During this period, the textile market has experienced great ups and downs. First, the situation in Russia and Ukraine caused crude oil to surge, and then polyester filaments continued to rise. However, the epidemic has delayed the recovery of downstream domestic and foreign trade demand. In the past few days, as the situation in Russia and Ukraine has worsened, Gradually easing, crude oil began to fall again. As of March 15, WTI fell by 6.32 to US$103.01, and Brent crude oil fell by 5.77 to US$106.9.
Raw materials are difficult to increase
Since mid-February, the center of gravity of international oil prices has continued to move upward due to the tense and complex geopolitical situation. Against this background, international oil prices have continued to rise and hit new highs. The cost side has become the main theme supporting the PTA market. PTA follows crude oil grow rapidly. Recently, there is news that the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has turned for the better, and a peace agreement is expected to be signed. In addition, some foreign countries have called on OPEC+ to speed up production increases. International oil prices have fallen, and PTA prices have also fallen. As of March 15, PTA’s main 2205 contract The closing price was 5,700 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 4.52%.
PTA restart and maintenance coexist
Demand follow-up is weak, and PTA’s processing fees are also low. Moreover, PTA is still in the production cycle. In the past two years, PTA has continued to have new devices put into production.
At present, the restart time of Yisheng Ningbo’s 2 million tons is postponed to be determined, Yisheng New Materials’ two sets of units maintain one and a half operations, Yizheng Chemical Fiber’s 350,000 tons unit was shut down in early March, and Sichuan Energy Investment’s 1 million tons planned to stop for a week starting last weekend. Both Yangzi Petrochemical’s 650,000-ton and Zhuhai Ineos’ 1.25-million-ton units are expected to undergo maintenance in late March; Shaoxing Tiansheng Chemical Fiber Polyester Filament Unit will overhaul some production lines on March 15, reducing production by 450 tons/day, involving the variety FDY, and restarting The time has not yet been determined; Hengli Petrochemical Line 1, Jiaxing Petrochemical and Hainan Yisheng and other units are expected to undergo maintenance in April.
The oversupply situation has caused corporate profits to continue to shrink. Although some high-cost devices have been withdrawn from the market, they are still in a cycle of oversupply.
Polyester prices have dropped
On March 15, A-shares and futures turned green, and the main PTA contract was bound to be among them. Of course, PTA has fallen for four consecutive working days. While polyester prices remain stable, PTA has fallen so sharply, which will inevitably increase polyester profits. As of March 14, polyester profits were 150D FDY 324 Yuan/ton, 150D POY 524 Yuan/ton, 150D DTY 350 Yuan/ton.
But then again, since the resumption of work, the polyester factory has not undergone major overhauls. In the early stage, the price was increased due to cost support. However, due to the constraints of the epidemic and foreign situations, it is difficult for the terminal demand to be strong, and the downstream attitude is cautious. As a result, production and sales are not as good as before.
The overall inventory pressure on polyester is increasing, and the overall load on the polyester end is also rising. High costs and low profits support prices, but high inventory and low demand can only drag down its upside. On March 15, some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang carried out price reduction promotions for polyester yarns, ranging from 100-200 yuan/ton. However, orders for downstream weaving cannot come out of thin air in today’s environment, and the inventory of weaving companies has now risen to about 33.5 days. During today’s promotion, apart from just needing to replenish their inventory, most users are still cautiously stocking up.
Textile people are really having a hard time at the moment. The end-use clothing market has been in a downturn due to the epidemic in various regions. Logistics has been hampered and cloth sales have been sluggish. Dyeing factories are also preparing to increase prices. They are afraid to stock up on raw materials, and profits are even more pitiful. Can “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” come again?
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