Many of the recent hot searches have been around the situation between Russia and Ukraine, and changes in oil prices have also become a matter of great concern to everyone. Nowadays, I can’t bear to see the jumping numbers even when I fill up with gasoline. I wish I could grow wings and fly to work. A hot search topic in the past two days, #International oil prices may soar by US$200 per barrel, almost shocked people. Hot searches claim that the surge in international oil prices has caused the average domestic gasoline price in the United States to exceed the integer mark of $4 per gallon. Some insiders worry that the imposition of sanctions on Russian energy exports may cause international oil prices to soar to US$200 per barrel.
Since March, Brent crude oil has reached a maximum of US$41 per barrel in just 5 trading days, with a maximum increase of nearly 42%. As the geopolitical situation changes rapidly, new history is witnessed every day. Although the amount on the hot search is a bit exaggerated, the logic of the matter is not too unexpected. If sanctions on energy exports continue, world inflation will be inevitable.
Polyester production will be reduced
At present, cost-driven is still the main reason for the increase in polyester filament prices. As an indispensable energy source, the rise of oil will inevitably have a boost to the products downstream of its industrial chain. Of course, the price of polyester filament will continue to rise as a result. Since the promotion on February 28, polyester filament has experienced three increases. Specifically, since February 28, POY150D has increased from 8,000 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5%; DTY150D has increased from 9,600 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.73%; The price rose from 8,425 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.64%.
But at present, polyester yarn is rising, but downstream demand cannot keep up. The downward transmission of high crude oil prices is constantly blocked, and polyester manufacturers have also released plans to reduce production. It is reported that a 200,000-ton polyester staple fiber plant in Jiangyin and Chuzhou each plans to be shut down for maintenance in mid-March and the end of March. Two polyester factories in Xiaoshan plan to shut down for maintenance at the end of March and early April, involving 180,000 tons and 360,000 tons respectively, supporting polyester filament. Under the high oil prices, the demand for terminal orders is weak. Weaving companies mainly need to purchase, and the inventory pressure of downstream polyester finished products is great. POY, FDY, polyester staple fiber, polyester chips and other varieties have recently suffered losses, and are facing considerable pressure. . The current high cost, high inventory, low demand, and low profit situation of polyester filament cannot be alleviated immediately, and companies may start a shutdown and production reduction mode.
Polyester yarn is difficult to move under pressure
Today, polyester yarn manufacturers have raised the price of polyester yarn by 50 yuan to 100 yuan. But production and sales are not pretty. We should also clearly see that the current situation is not very optimistic. First of all, the filament inventory of polyester factories is still maintained at a relatively high level. According to the statistics of China Silk City Network, the current polyester market The overall inventory is concentrated between 24-28 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 24-30 days, FDY inventory is around 21-24 days, and DTY inventory is around 25-28 days.
The recovery of the downstream weaving industry is also average, and the current operating rate is mostly maintained at around 70%. In this case, polyester factories are driven up by costs but have no significant effect on reducing inventory. However, this time due to the impact of the epidemic, the cost side has skyrocketed, and polyester yarn has been unable to follow the sharp rise in raw materials. Some of them have been affected by demand, so cash flow has shrunk severely. Under the current situation of high supply, weak demand and high inventory, polyester filament will rely more on cost-side support in March. At present, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is volatile. In the short term, oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. With the support of the cost side, polyester filament yarns are also expected to rise, but the upward path may be bumpy.
All in all, we cannot change the situation, and we can only use force to cover up the impact on the market. I believe there will always be a better day!
</p
