trend, and the product prices of polyester companies are also rising accordingly. With the overall degree of expansion in the midstream and upstream being greater than that of the polyester end, the price difference between polyester and raw materials is widening, which also makes the profitability of leading companies less significantly improved.
The editor has something to say: From the perspective of the polyester segment, the current polyester production capacity of the six leading polyester companies has exceeded 50%, and the company’s voice continues to increase. Judging from the later production status, there are still many layouts of leading manufacturers. Since the profitability of the polyester industry is greatly affected by the price of raw materials, especially oil prices, some small and medium-sized enterprises have weak technology, incomplete industrial supporting facilities, and weak ability to withstand risks. In the future, they will be gradually eliminated and merged and acquired during the industry development cycle. avoid.
The RMB breaks through 6.8!
On the afternoon of May 12, the US dollar against the offshore yuan broke through 6.82, falling about 600 points during the day, hitting a new low since September 2020. In the onshore market, China Currency Network showed that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 6.7292, down 6.79% from the highest point this year of 6.3014.
For textile foreign trade companies, the impact of exchange rate changes is very complex.
Generally speaking, the depreciation of the RMB is a benefit to export companies, because the US dollars they receive during settlement can be exchanged for more RMB. For example, when the exchange rate is 6.3, 1 million U.S. dollars can be exchanged for 6.3 million yuan; when the exchange rate is 6.7, it can be exchanged for 6.7 million yuan, which is equivalent to an increase in income of 400,000 yuan.
Although the depreciation of the RMB can increase certain profit margins, the operations of textile companies are complex and cannot be generalized.
Compared with the impact of exchange rate changes, textile export companies are currently facing two more difficult problems. One is reduced orders, and the other is rising costs.
Boss Bu said that this year’s “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” prices are much different from previous years. Especially in April, affected by the epidemic, many customers who originally wanted to place orders have turned to wait-and-see, and the number of orders has been significantly reduced.
As the world’s largest economy, the United States’ inflation rate rose by 8.3% year-on-year in April 2022, encountering the most serious inflation crisis in 40 years. Since there is no good “reservoir” to accommodate this part of the funds, the funds naturally flow to commodities. Then we saw crude oil prices exceeding US$110, PTA at the daily limit, and polyester filament continuing to rise.
The editor has something to say: Chemical companies above designated size can protect prices or even increase product prices by reducing production shutdowns to cope with inflation and maintain profits. However, for cloth bosses facing the terminal textile market, business is not good now and it is a buyer’s market. , the bargaining space is very small, so it is difficult for cloth prices to rise.-group=”1″ src=”http://pic.168tex.com/Upload/News/image/2022/05/17/20220517085640_3192.png” alt=”” />
In terms of weaving, the operating rate of downstream weaving enterprises increased slightly. After May Day, the load of factories gradually increased during the early holidays, and with the relaxation of environmental protection policies, the start-up load of local water-jet looms increased overall. However, due to order restrictions, the increase was limited, so the start-up rate rose to 69%. The number of orders received has increased compared with last week, and the delivery speed of gray cloth has improved slightly. Therefore, the inventory of gray cloth has dropped to about 35.1 days.
In terms of printing and dyeing, this week, the number of gray fabrics entering the warehouse has increased compared with last week. Affected by the rising prices of upstream polyester raw materials, the transaction atmosphere in the downstream market has improved. Domestic trade received support from summer orders and the circulation speed accelerated. This week, the order-taking atmosphere of most printing and dyeing factories has improved slightly, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing factories has increased slightly to 65%. In terms of delivery time, the quantity of gray fabrics entering the warehouse is average, and the general delivery time is about 5-7 days. Some busier manufacturers require more than 10 days.
Outlook
Now that the domestic epidemic is gradually under control, domestic production and logistics order have begun to recover. It may not be long before the orders that were previously on the sidelines will come back.
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