As the temperature continues to drop, cotton leaves fall off faster, and cotton picking in Xinjiang has reached its peak. From October 10th to 17th, reporters from Futures Daily conducted a comprehensive survey on the cotton production situation in southern Xinjiang. Combined with the recent knowledge of the cotton market situation in northern Xinjiang, the cotton market in the new season has undergone changes that are different from those in the past.
Farm: harvested cotton piles into “snow mountains”
Late autumn During the season, the poplar trees in southern Xinjiang “bloom” with their golden leaves, which together with the endless snow-white cotton fields, the fiery red apples, the burning sunset, and the rolling mountain peaks, form a beautiful landscape painting. During this harvest season, the purchase price of seed cotton has nearly doubled compared to last year, and every cotton farmer has a happy smile on his face. However, a reporter from Futures Daily discovered during the investigation that many cotton farmers are not in a hurry to pick cotton. Instead, they spend more energy leveling out a large area of land on the edge of the cotton field. Why is this?
Hu Youyi, a major cotton grower in Xinhe County, told reporters that this year’s cotton growth and development period was delayed by 7-15 days, and the growth uniformity was not ideal. Some cotton plants had already sprouted lint. There are still a large number of green peaches hanging on some cotton plants, and cotton farmers are waiting for all the cotton peaches to mature before picking. At this time in previous years, most cotton has already been picked, but this year it has just begun. However, this year’s machine picking rate is expected to further increase, and the picking time will be more concentrated. Once picking begins, progress will be rapid, and cotton farmers feel confident. As for why cotton farmers want to level the land on the edge of cotton fields, it is one of the main manifestations of cotton farmers’ reluctance to sell and hold on to goods at a price.
“In previous years, cotton would be sent to ginners for sale immediately after being picked, but this year cotton farmers have higher expectations, especially due to the high purchase prices of hand-picked wadding cotton in the early stages of the launch of new cotton. Stimulated by the boom, many cotton farmers plan to pile the picked cotton on the fields to pay for it.” Hu Youyi said that cotton farmers have large-scale transfers of land, plus contracted land from relatives and friends, so they pick a large amount of seed cotton. There simply aren’t enough warehouses for storage. Therefore, before the seed cotton starts to be picked, a temporary storage place for cotton will be arranged on the edge of the cotton field.
In cotton areas such as Tumushuk City, reporters saw cotton stacks piled up in many cotton fields. Since there are few “egg-laying machines” in southern Xinjiang, most cotton farmers here rent picking machines with a large iron bucket. The seed cotton poured out after picking a full bucket weighs a ton, and soon a “cotton” pile can be piled on the edge of the field. Snow Mountain”.
According to feedback from cotton farmers, some cotton plants this year are still relatively green in the late growth stage, which is also related to the uneven spraying of defoliants by tractors. In some cotton fields, many cotton plants were knocked down by tractors during operation. Compared with the cotton at the edge of the field and the cotton in the field, there are obvious differences in the growth conditions, which resulted in more green peach remaining in the picked seed cotton. with cotton leaves.
Compared with southern Xinjiang, the picking progress in northern Xinjiang is faster, and the proportion of machine picking is higher. At the same time, most cotton farmers also use cotton “egg-laying machines” to improve the quality of the picked cotton. High, less impurities.
Cotton farmers: Once the tarpaulin is covered, it will not be sold
” I won’t pick it for a few days, I’m not in a hurry, the cotton in the field is still growing.” Wen Xinjian, a cotton farmer in Tiemenguan City, said with emotion that when the new season seed cotton was initially launched, the highest purchase price in some areas of northern Xinjiang exceeded 11.5 yuan/kg. But now the ginning factory in southern Xinjiang actually wants to purchase a large amount of cotton at around 10.5 yuan/kg, which is a bit of a “daydream”.
On October 11, a reporter from Futures Daily conducted a survey in Tieguan City’s Cotton District and found that only one of the four surrounding cotton ginning factories was listed for acquisition, but the large vehicles selling cotton There are still quite a few, which is somewhat different from what Wen Xinjian said about cotton farmers being unwilling to sell cotton.
A businessperson from a company in Shandong that is developing the cotton industry in Xinjiang told reporters that the reason for such a phenomenon in the local area shows that there are differences between cotton farmers and ginners. On the other hand, the strong game mentality also shows that both cotton farmers and ginners have internal differences, and everyone’s expectations for the later purchase price of seed cotton are not consistent.
It is understood that with the acceleration of land transfer in Xinjiang in recent years, coupled with the strengthening of management of land and water resources by relevant agencies, and the adjustment of agricultural planting structure, cotton planting in Xinjiang has It is increasingly concentrated in advantageous areas. What is important is that there are more and more cooperation channels and models between cotton farmers and ginners, ginners and agricultural supply companies, ginners and investment institutions and futures risk management companies. The operating procedures and techniques are becoming more and more mature, correspondingly, the financial pressure faced by cotton farmers has been continuously reduced and their income has become increasingly stable. Therefore, after the purchase price of newly produced seed cotton this year opened high and went up, some cotton farmers developed a strong mentality of holding on to their stocks and waiting to sell due to the fact that the cotton output was lower than the previous estimate.
“The cotton picked by our family was sold to the ginner on the same day, but the ginner had a cooperative relationship with us. In the early stage, our selling price was as high as 11.2 yuan. /Kilogram.” Sister Zhu, who contracts 2,500 acres of cotton fields in Hutubi County, said that in previous years, under normal production conditions, a net profit of 2,500 yuan per mu of cotton could be made. This year, it is even worse. The purchase price of seed cotton is 4-5 yuan higher than last year. Kilograms, higher income from cotton planting is changing the future pattern of the cotton industry: First, cotton farmers are more enthusiastic about planting, and large-scale transfer of land for cotton planting has become a mainstream trend; second, foreign investment in the industry.With the price of seed cotton rising, the ginneries under the group basically do not follow the trend in purchasing. In mid-to-late October, the purchase price of seed cotton has dropped somewhat. If you purchase it again at this time, the cost will definitely be advantageous.
During a survey in southern Xinjiang, the reporter found that today’s cotton gins are much more complicated than those in the past. In the past, the cotton gin factory was just a cotton processing workshop with simple business. But now, the cotton gin factory takes on more businesses and has more functions. It can be said that the living environment of cotton gins has changed. For example, in the eyes of cotton industry groups, gins are the channel connecting cotton farmers with downstream textile mills. Industrial groups provide cotton farmers with various agricultural inputs and financing through ginneries, and at the same time sign seed cotton purchase contracts with cotton farmers, taking cotton resources into their hands early, which not only benefits farmers but also facilitates business operations. At the same time, in order to adapt to the needs of downstream textile mills, industrial groups continue to improve cotton quality. They also cooperate with ginners and seed companies to promote cotton varieties, and then use ginners to perform single harvesting, single storage, single processing and other operations. , sell high-quality cotton at a higher price to downstream enterprises with special needs, thereby realizing high value-added benefits of cotton.
Li Junwei, a cotton professional in Alar City, told reporters that seed cotton from northern and southern Xinjiang has been launched one after another. It is estimated that the mainstream price of machine-picked cotton will stabilize at 10.3 yuan/kg, and most of the rolled cotton will be stable at 10.3 yuan/kg. Flower factories will also fully launch acquisitions. In the next 10 days or so, the progress of seed cotton acquisitions across Xinjiang will be greatly accelerated.
Acquisition: Seed cotton quotations are becoming increasingly stable
Futures Daily reporter sorted out 9 The changes in the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton since mid-month have been found to show three stages: opening higher and moving higher, oscillating and declining, and gradually stabilizing. In the first stage, in mid-to-late September, after Xinjiang hand-picked cotton, especially hand-picked wadding cotton, came on the market, the market purchase price opened high. However, because seed cotton was only sporadically on the market at that time, the price at this time was not representative, let alone hand-picked cotton. Cotton wool has special uses and high added value. Entering October, especially during the National Day holiday, boosted by the rise in U.S. cotton prices and the large-scale intervention of foreign investment institutions, with the comprehensive advancement of cotton picking in northern Xinjiang, the purchase price of seed cotton has been rising, and some products have The highest price in the district exceeded 11.5 yuan/kg. In the second stage, faced with the increasingly high purchase price of seed cotton, ginners’ risk awareness increased, cotton farmers waited and waited, and the market formed a game pattern. At this time, relevant agencies strengthened the control of cotton prices, and domestic and foreign bulk commodity futures prices also increased from highs. After falling, ginners began to try to lower the purchase price. The purchase price of seed cotton in some cotton areas dropped directly from 11.5 yuan/kg to 10.7 yuan/kg, and then quoted prices of 10.3-10.5 yuan/kg. Faced with the oscillating decline in prices, cotton farmers still firmly believe that prices will rise again in the future, causing the market to experience a phenomenon of “price but no market” during the peak picking season. The third stage started in mid-to-late October. Due to the combined effects of multiple factors, especially when seed cotton was concentrated on the market and cotton futures prices continued to fall, some cotton farmers began to accept a purchase price of 10.5 yuan/kg, and ginners also expanded their purchases. The market purchase price has gradually stabilized due to the volume, and the purchase price in some production areas has been further reduced to 10.3 yuan/kg.
During the investigation, the reporter found that the seed cotton purchased by the ginnery this year had too many impurities. In addition to picking out the three yarns, the workers hired by the ginnery also had to pick out the green peach and cotton mixed in it. Cotton leaves. However, due to the improvement of processing technology, the relevant reprocessing agencies have strengthened the supervision of high-moisture cotton, especially cotton mixed with water, this year. The quality of processed lint is still good, and some newly produced lint has been sold in small batches at around 23,000 yuan/ton.
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