Fell! Fell! Fell! Say important things three times! As Ukraine agreed to remain neutral, crude oil finally stopped rising overnight. New York crude oil April futures fell by $15 to settle at $108.70/barrel, and Brent May futures fell by $16.84 to settle at $111.14/barrel.
It can be seen that everyone in the circle of friends was going crazy yesterday. The price of polyester filament will be raised again on March 10 in an attempt to get downstream weaving companies to buy filament. However, the drop in crude oil has caused polyester factories that were originally thinking of restoring cash flow to put away their money. In response to the idea of price increase, polyester yarn prices of mainstream manufacturers reported stable today.
Compared with polyester, which can remain stable, PTA and ethylene glycol are not so strong. PTA futures fell to the limit today, and the PTA futures price closed at 6024 in the afternoon, down 528 from yesterday’s closing. While the price of polyester yarn remains stable, the sharp decline of PTA will inevitably increase the profit of polyester yarn. Today, the profit of polyester yarn is 140 yuan/ton for 150D FDY, 340 yuan/ton for 150D POY, and 350 yuan/ton for 150D DTY. Ton.
But are the polyester factories really happy about this? Obviously the answer is no! In the state of “price but no market”, no matter how high the profit of polyester yarn is, it is just a statistic. As long as you don’t lose money, the current international situation is unclear and crude oil prices may skyrocket at any time. Sluggish production and sales and visible inventory Growth is their biggest concern!
According to long-term data tracking, we found that the production and sales of polyester factories have not exceeded 100% for five consecutive days. Although there were three price increases to stimulate downstream stocking, the overall production and sales are still unsatisfactory, and the highest one was barely 100%. Therefore, the editor believes that with the situation in Ukraine recently easing and costs plummeting, polyester factories are very likely to choose one-day promotions in order to achieve the purpose of destocking.
When the growth of polyester raw materials slows down and sales bottlenecks appear, the situation in the downstream of the textile industry is not so impressive. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, orders are still mainly small and medium-sized orders, and gray fabric inventories are also piling up. However, Maybe this is a good time to buy gray fabric?
First of all, the price of crude oil is still above the 100-yuan line. In the textile industry chain, industries closer to crude oil are more sensitive to changes in crude oil prices. Just like today, the plunge in crude oil has directly affected the prices of bulk commodities such as PTA and ethylene glycol. Polyester just broke a price increase plan. The international situation is still confusing and no one knows what the next development will be. Once the cannon is fired, oil prices will be king. The cannon may be fired overnight, and the plunge in international oil prices has not yet come.
Secondly, the rise in a short period of time has created a certain bubble. The harder the rise in the early stage, the greater the expectation of overdraft, and the bigger the existing bubble will be. Only by “popping” these bubbles will it help the healthy development of the textile market. And “popping the bubble” takes time.
Thirdly, the response of downstream gray fabrics to the several increases in polyester prices is not very positive. The reason is that the order wave has not yet arrived. When the order wave comes, the demand for increased gray fabric prices will naturally “settlement after autumn”, and the part that failed to rise before will be Make up all the money!
From the perspective of the overall environment, the traditional peak season of Jin San will arrive in the second half of the month. “Let the bullets fly for a while” and don’t be too bearish on the market, but at the same time, you must still maintain a cautious attitude. Only by being careful can you make a long-term success.
</p
