Reach down and keep reaching down! The ups and downs of the raw material market make people sweat! The Russia-Ukraine negotiations will make progress, coupled with the impact of factors such as the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points and the possibility of reaching the Iran nuclear deal, crude oil will never return to its high level! It rises fast, but falls harder! The settlement price of crude oil futures fell on March 16, with WTI falling 1.4 to 95.04 and Brent crude oil falling 1.89 to 98.02.
Polyester continues discount promotion
The sharp rise and fall of crude oil cannot be said to be unexpected. After all, most of the reasons for this market are also affected by the geopolitical situation. It cannot be compared with its fundamental situation. It is not difficult to see that if the situation is a little different, If it eases, the rise in crude oil will come to an abrupt end. The production and sales of polyester yarn have been slow for many days in a row, and polyester yarn companies have no choice but to choose preferential promotions. After some factories proposed promotions the day before yesterday, most companies offered discounts ranging from 100 to 300 yuan yesterday. However, downstream users are still in a sell-off mood and are in urgent demand. Purchase, production and sales are still poor. Today, the polyester factory continues the discount from yesterday. It has to be said that the support on the cost side has collapsed. Simply take advantage of the fact that the polyester yarn is still profitable today and sell the discount to reduce the inventory. At present, the main impact on the polyester yarn is from the downstream. needs.
Where will polyester go from here?
As of March 17, 2022, the price of polyester filament FDY 150D is 8,650 yuan/ton, the price of polyester filament DTY 150D is 9,900 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester filament POY 150D is 8,380 yuan/ton. Compared with last month, polyester filament FDY 150D increased by 150 yuan/ton, polyester filament DTY 150D increased by 250 yuan/ton, and polyester filament POY 150D increased by 380 yuan/ton.
Compared with last month, polyester filament products of various specifications are still at a relatively high level. After all, the initial cost has skyrocketed. For polyester filament, the price increase is far less than the rising speed of costs. However, in the face of declining production and sales, and with many installations expected to restart in March, polyester factories can only carry out promotions.
So can polyester filament just follow the bleak green raw material and go down all the way? The answer I want to say is yes and no. According to the statistics of Silkdu.com, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 21-25 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 21-27 days, FDY inventory is around 18-21 days, and DTY inventory is around 18-21 days. About 22-25 days. Logically speaking, as costs have dropped and polyester yarns are on sale, the downstream should stock up more goods to stimulate production and sales to double.
But in fact, the textile market can be said to be in a difficult situation now. It had finally waited for gold, three and silver, and had finally weathered the easing of the foreign political situation. However, the domestic epidemic broke out in one city after another, which really caught the textile people off guard. The epidemic has affected some textile cities. Although many places can still maintain normalcy, logistics has also been greatly affected, and the costs for downstream companies are even greater. Not to mention spending extra money to stock up on polyester.
It is expected that polyester yarn prices will continue to decline for a period of time. But it won’t always be this way. Regarding the epidemic, today’s response measures can be said to be becoming faster and more targeted. I believe that the market will gradually recover soon. As long as the demand rises, there will be room for upward growth in polyester yarn. After all, when the cost of polyester yarn skyrocketed in the early stage, the increase in polyester yarn was not that great, so there is still room for upward growth. Secondly, the pressure on the cost side has become smaller, and when the demand in the midstream and downstream gradually recovers, there will be an explosion.
Although it is March, it can be described as an “eventful autumn”. Whether it is polyester factories or downstream weaving companies, they still have to be cautious. Waiting for a prosperous day in the textile market!
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