Risks outweigh opportunities, and crude oil rose sharply yesterday! This makes business purchasing decisions more difficult. In addition, the epidemic control measures in some light textile markets in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong and other places have been strengthened. In addition, the volume of clothing orders is less than in previous years. The enthusiasm of traders and weaving factories in coastal areas for inquiry and purchase has continued to decline, and the replenishment time has been repeatedly postponed.
It is difficult to increase the price of gray fabrics, but the dyeing costs are rising!
Some companies said that the current price of gray fabrics changes with the price of raw materials, but the change is not significant. Even if it increases, it will not last long. The fabric cannot keep up with the increase and cannot rise. The main reason is that the downstream industry has not taken action and it is difficult to support the price increase. Moreover, cooperative dyeing factories have recently begun to increase prices.
Recently, printing and dyeing factories have informed customers that dyeing fees will be increased significantly. Direct dyeing will generally increase by 500-600 yuan per ton, and secondary styling will increase by 1,000 yuan per ton. Recently, geothermal power plants in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong have also raised steam prices, resulting in a significant increase in dyeing factory costs, which can only quickly shift the pressure to downstream fabrics, clothing and other customers.
A thermal power plant in Shaoxing recently issued a notice. He said he did not rule out that gas prices would rise significantly this month. Steam price is a significant expense in the operating costs of printing and dyeing plants. Therefore, as long as the steam price increases, it will definitely reduce the profits of printing and dyeing factories.
Therefore, the notice also recommends that the printing and dyeing factories in the area arrange production reasonably, try to avoid the peak period of high coal prices, and make advance notice of the increase in dyeing processing fees! The increase in operating costs of printing and dyeing plants will, to some extent, lead to an increase in dyeing processing fees.
However, it is currently difficult to directly transfer the increase in dyeing fees to consumer terminals. Textile and clothing export orders have been weak since 2022. If the quotation is increased, the loss of orders may be accelerated.
Upstream and downstream are also suffering
Nowadays, great pressure comes from the fact that downstream demand has been affected by various disturbances and cannot recover. From the upstream side, the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine has passed for more than half a month. Geopolitics stirred up again yesterday. Crude oil rose by 8% overnight, and the price of crude oil rose by 8% overnight. The price exceeded US$100, but in the face of lightning-fast raw materials, polyester filament obviously cannot keep up with the pace, and polyester filament has also entered the stage of continuous promotion. Therefore, from the upstream end, it will not bring any substantial benefits to polyester filament in the short term.
The upstream side is currently affected by the situation and is experiencing violent fluctuations that are difficult to change for a while. As mentioned earlier, the improvement in the downstream side comes from the difficulty in recovering demand. The first reason is that there is still no improvement trend in downstream weaving levels. According to statistics from Silkdu.com, the weaving operation rate this week has not increased compared with last week and remains at around 73%. The current operation rate of enterprises will either remain the same. Lack of orders, or the idea of reducing the operating rate due to the impact of the epidemic and financial constraints. The inability to increase the operating rate means that demand is difficult to increase, and without demand as support, the market will be flat;
The second reason is that the current inventory pressure of weaving companies is greatly affected by factors such as the foreign trade market and the appreciation of the RMB. According to statistics from Silkdu.com, the current inventory of weaving companies has risen to about 34 days. This has put a lot of pressure on the funds of weaving companies. Finally, looking at the sales in the noodle market, except for the products that are currently in demand in the current season, the sales of other products can be said to be struggling. However, the volume of hot-selling products is not large, and there has been less proofing recently, so order cancellations are even more normal.
Moreover, from the perspective of the polyester industry itself, inventory is on the rise, and polyester yarn production and sales are currently in a bleak and difficult-to-increase trend. But after all, it is now the traditional peak season, and orders will tend to improve, and some companies also said that their orders are in good condition. With the support of these factors, the polyester filament market still has the conditions and foundation for upward growth. As long as downstream demand improves, it is only a matter of time before the market becomes active.
For now, the only cure is to wait for demand to recover. Textile people, hang in there!
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