The hottest news in the past two days is definitely the intensification of geopolitical factors. After the sound of a cannon, oil prices are king, but at the same time, the textile market has also undergone tremendous changes.
RMB appreciation
As we all know, RMB appreciation is good for imports but not good for exports. Now, under the influence of geopolitical factors, the RMB exchange rate has played its own emergency hedging function. The RMB exchange rate has been hovering at the 6.3 mark. On February 24, onshore The exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar reached a maximum of 6.3095, standing above the 6.3 mark, and the exchange rate of offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar reached a maximum of 6.3016.
At a time when international crude oil has exceeded 100, the circle of friends of major polyester factories are exaggerating the atmosphere of price increases. Against the background of various price increases in textile foreign trade, downstream companies cannot see much price increases due to the current lack of orders, and their profits Being suppressed again and again, the appreciation of the RMB has undoubtedly made matters worse. In terms of foreign trade, profits are more limited due to factors such as raw material prices and sea freight.
Workers returned to work smoothly
While international crude oil prices are soaring, we are also welcoming textile workers back to work one after another. Most downstream textile and weaving companies have resumed work, and the resumed companies have fully put into production. However, orders are still lacking. In addition, due to factors such as the delay in the return of migrant workers due to poor transportation, most downstream users only maintain low-level operations. According to data from China Silk City Network, the current operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has risen to about 64%, an increase of 6% from last week. From the steady increase in the operating rate, we can see from the side that the situation of employees returning to work has indeed improved compared to before.
The return of employees is undoubtedly good news for the company, because the traditional peak season “Golden Three” of the textile market is not far away. Although the current downstream orders are not very ideal, the market is mainly based on orders before production, and the start-up rate Even if it is not too high, it can still satisfy production, but once it enters the peak season, such a low start-up is far from enough. And recently, some companies have reported that they have received orders one after another and are preparing for the “Golden Three” peak season.
Market performance tends to be cautious
How long will it take for this price increase to be lifted? According to the data of previous years, crude oil has entered the period of breaking 100 three times. These three times are related to geopolitical factors, and after each surge, it will be accompanied by a plunge and then get back on track. Therefore, the next crude oil market It will be very volatile. In terms of raw materials, as the peak season is approaching, raw material prices continue to rise with crude oil. Ultimately, it depends on whether peak season orders can be supported.
After all, the textile market is currently in a cautious state. Orders are mostly placed in small batches. The number of stockpiles in the past has also been reduced. Therefore, the downstream weaving market lacks highlight products and sales are average. Domestic clothing companies are also in a wait-and-see mood. After proofing, they either have nothing to do or wait for a long time for small batch orders.
As for the market outlook, with workers arriving one after another and orders steadily recovering, it is believed that the operating rate of weaving companies will continue to rise, and the stocking time for raw materials is approaching the peak season. Previously, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict ushered in a 250% high on the day the conflict broke out. production and marketing. In the short term, weaving inventories are still high, and domestic and foreign orders will become a breaking point.
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